The first round of the NBA Playoffs has had plenty of drama, but only one series will need seven games to decide who advances. The Clippers and Nuggets have each won three games, with Game 7 scheduled for Saturday night at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Nuggets won Game 1, Game 4, and Game 5, but the Clippers won Game 2, Game 3, and Game 6 to force a deciding Game 7.
Both teams are healthy and should have their full rotation for an exciting conclusion to this great series on Saturday night. Since it’s the only game on the calendar, the game is available for Showdown contests on DraftKings.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Not surprisingly, Nikola Jokic brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections in Game 7. He has had an excellent series, averaging 1.56 DraftKings points per minute and 64.3 DraftKings points per game with a team-high 27.5% usage rate.
In each of the first four games of the series, he had over 63 DraftKings points fantasy before cooling off with “just” 53.5 DraftKings points in Game 5 and 52.75 DraftKings points in Game 6. He is playing huge minutes and has a huge role when on the floor. He comes with a massive price tag, but if you can make his salary work, he brings enormous upside since he could totally take over Game 7.
With Jokic doing a little less in Game 5 and Game 6, Jamal Murray stepped up and went off for the Nuggets. He had 43 points and 71.25 DraftKings points in the Nuggets’ big win in Game 5 in Denver. He was solid in Game 6 with 48.5 DraftKings points. He has scored over 20 points in five of the six games of the series and has at least 30 DraftKings points in each contest.
He has played the most minutes per game of any player on the slate, and he has shown the ability to come up “clutch” with a big game when the Nuggets need it most, both in this postseason and in past years’ playoff runs. We’ve been excited this season about our partnership with ShotQuality, and in the ShotQuality projections, Murray looks even better than in the FantasyLabs projections.
On the other side of the matchup, James Harden brings a slightly higher ceiling than Kawhi Leonard, but Leonard has been a little more consistent in this series. They both have had excellent production throughout the series. Leonard leads the way with a 28.2% usage rate and an average of 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. Harden is just behind him with a 24.8% usage rate and 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. Harden has a higher ceiling, median, and floor projection, but Kahwi has a better Projected Plus/Minus in a utility spot, checking in second on the slate behind only Jokic.
Leonard has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the six games of the series, producing over 42 DraftKings points in each of the last five games. He had a double-double with 20 points and 11 assists for 55.25 DraftKings points in Game 5 and followed that with another double-double with 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 49 DraftKings points in Game 6.
Harden has been a little more volatile than Kawhi, but he also stepped up in Game 6 with 28 points and 53 DraftKings points while playing 47 minutes. He struggled in Game 5 in Denver with just 11 points, and his shooting will be one of the key deciding factors in Game 7.
Another key factor will be if Ivica Zubac plays like a stud or a mid-range play. He’s not as productive as the other options in this top category, but he has flashed a high ceiling. He had 48.5 DraftKings points in Game 4 in his best game of the series but has been held under 40 DraftKings points in four of his last five, including a disappointing performance in Game 6, when he managed just 25 DraftKings points on 10 points and six rebounds.
The top four stars have been excellent this series, and they’re all great options to consider. Jokic has the highest projections overall, but Murray has great spike upside that he showed off in Game 5.
With so many high-priced producers, for Showdown contests, you may want to go with a cheap Captain to fit in as many stars as possible. If you do go with a stud as your Captain, you’ll have to spend very wisely in other spots on contributing lower-cost options.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
The top five stars discussed above each have salaries over $9,000, and then there’s a huge drop to the rest of the player pool. Aaron Gordon has the next-highest salary at $7,400 and has shown a very high ceiling in this series. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games, with over 30 DraftKings points in each contest. He had the game-winning dunk in Game 4, a series-high 23 points in Game 5, and 19 points in 41 minutes in Game 6.
Gordon has produced 30.1 DraftKings points per game in the series at the rate of 0.76 DraftKings points per minute. He is tricky to fit in with his salary stuck in no man’s land, but if you can add him to your lineup, he brings the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of the mid-range options.
Christian Braun, Russell Westbrook, and Michael Porter Jr. have also been key contributors in the series. Of the three, Westbrook has the highest average, producing 24.6 DraftKings points per game. He missed Game 4 with left foot inflammation and was limited to just nine minutes in Game 3. He returned in Game 5 with 23.25 DraftKings points in 25 minutes and was even better in Game 6, with 14 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, and 37 DraftKings points in 35 minutes.
Westbrook is a high-risk play due to the injury issues, but he has an extremely high ceiling as well and comes at a lower salary than even Braun and Porter. If he is healthy, he is a great value at Captain that allows you to include other stars. There’s definitely bust potential, but his lower salary makes him one of the most important plays to consider. The ShotQuality projections give Westbrook the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all mid-range plays on the board behind just the five stars.
On the other side, Norman Powell, Nicolas Batum, and Kris Dunn have been the mid-range plays getting enough minutes to be solid considerations. Powell has produced 27.5 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 20 points and exceeding salary-based expectations in three of his last four contests.
Batum has had two spike games, with 29.25 DraftKings points in Game 3 and 32.25 DraftKings points in Game 6, but he has been held under 20 DraftKings points in the other four games in the series. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the mid-range options. He comes at a very affordable salary and has a good ceiling despite his volatility.
Boom-Boom Batum is the Clippers’ version of Westbrook, in that he is a little underpriced since he’s risky, but he has a good chance to outperform his salary-based expectations based on our projections and could be the key to unlocking the salary needed in other spots.
Dunn has been a little more consistent but hasn’t had quite as high of a ceiling as Batum. He’s coming off a down game with just two points and two assists for 5.0 DraftKings points in Game 6 but is still averaging 17.7 DraftKings points per game for the series.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Bogdan Bogdanovic ($2,800): Bogdanovic has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players except the top five stars listed at the very top of this article. He is averaging 13.0 DraftKings points per game in this series but flashed a very high ceiling with 18 points and 30.25 DraftKings points in Game 5 in Denver. He’s playing 16.6 minutes per game off the bench and has the best projections across the board for a play under $3,000.
- Derrick Jones Jr. ($2,200): Jones stepped up with a series-high 19 DraftKings points in Game 6. Since the Clippers’ stars are getting more minutes, Jones’ role has been slightly reduced in the postseason, but he still has the potential to return value, averaging 12.5 DraftKings points per game in the series.
- Ben Simmons ($1,200): Simmons played at least five minutes in each of the first five games of the series but did not appear in Game 6. He has at least one blocked shot in four of his five games in this series but hasn’t made much of an impact, averaging just 5.6 DraftKings points per contest.
- Peyton Watson ($1,600): Watson is the only Nuggets’ value play that has appeared in all six games in the series. He’s averaging just 13.0 minutes per game and producing 8.9 DraftKings points per contest. He had a series-high seven points and 12 DraftKings points in Game 6 on Thursday, and he has multiple rebounds in each contest.
- Jalen Pickett ($1,000): Pickett played over five minutes in each of the first four games of the series but didn’t have much impact. He only played two minutes in Game 5 and did not appear in Game 6. He does have some potential to fill in minutes, but he is a high-risk punt play since his role is uncertain.
