On Thursday night, the Oklahoma City Thunder have their first chance to advance to the NBA Finals, where the New York Knicks await the winners of the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder have a 3-2 series lead over the San Antonio Spurs, with two chances to win and advance. The Spurs have been very strong in the series too, though, and will not be an easy out as they look to force a Game 7 on Saturday. Let’s take a closer look at this standalone Game 6 matchup from a DFS fantasy basketball Showdown perspective to help you build your lineup for Thursday’s contests on DraftKings.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
In both the FantasyLabs projections and the ShotQuality projections, Victor Wembanyama has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections for Game 6 and the top Plus/Minus projection in a UTIL spot. His projections and his upside are so much higher than everyone else’s that he makes sense to consider building around, even though his salary is the highest of all players on the slate.
Wemby had a massive 60 DraftKings points in Game 4 when the Spurs won, going off for 33 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, and 3 blocks. It was his 3rd game in the series with at least 60 DraftKings points, and his best statistical game was Game 1’s overtime win, when he hung 84 DraftKings points on the Thunder.
Oklahoma City did a great job on Wemby in Game 3 (41.5 DraftKings points) and Game 5 (38 DraftKings points), and their wins in those two contests are why they have a chance to move on this Thursday. In those two games, Wembanyama was a little more passive and looked to facilitate his teammates more, but he’ll need to step up and be aggressive as the focus of the offense in Game 6.
The other mega-star in this matchup is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who costs just a little bit less than Wemby and comes in 2nd behind him in median, ceiling, and floor projections. SGA has at least 50 DraftKings points in 4 of the 5 games in this series but hasn’t gone off to reach 60 or more in any of the contests.
In Game 5, SGA came up just 1 assist short of his 3rd double-double in the series, handing out 9 helpers to go with a series-high 32 points. He’s averaging 26.2 points, 9.8 assists, 2.0 steals, and 50.1 DraftKings points per game in the series.
SGA’s ceiling isn’t as high as Wemby’s since no one in the world can stuff all the categories in the stat sheet like the 22-year-old Frenchman, but Gilgeous-Alexander is a safer option since he has been more consistent both in this series and in the playoffs overall.
Both stars have gotten good production from their supporting casts in different parts of the series. In both sets of projections, the 3rd-highest and 4th-highest raw projections go to Wemby’s guards, Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox. Fox is especially interesting since he brings so much value at his salary of $7,400 in a UTIL spot.
The veteran guard missed the first 2 games of the series but has produced 33.25, 38.0, and 31.5 DraftKings points in his 3 games since returning, exceeding salary-based expectations in each contest. Fox ramped up to 33 minutes in Game 5, a new series high, and he took a series-high 15 field goal attempts. Since his salary is still a little lower, you can actually build around him as your Captain’s Pick with both Wemby and SGA in UTIL spots if you think both stars will come to play and Fox will turn in good numbers again. You’ll have to go cheap in the rest of your lineup if you go that way, but it is workable.
Castle has proven himself clutch in this series as well and had a series-high 45.25 DraftKings points in Game 5 while playing alongside Fox. He and Fox are definitely not mutually exclusive, and Castle has a better ceiling if you can afford the extra $1,200 to put him in a UTIL spot.
With Jalen Williams (hamstring) questionable after missing the last 3 games and Ajay Mitchell (calf) still out, Chet Holmgren is the only other Thunder player with a salary over $7,000 who is sure to play in Game 6.
Holmgren had been quiet for most of the playoffs but posted 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 35.25 DraftKings points in Game 5, exceeding salary-based expectations for the first time since Game 2 against the Lakers in the last round.
While he definitely has the upside to go off and be a difference-maker for fantasy and in real life, he hasn’t been consistent enough to be counted on as anything but a GPP differentiator. Both Castle and Fox are projected to have better value and better raw production than Holmgren in this matchup.
If you believe in Wemby enough to make him your Captain’s pick and include the other as a UTIL play, you’ll have to spend carefully across the rest of your roster. You can include both at UTIL with Fox as Captain’s pick, which gives your lineup lots of upside if Fox continues to outplay his slightly reduced price point. Castle also has the potential to go off with a huge, multi-faceted game, while Holmgren is best used for GPP differentiation rather than as a key piece to build around.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
[Edited Text] From the midrange, one elite value play stands out in both the FantasyLabs and ShotQuality projections. Isaiah Hartenstein has the 2nd-highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate, behind only Wemby.Hartenstein’s salary in a UTIL spot is only $5,800, and building around him in a Captain’s Pick spot is also very doable if you want to stuff multiple studs into UTIL spots, including both Wemby and SGA.
Hartenstein had a dismal Game 1 with only 13 DraftKings points in 12 minutes, but he has played more minutes and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the 4 games since then, resulting in 2 double-doubles and 30+ DraftKings points twice in those 4 games. He had his best game of the series on Tuesday in Game 5, posting 38.75 DraftKings points on 12 points, 15 boards, and 4 assists in a series-high 31 minutes.
He’s hoping to set up a rematch with his former team, the Knicks, in the NBA Finals, and Hartenstein is a key fantasy option in Game 6 since he comes at such a reasonable salary and has a good chance to return outstanding value.
Without Mitchell and likely Williams, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Jared McCain will have to continue to carry more responsibility. Caruso has the highest salary of the 3 and is coming off a huge Game 5, when he made the difference with 22 points, 6 assists, 3 steals, and 40.5 DraftKings points.
Caruso was completely scoreless in Game 4, though, and only had 8.0 DraftKings points. He has a wide range of volatile outcomes, but there’s no arguing his upside after his Game 5 showing. He typically gets the opportunities needed for him to return value; it’s just a matter of whether he converts them into fantasy points, as he did in Game 5. Before Game 4’s letdown, he had exceeded salary-based expectations in 6 straight games, so even if he doesn’t reach that huge level of production, his multi-faceted skill set makes him a solid mid-range value piece to consider.
Wallace has exceeded salary-based expectations with a Plus/Minus of at least 10 DraftKings points in 3 of the last 4 games in this series. He had a series-high 33 DraftKings points in Game 2 and posted 28 DraftKings points in Game 5’s big win. Since he hasn’t been priced up as aggressively as Caruso, he is easier to work into lineup builds at $5,200.
McCain is actually the cheapest of those 3 fill-in guards at only $5,000. He doesn’t have the same non-scoring production as Caruso and Wallace, but he did score 24 points in Game 3 and 20 points in Game 5, producing 31 and 24.25 DraftKings points, respectively. He is another great value option at his price point as long as he‘s helping to fill a bigger role.
Turning to the Spurs side of the mid-range options, Devin Vassell is the option with the highest salary after the 3 studs highlighted in the first section of this post. Vassell shot just 2-for-11 in Game 5 and finished with 6 points and 23.5 DraftKings points. It was the 1st time in the series that he fell short of salary-based expectations, and the Spurs will need him to bounce back in Game 6. With Castle and Fox producing, though, Vassell is high risk since his usage could take a hit.
Julian Champagnie stepped up to fill the scoring slack with Vassell struggling in Game 5, scoring a series-high 22 points and producing 40.5 DraftKings points. He fits in well next to Castle and Fox and has the potential to be a key value option if he can duplicate his Game 5 efficiency. He is a streaky outside shooter, but his non-scoring numbers have been consistent enough to give him a high floor.
Spurs rookie Dylan Harper and Sixth Man of the Year Keldon Johnson have been getting decent minutes but limited usage this series. Harper has fallen under salary-based expectations in the last 4 games after going off with a monster game in Game 1 and earning 62.26 DraftKings points while helping fill in for Fox. He’s dealing with an adductor injury that he picked up in Game 2, and he has played a limited role in the last few games. He still has a huge ceiling, but his last few games make him a high-risk, high-reward option in Game 6.
Johnson stepped up with 15 points in the Spurs’ Game 5 loss, finishing with 22.5 DraftKings points, his best total of the series. Johnson is a little cheaper than Harper and in a more stable role, but Harper has the higher ceiling after his huge start to the series.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Jaylin Williams ($3,200): When the Thunder win big, Williams typically gets more minutes and excels in mop-up duty. He had 32.25 DraftKings points in Game 3 in San Antonio to show his upside, but he only had 8.25 and 10.0 DraftKings points in the two games since then. Williams has the highest ceiling projections of the players under $4,000, but he doesn’t bring the highest Projected Plus/Minus.
- Luguetz Dort ($2,400): Dort has the highest Plus/Minus projections of the plays under $4,000 in both sets of projections, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games. Dort hasn’t had a huge offensive game yet in the series, but his defensive contributions keep him on the floor enough to accumulate counting stats and return value.
- Luke Kornet ($2,000): Kornet has the best Plus/Minus projection of the Spurs’ punt plays. He had 18.75 DraftKings points in Game 4 but has been held under 10 DraftKings points in the other four games in the series. He gets enough time to be a flier play, but if Wemby is taking over, he could get fewer minutes.
- Carter Bryant ($1,400): Bryant had seven points in Game 5, exceeding salary-based expectations for the second straight game. He has gotten a few minutes in every matchup in this series and usually finds a way to chip in a few stats.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,200): Joe didn’t score and only played two minutes in Game 5, but in Game 4, he had 11 points and 26.75 DraftKings points off the bench. Most of his playing time this postseason has been after the game is decided and gets lopsided in either direction, but he has shown a decent ceiling at this bargain salary when given opportunities.
Pictured: Stephon Castle
Photo Credit: Imagn
