The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Ranger Suarez (L) $8,800 Boston Red Sox (-150) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Ranger Suarez was slated to return from the IL yesterday against Baltimore, but his start got pushed back until today. Here’s what I had to say about him yesterday:
“Suarez has been absent for most of Boston’s 14-game winning streak – he’s pitched just 1 game in that span, on July 5. That’s because he was injured in that contest, exiting the game early with a groin strain and going on the 15-day IL. He’s back today and will be looking to get back to his 3.15 ERA/25.8% strikeout-rate form.
There’s always a slight risk in rostering players – especially pitchers – coming back from an injury. I’m not especially worried here, though, given both the brevity and location (crucially, not elbow/shoulder) of the injury. Vegas isn’t especially worried either, with the Orioles’ run total just 0.2 runs away from being the lowest on the slate.
Baltimore is a roughly league-average team against lefties, but they strike out at one of the highest rates. Given Suárez’s low ERA and moderate strikeout rate, that’s probably a good setup. We aren’t really worried about him giving up too many runs, and Baltimore’s strikeout rate provides some additional upside.”
All of that applies again today (though he’s now 0.4 runs higher than the lowest opponent team total on the board), with the caveat of slightly higher risk due to whatever delayed his start. However, that’s made up for with a $500 cheaper price tag. He again leads the slate in median and ceiling projection and is among the top Pts/Sal options.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Eric Lauer (L) $6,000 Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) at Philadelphia Phillies
There are 3 pitchers with very similar median and Pts/Sal projections, all separated by just $600 in salary. They are Eric Lauer, Colin Rea ($6,400), and Cal Quantrill ($5,800). There’s a case to be made for any of them, all of whom will be fairly low owned thanks to the salary dynamics of the slate. Without an expensive stud pitcher at the top, the need to save on the second pitcher is much lower.
With that said, Lauer is my favorite of the group thanks to the matchup. The Phillies are a bottom-5 team against left-handed pitching this season, while the other 2 are facing opponents who are roughly league average. While Philadelphia is a much better team in theory, their stars haven’t performed up to expectations this season, and it’s past time to believe the numbers over the names. Plus, even at their best, this is a team constructed to be much better against righties than lefties, with their 2 top hitters both batting left-handed.
Lauer’s numbers aren’t anything special, with a 4.81 ERA and sub-15% strikeout rate. He’s cheap, though, and with a great offense behind him that boosts his chances of a 4-point win bonus. Since we’re looking at pitchers in the 10-12 point range, an extra 4 points goes a long way. More importantly for tournaments, any lineup that leaves this much salary for hitters will be naturally contrarian and hopefully make it easy to get upside from those bats.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Max Fried (L) $8,800 New York Yankees (-170) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
I’m surprised at how low our projection is on Max Fried, since the Pirates have the lowest team total on the board at 3.8 and his Yankees are heavy favorites. Much of it has to do with Fried returning from an injury for his first big-league start since May, but when healthy this season, he had a 3.21 ERA through 10 starts. The leash might be a bit short tonight, but with no pitcher projected for over 15 points, we don’t exactly need a complete game to take down a tournament.
Colin Rea ($6,400) Chicago Cubs (-117) vs. Detroit Tigers
I mentioned Rea above, and it’s hard to get excited about a pitcher with a 4.74 ERA and 17.2% strikeout rate against even an average offense like the Tigers. The confounding variable today is the weather, with the wind at Wrigley turning in today after a few days of blowing out. The current forecast calls for an 8% reduction in runs and a 20% reduction in homers, which makes both Rea and his opponent Keider Montero ($8,200) interesting. If you really want to lean into the weather angle, stacking both is a way to get plenty of correlated upside for a cheap price.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers
One of the nice things about the dearth of quality pitching options today is that we have the rare opportunity to stack the Dodgers without having to jam in a bunch of minimum-priced punts at the other offensive spots.
The best overall lineup in baseball, the Dodgers are tied for the highest team total on the slate and are the only road team implied for at least 5 runs. Five honestly seems a bit pessimistic, given that the once-great Aaron Nola ($7,400) has a 5.68 ERA this season and finished last year north of 6.00.
The real selling point for the Dodgers is the context of the slate, though. There’s never really a bad time to roster the Dodgers, but it’s near-impossible without completely punting at pitcher most days. That’s not the case tonight, so I’ll take my opportunity to pack a lineup full of the superstar hitters from LA.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Coby Mayo 3B ($3,400) Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (Ranger Suarez)
It looks like Ranger Suarez is likely to lead the slate in ownership among pitchers, which makes rostering bats against him an interesting proposition. Suárez coming back from injury leaves a lot of question marks about his readiness, plus Boston has the best hitting weather on the slate tonight, with a double-digit percentage boost to both scoring and home runs.
The Orioles are a roughly league-average team against lefties, but PlateIQ shows us it’s not exactly evenly distributed:
Depending on your perspective, that’s 3 or 4 hitters worth playing against the southpaw, but Mayo has by far the strongest overall numbers with his .307 ISO. At his price tag, he’s a solid one-off, and I’ll be stacking Baltimore in lineups without Suárez.
Jake Burger 1B ($3,300) Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox (Adam Kay)
Texas is quietly a top-3 team in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season. They draw a pretty hittable lefty tonight in Anthony Kay ($6,800), who comes into the game with a 4.24 ERA but underlying numbers all right around 5.
My main interest is in the Rangers in general as a stack, but on a per-dollar basis, Burger is my favorite one-off. His price is low since he’s about a league-average hitter overall. However, that’s split between a 126 wRC+ against lefties and a 94 mark against righties. We’re paying for a below-average hitter, but he’s performed like a $4,500 bat when facing southpaws, making him an excellent play.
Trent Grisham OF ($4,100) New York Yankees vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Bubba Chandler)
Grisham was one of my favorite plays yesterday before the game got rained out. If anything, that probably benefits bats, since starting pitchers have their rhythm disrupted with a delay.
He’s set to lead off a Yankees lineup implied for 4.9 runs against Chandler ($6,600) and the Pirates. Grisham isn’t the most exciting option as a slightly above-average hitter this season, but with New York’s team total and his lineup spot, he’s an obvious value. Plus, Chandler has allowed a wOBA of .349 against lefties, nearly 60 points higher than his mark against right-handed hitters.
Grisham is $100 more expensive than he was yesterday, but that’s fine considering both the salary structure of today’s slate and the Yankees’ solid team total. He’s the highest-rated non-Dodger in our Tournament Models.
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Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
Photo Credit: Imagn
