Saturday features Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals between the Spurs and Thunder. The winner will advance to take on the Knicks in the NBA Finals, while the loser will be forced to go home. It’s been an excellent series so far, with both teams looking dominant at times. The Thunder are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 212.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Victor Wembanyama is the future of the NBA, and he very well might be the present as well. He has put the Spurs on his back in their past two victories. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 38.9% in both contests, so the offense has flowed through him on both occasions.
The prospect of getting Wembanyama in a do-or-die Game 7 is extremely tantalizing. He was one of the best per-minute producers during the regular season, but he was limited in terms of his court time. That shouldn’t be an issue on Saturday. He’s currently projected for 40 minutes in our NBA Models, and he can do some serious damage with that much playing time.
Wembanyama was only needed for 28.4 minutes in Game 6, and he still finished with 55.5 DraftKings points. If he can maintain that level of per-minute efficiency over a larger workload, the sky is the limit.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning back-to-back MVP, and he’s coming off a historic regular season. He averaged 31.1 points per game on better than 55% shooting from the field, which is basically unprecedented for a guard. He has more than his fair share of haters, but he’s doing things we haven’t really seen as a scorer since Michael Jordan.
However, SGA has had his hands full with the Spurs’ elite defense in this series. They’ve been aggressive in double-teaming him, forcing the Thunder’s other options to beat them. When Gilgeous-Alexander has tried to force the issue, he hasn’t been nearly as efficient as usual. He’s averaging just 24.3 points per game in this series, and he’s shooting just 37.4% from the field.
The good news is that he’s still found a way to produce for fantasy purposes. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of six games in this matchup, with the blowouts in Games 4 and 6 the lone exceptions. He bounced back from a subpar showing in Game 4 with 52.0 DraftKings points in Game 5, so perhaps he has something similar in store for Game 7.
Gilgeous-Alexander is going to have to carry the load for the Thunder to advance to their second straight Finals. The team has already ruled out Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, leaving SGA without arguably his two best offensive running mates. Gilgeous-Alexander saw a slight usage bump with both players off the floor during the regular season, and he averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute in that split.
Ultimately, using both Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander has been the correct decision for most of this series. They’ve each been in the optimal lineup in five of six games, and they’ve both been present for four of them. One has been the optimal Captain in 50% of the series (twice for Wembanyama, once for Gilgeous-Alexander), so getting the salary cap space for both should be the preferred strategy for most of your builds.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
While the Thunder are dealing with injuries, the Spurs are essentially back at full strength. De’Aaron Fox has returned after missing the first two games of the series, while Dylan Harper has played through an adductor injury he suffered in Game 2. Neither player appears to be at 100%, but they’re not even listed on the injury report for Game 7.
Stephon Castle has emerged as the Spurs’ No. 2 option during the playoffs. He has been remarkably consistent, especially considering he’s just 21 years old. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 11 of his last 12 outings, with the lone exception being the blowout win over the Thunder in Game 4. He played fewer than 30 minutes in that contest, so he’s been nearly perfect when he’s seen a full workload.
Castle has lost some offensive responsibilities since Fox returned to the lineup, but he’s impacting the game in every category across the board. He’s averaged 18.3 points, 7.8 assists, and 4.8 rebounds per game in this series, and he’s also contributed on the defensive end. Castle led the starting lineup in minutes in Game 6, and he should be looking at a big workload on Saturday.
Fox has yet to really get going since returning from injury. He’s averaged just 29.9 minutes in his four games, and he’s responded with just 10.3 points per game. He’s shot a paltry 33.3% from the field and 13.3% from 3-point range, and he’ll likely need to be better if the Spurs are going to pull off the upset. Fox is the only regular with legit playoff experience on this roster.
We currently have Fox projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, which would represent a nice increase from the last few games. He’s also a candidate for some positive regression as a scorer. There are reasons to believe in a bounce-back performance, and he stands out as a solid value at $7,800.
Chet Holmgren has been one of the biggest disappointments for the Thunder in this series. His length has been completely negated by Wembanyama, and he’s struggled to make an impact against him. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of six games, and he struggled against the Spurs during the regular season as well.
The good news is that Holmgren is at least trending up. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back outings despite playing less than 30 minutes in both. He could see a few additional minutes on Saturday, so he’s another player with some buy-low appeal. His salary is significantly down at $7,600 after peaking above $10,000 vs. the Lakers.
There’s a pretty steep drop after Holmgren. Devin Vassell is next up on the pricing spectrum, and he doesn’t have the same type of upside for fantasy purposes. He did go off for 41.25 DraftKings points in Game 3, but that stands out as a clear outlier.
However, Vassell has been a consistent part of the Spurs’ rotation throughout the playoffs. He provides much needed perimeter shooting, and he has consistently sat in the 30 DraftKings points range. Unfortunately, his salary has jumped up to $6,800, and he doesn’t have as much appeal at that figure. He owns the third-worst projected Plus/Minus in the mid-range tier.
Alex Caruso has been a savior for the Thunder at times in this series. He shot just 29.3% from 3-point range during the regular season, but he’s at 55.9% in this series. He’s been the team’s second-leading scorer against San Antonio despite ranking sixth on the team in minutes per game.
That makes Caruso a risky proposition at $6,400. He’s relied on efficiency way more than volume, and he’s a candidate for some negative regression. We’ve already started to see it, with Caruso scoring fewer than 10 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. Of course, he also provides some solid upside, going for 40+ DraftKings points in two games in this series. He’s a high-risk, high-reward type of player, though his minuscule ownership projection does increase his appeal.
Isaiah Hartenstein looked unplayable in Game 1 of this series, but he has bounced back since then. He has used his physicality to bother Wembanyama defensively, and he’s chipped in on offense as well. He’s responded with a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, including two double-doubles.
The big question mark with Hartenstein is his minutes. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he should be able to pay off his current salary. That said, that’s easier said than done vs. Wembanyama.
Julian Champagnie fills a similar role to Vassell for the Spurs. While he’s not quite as gifted offensively, he has been excellent in the last two games. He erupted for 40.5 DraftKings points in Game 5, and he had 27.0 DraftKings points in just 25.1 minutes in Game 6.
Champagnie is never going to command a huge usage rate for the Spurs, but he can do a little bit of everything. If he gets hot from the perimeter, he has a chance to be a factor once again.
Jared McCain has moved into the starting lineup for the last two games, and he is never shy about looking for his offense. The Thunder need a reliable No. 2 option with how the Spurs have defended SGA, and McCain has tried his best to be it. He’s launched 30 total shots across his two starts, and he had 21 field goal attempts off the bench in Game 3.
With McCain locked into a starter’s workload, he looks like a tremendous value at just $5,200. He had 24.25 DraftKings points in Game 5, and he followed that up with 28.5 DraftKings points across 27.0 minutes in Game 6. He doesn’t bring much else to the table besides scoring, but he doesn’t really need to at his current salary.
Dylan Harper rounds out this price range. He’s looked hampered by injury since Game 2, and he’s seen a reduction in playing time since Fox returned to the lineup. However, he did break out of his funk with a huge showing in Game 6. He racked up 32.0 DraftKings points in just 22.1 minutes, and it’s possible he takes on a bigger role in an elimination contest. There is no denying Harper’s talent, so it will come down to how much he plays on Saturday.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Cason Wallace ($4,800): Even without Williams and Mitchell, the Thunder still have excellent depth on the wing. However, Wallace might be their best combination of offense and defense. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of six games in this series, and he’s averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute over his past two outings. He’s projected for 30 minutes for Game 7, making him a strong option at $4,800.
- Keldon Johnson ($3,800): Johnson took home the Sixth Man of the Year this season, but he has struggled to find a role in this series. That said, he has been better over his past two outings. He had a series-best 22.5 DraftKings points in Game 5, and he had 14.75 DraftKings points in 17.6 minutes in Game 6. He probably won’t see more than 20 minutes in this contest, but he has the potential to be productive when on the floor.
- Jaylin Williams ($3,000): Williams is the Thunder’s No. 3 option at center, but he has given the team some solid minutes in this series. He was one of the heroes in their Game 3 win, providing 32.25 DraftKings points, and he’s had a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last five outings. He’s projected for 20 minutes in our NBA Models, and he could certainly provide value with that much playing time.
- Lu Dort ($2,400): Dort looks absolutely lost on offense at the moment. He’s knocked down just 18.2% of his 3-point attempts in this series, and most of them have been wide open. That has seriously capped his upside, and his playing time has suffered. He should still see some minutes in Game 7, but if his shot isn’t falling, he could have a quick hook.
- Luke Kornet ($1,800): The Spurs have been killed in the minutes where Wembanyama has been off the floor in this series, and there shouldn’t be a ton of those on Saturday. That’s not a positive development for Kornet.
- Kenrich Williams ($1,600): The Thunder are so deep that Williams is occasionally not even in the rotation. He’d play for most of the other 29 teams in the league, and when OKC has dusted him off, he’s typically been productive. He’s had a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, including 23.25 DraftKings points in Game 4. Williams is only projected for 12 minutes on this slate, but that should be enough for him to pay off his meager price tag.
- Isaiah Joe ($1,200): Joe has played primarily in garbage time in this series, but he’s arguably the team’s best perimeter shooter. He could be a “break glass in case of emergency” option if none of the team’s other wings can space the floor.
- Aaron Wiggins ($1,000): Wiggins has been basically a non-factor for OKC in this series, but he’s another potential desperation option on the wing.
- Carter Bryant ($1,000): Bryant is a part of the Spurs’ extremely bright future, but he’s not quite ready yet. That said, he has the most playing time upside among the min-priced group, making him the strongest option of the bunch.
- Harrison Barnes ($1,000): With the inexperienced Spurs playing in a Game 7, it’s possible that the team leans on their biggest veteran. It’s unlikely, but it’s at least a possibility.
Pictured: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Photo Credit: Imagn
