Can the Golden State Warriors sweep the Dallas Mavericks and go back to the NBA Finals? Massive game with a very close spread. Tip-off starts at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT!
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check out my article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Luka Doncic is basically in a pricing tier of his own on this Game 4 Showdown slate, and rightfully so. Doncic has scored back-to-back games with 40 or more points and is doing everything in his power to keep the Mavericks from being swept. They trail three games to zero but are still one-point home favorites as they try and fend off elimination.
Doncic is being really aggressive lately as well, averaging 16 free-throw attempts per game in his last two games. He has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Doncic not only led the league during the regular season in usage rate, but he leads the playoffs as well. He is also leading the playoffs in drives per game as he has the ball in his hands on nearly every Mavericks offensive possession. Expect another big-time game from Doncic tonight regardless if the Mavericks can find a way to win or not.
He is not only the highest-priced player on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel, but Doncic will also come with the highest projected ownership as well. Don’t get cute; play Luka Doncic.
The Golden State Warriors are one game away from going back to the NBA Finals, which is not all that surprising, seeing how well they are playing when they are fully healthy. Stephen Curry continues to be the head of the snake as he has had a positive Plus/Minus in 12 of his 14 playoff games. Curry’s production isn’t too far from what Doncic is doing with the Mavericks in this series. Curry averages 28 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 6.7 assists in his last three games. Pairing him with Doncic may be tough, especially when looking at the value.
Despite the Mavericks playing at a snail’s pace, Curry has taken advantage of this matchup. When this Warriors offense is clicking, they are nearly impossible to guard. Curry has also averaged 4.7 made 3-pointers per game in this series. Curry is a much better value on FanDuel, but his style of play gives him the upper hand on DraftKings.
Either way, he is a great option and the best Warriors option on the slate by far. If, for some reason getting to Doncic is too difficult on this slate, feel comfortable going to Curry at the discount.
NBA DFS Midrange Picks
This range is filled with Warriors, and we’ll lead it off with Klay Thompson, who has been a little disappointing during the playoffs. He has had a negative Plus/Minus on FanDuel in 12 of his 14 playoff games. On DraftKings, he is the third-highest-priced player on the slate. However, he should benefit if Otto Porter Jr. is unable to play.
Using our On/Off Tool, Thompson had the highest usage rate increase during the regular season when Porter Jr. was off the floor. Thompson looks much better on FanDuel, but proceed with caution.
The top of the midrange for pricing on FanDuel is Jalen Brunson. Despite back-to-back losses, Brunson has picked up his game over the past two outings. He is shooting 58% from the field and 62% from behind the arc while averaging 25.5 points per game.
I much prefer Brunson to Thompson in this DraftKings pricing tier, and I don’t mind pairing him with Doncic either. Win or go home for the Mavericks; expect Brunson to play heavy minutes and continue to be second on the team in usage rate behind Doncic. I love this spot for Brunson.
Andrew Wiggins was sensational in Game 3 for the Warriors. Not only did he have a posterizing dunk over Doncic, but he had a double-double with 27 points and 11 rebounds while shooting 55% from the field. Wiggins has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in every game of this series.
His salary is on the rise, but it is deserving based on how well he is playing right now. Our model has Wiggins projected to play 39 minutes, which is the highest of any Warriors player tonight. He can be inefficient from the field at times, but he has upside.
According to our NBA Model, Draymond Green is the best value in this pricing tier on DraftKings and FanDuel. Green is better suited on FanDuel, where he has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. He has an 88% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he is the eighth-most expensive option.
He has suffered the most due to the margin of victory in this series being 14.3 points per game. The minutes are down, but in the competitive Game 3, Green played 37 minutes, so expect more of the same tonight if this game is close.
During the season, Jordan Poole was incredible. He is still very good, but with a healthy Warriors team coming off the bench, it has certainly cut into his production. Poole can still get scorching hot and hit dagger 3-pointers like he did in Game 3, but the upside is limited.
He has had a negative Plus/Minus on DraftKings in five of his last six playoff games. He has yet to play 30 or more minutes in a game during this series and only attempted four field-goal attempts last game. Poole feels a bit overpriced on this slate, but he’s a tough full fade.
Something has gotten into Kevon Looney recently, and he is playing about as good as he has in his entire career. During this series, Looney is averaging 13.3 points and 9.7 rebounds per game in this series while shooting 78% from the field.
He is taking full advantage of the lack of size from the Mavericks, especially on the glass. His salary has spiked rapidly, but he has a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in 11-straight games. Looney still has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is arguably one of the best plays on the entire slate.
Finally, we get to another Mavericks player with Spencer Dinwiddie, who is coming off his best game of the series in Game 3. Dinwiddie finished with 26 points while shooting 54% from the field and making all eight of his free throws. Dinwiddie will need a repeat performance in order to keep the Mavericks from elimination tonight.
Dinwiddie’s minutes are fully dictated by how well he is playing, which makes him a very strong tournament target. He is difficult to trust in cash games, especially at this salary. Sprinkle him in a few tournament lineups.
Lastly, in this midrange pricing tier, we have Dorian Finney-Smith, who like several of the Mavericks’ role players, plants himself on the 3-point arc and waits patiently for Doncic to pass him the ball for a wide-open look.
Crazy stat for you here — Finney-Smith has made at least one 3-pointer in 39 of his last 40 games. Despite leading the Mavericks in minutes, he has only one game in this series above 20 DraftKings points. If you think the Mavericks can extend this series, Finney-Smith will be another major reason why and needs to be included.
NBA DFS Values & Punts
- Reggie Bullock ($5,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Bullock played 40 minutes in Game 3 and did not record a single point — he shot 0-10 from the field and 0-7 from behind the arc. In this series, 67% of his field-goal attempts come from the perimeter — in this must-win game — I could see him getting hot.
- Maxi Kleber ($4,200 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): He is borderline useless in fantasy if he isn’t hitting from the perimeter. Kleber is shooting 14% from the field and downtown. He has yet to take a shot in this series inside the 3-point line. Kleber is very boom or bust, and he needs to get hot from deep to pay off.
- Otto Porter Jr. ($4,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): He is the best value play on the slate if he is able to go. Porter Jr.suffered an ankle injury seven minutes into Game 3 and didn’t return. He averaged 23.5 minutes and 25.4 DraftKings points per game in the first two games. Monitor his status for Game 4.
- Davis Bertans ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): He can randomly catch lightning in a bottle, but Bertans is only shooting 30% from the field and 13% from behind the arc. His minutes are sporadic but has the upside to play around 15 if this game is competitive, and he is hitting perimeter jump shots.
- Dwight Powell ($2,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): He continues to start for the Mavericks for some reason but has played fewer than 10 minutes in the last two games. Powell has yet to top double-digit DraftKings points in all three games in this series. Powell rarely shows any upside playing so few minutes.
- Moses Moody ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Moody has seen increased playing time in each game of this series. He played five, 10, and then 16 minutes in Game 3. Regardless of the minutes that Moody has received, he still has finished with lower than four DraftKings points in each game.
