Friday features Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder bounced back with a win in Game 2, bringing the series back to one game apiece as things shift to San Antonio. The Spurs are listed as 1.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 218.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
After a truly remarkable performance in Game 1, Victor Wembanyama was a bit more mortal in Game 2. The Thunder were extremely physical with him, and they opted to use a traditional big man against him more often in coverage. As a result, he finished with just 21 points and a 23.9% usage rate after posting 41 points and a 30.9% mark in Game 1.
Still, a quiet game from Wembanyama would be a career night for most players. He added 17 rebounds, six assists, and four blocks to his ledger, bringing his tally to 62.25 DraftKings points. It was his sixth game with 60+ fantasy points during the playoffs, and he’s only played more than 27.4 minutes in eight contests.
Wembanyama has logged at least 37 minutes in both games vs. the Thunder, which gives him immense upside for fantasy purposes. He’s arguably the most dominant per-minute producer in the league, and he’s now reached a point where he’s logging a ton of minutes on a nightly basis. He should see a comparable workload in Game 3, and as long as that happens, no one on this slate can match him for fantasy purposes. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he’s also first in projected Plus/Minus.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has become a bit of a polarizing player. There is no doubt that he is supremely talented, but some of his foul-baiting antics rub people the wrong way. Still, he just took home his second consecutive MVP award and averaged more than 30 points per game on 55% shooting, so whatever he is doing is working.
SGA bounced back from a subpar shooting performance in Game 1 with a much more efficient effort in Game 2. He racked up 30 points on 50% shooting, and he also handed out nine assists. He ultimately finished with just 4.25 fewer DraftKings points than he had in Game 1, despite playing nearly 13 fewer minutes.
The Spurs are one of the toughest matchups in basketball, with Wembanyama patrolling the paint and altering shots like no one in the league. However, Gilgeous-Alexander has proven more equipped than most to combat them. He averaged 29.5 points on 50.6% shooting vs. the Spurs during the regular season, so his subpar showing in Game 1 feels like an outlier.
Wembanyama ultimately gets the edge between the two superstars in our Models, and he was the optimal Captain choice in Game 2. That said, using both players together is probably the correct strategy. Both players have appeared in the optimal lineup for each of the first two matchups, and they’re the clear top producers in this series.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Monitoring the injury report will be essential heading into lineup lock. De’Aaron Fox has missed the first two games with a high-ankle sprain, and he’s questionable once again for Game 3. Jalen Williams and Dylan Harper both exited Game 2 early, and they’re also listed as questionable. Whether any of those players can suit up is going to have a massive impact on the rest of the rotation.
Stephon Castle has been thrust into a much larger role with Fox out for the past two games. He’s served as the team’s de facto point guard, and he’s handed out 19 assists in those contests. Unfortunately, he’s also racked up 20 turnovers, which is tough to survive against an elite OKC squad.
Castle also posted a 30.9% usage rate in Game 2, and he’s seen a +1.56% usage bump with both players off the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in that split, so he’d be a tough fade if Fox and Harper are unavailable. Castle has already been remarkably consistent during the playoffs, posting a positive Plus/Minus in eight straight games, and he would have to do even more than usual if the team is shorthanded.
One of the adjustments that OKC made after the Game 1 loss was playing Chet Holmgren a bit less. That feels counterintuitive. Holmgren is one of their best players, and his size should, in theory, make him a solid counter to Wembanyama. That said, he doesn’t have the strength to combat Wemby on the interior, leading to just 27.0 minutes in Game 2.
If Holmgren is going to continue to play sporadically, he’s tough to trust at his current price tag. Of course, that could also just be a one-game outlier. We currently have Holmgren projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him some buy-low appeal. He trails only Wembanyama, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Castle in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and he should check in with the lowest ownership of the quartet. There’s definitely some risk here, but he could also pay off for tournaments.
The Thunder have survived without Williams for most of the year, so they have plenty of experience if he does sit out. However, he was their second-best player during last year’s title run, so his presence would definitely be welcome. He posted a team-high 35.7% usage rate in Game 1 of this series, despite missing the previous few weeks with an injury.
If Williams does return to the lineup for Game 3, expect him to serve as OKC’s No. 2 option. It’s possible that he’s a bit limited, but they’re ultimately going to need him to get past an elite San Antonio squad.
Fox is the Spurs’ top veteran presence, and his return would be a huge development in this series. The Spurs have turned the ball over at a massive clip in this series, so Fox would help in that department at a bare minimum.
Fox was also excellent to close out the series vs. the Timberwolves, posting a positive Plus/Minus in his final four games. That includes 44.5 DraftKings points in just 24.4 minutes in the closeout victory. We have Fox projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and he would definitely have a chance to return value if he can get to that mark.
Harper has a wide range of outcomes on this slate. If Fox is out once again, Harper would have plenty of appeal as a member of the starting lineup. He was phenomenal in Game 1 of this series, racking up 62.25 DraftKings points in just under 47 minutes.
However, Harper has gotten significantly more expensive since the start of the playoffs, so he would be tough to roster if Fox returns. He’s been limited to less than 30 minutes per game when the team has been at full strength, and he could be even more limited than usual due to his injury. He’s ultimately a high-risk, high-reward type of option if Fox suits up, and he owns a negative Plus/Minus projection in our NBA Models.
Ajay Mitchell was a breakout star for the Thunder this season, and he had some huge performances in the second round of the playoffs. Those games came with Williams out of the lineup, so it’s possible that he takes on a larger role moving forward. However, he has basically been MIA in this series so far. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in the first two games vs. San Antonio, and he had just 21.5 DraftKings points in 28.2 minutes in Game 2.
Even without Williams for most of the game on Wednesday, the Thunder still didn’t need to lean on Mitchell too heavily. They have the deepest roster in basketball, particularly in the backcourt. Mitchell is another player who has some upside, but he stands out as overpriced for his role in the series so far.
Conversely, Alex Caruso looks like a massive value. The Spurs dared him to shoot the ball in Game 1, and he responded by knocking down eight 3-pointers. He showed up as the optimal DraftKings Captain in that contest, and he finished with 46.0 DraftKings points at just $4,000.
Caruso wasn’t quite that good in Game 2. The Spurs were less willing to let him shoot the ball, so he attempted just four 3-pointers. Still, Caruso managed to make a huge impact. He had 17 points, five assists, and three rebounds, resulting in 31.75 DraftKings points in 25.5 minutes. Regardless of Williams’ status, he should continue to play a bit more than he did in the regular season, and he’s proven he can make a big impact in limited playing time.
Devin Vassell and Julian Champagne round out the Spurs’ starting lineup. They’re similar players, with both providing perimeter shooting for the squad.
Vassell is a bit more offensively gifted, giving him a superior usage rate throughout the playoffs. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in both contests, while Champagnie is coming off a subpar showing in Game 2. Vassell has the clear edge in the projections between these two, especially given that there’s just a $400 difference in salary. Vassell would also see a bigger bump if Fox and/or Harper are ruled out, making him the stronger choice.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Cason Wallace ($4,600): Wallace was brilliant in Game 2, finishing with 33.0 DraftKings points in just 24.8 minutes. He was 4-6 from 3-point range, and when he’s making his jump shots, the Thunder go from scary to virtually unbeatable. Still, the fact that he played less than 25 minutes isn’t great for his fantasy prospects moving forward.
- Isaiah Hartenstein ($4,400): After pulling the plug on Hartenstein extremely quickly in Game 1, the Thunder unleashed him in Game 2. His mission was to make life difficult for Wembanyama, and he certainly accomplished that. He ultimately racked up 30.75 DraftKings points in 27.4 minutes, and if he can avoid foul trouble on Friday, he’s a great bet to return value. He leads this price range in projected Plus/Minus.
- Keldon Johnson ($4,200): Johnson was the Sixth Man of the Year this season, but he hasn’t had the same impact during the playoffs. However, that could change if Fox and Harper are out for Game 3. Johnson got up to 26.2 minutes in Game 2, which was his biggest workload of the postseason.
- Jared McCain ($3,600): McCain was basically stolen from the 76ers earlier this season, and the injury to Williams showed exactly why you make that type of move. He is a tremendous insurance policy for OKC, and he proved his worth with 29.5 DraftKings points in just under 26 minutes on Wednesday. He would be a fantastic choice if Williams is out in Game 3.
- Lu Dort ($2,800): Dort was effective in Game 2, but he saw just 16.1 minutes. That doesn’t bode well for his future outlook. Dort is not typically a strong per-minute producer, so he’s going to need to play much more than that to return value on a consistent basis.
- Luke Kornet ($2,600): Kornet has seen around 10 minutes in each of the first two games in this series, which is not enough to make a real impact. It’s hard to imagine that changing. If anything, Kornet will likely play less as the series progresses, so it’s hard to get too excited about him in Game 3.
- Carter Bryant ($2,400): Bryant has seen a boost in responsibilities as the season has progressed, but that wasn’t the case in Game 2. He was down to just 10.1 minutes, and he finished with just 4.25 DraftKings points. He’s currently projected for just eight minutes in our NBA Models, which isn’t enough for him to warrant consideration.
- Jaylin Williams ($1,800): Williams has played close to double-digit minutes in both games in this series, and he’s a fantastic per-minute producer. He had 13.25 DraftKings points in 9.8 minutes in Game 2, which gives him a strong enough ceiling to target in stars-and-scrubs builds.
- Harrison Barnes ($1,200): Barnes is someone who could see a boost for San Antonio if Fox and Harper are out once again. He was up to 12.2 minutes in Game 2 after being limited to less than six minutes in Game 1. Barnes had 8.25 DraftKings points in that contest, and he’s the lone guy on the Spurs with legit playoff experience.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,000): Joe saw nearly 10 minutes in Game 2, but it didn’t result in any fantasy production. Still, he’s a legit threat from the perimeter, and he has the potential to contribute if he gets hot from 3-point range.
- Jordan McLaughlin ($1,000): If both of San Antonio’s PGs are out, McLaughlin could be forced into a greater role by default. He saw seven minutes after Harper exited in Game 2, and he had a productive 9.25 DraftKings points in that stretch. He would be an extremely appealing punt play in that scenario at the absolute minimum.
Pictured: Victor Wembanyama
Photo Credit: Imagn
