Tuesday’s NBA DFS landscape features three games starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
After splitting both games at home and on the road, the Grizzlies and Timberwolves now have a three-game series ahead of them. Ja Morant is averaging 20.5 points, 10.8 assists, 7.8 rebounds, and 50.7 DraftKings points per game. He struggled in the two games on the road shooting just 29% from the field. Morant has three double-doubles in a row and one triple-double proving his upside.
Whenever the Grizzlies and Timberwolves are on the slate, expect this game to draw the most attention. This game features the highest total on the slate at 232.5 points, which is 15 points higher than any other game. The Grizzlies are implied to score 119.25 points as they are six-point home favorites. Morant is the same price on both sites, but he looks much better on FanDuel tonight.
The Miami Heat have a chance to close out the Atlanta Hawks in a gentlemen’s sweep tonight as they are seven-point home favorites. They will have to do so without Kyle Lowry, who is out again for a hamstring injury. Gabe Vincent started the last game, and he played a season-high 27 minutes while recording 11 points. Vincent has had over 20 DraftKings points in three of his last four games.
Vincent has seen a salary increase, but it doesn’t seem quite high enough, especially if this game stays close. In the Heat’s three victories, they have won by an average of 19.3 points per game. There are a few salary savers on this small slate, but Vincent certainly needs to be considered as one of the best options. He is projected for 29 minutes in our Player Models and is a great value.
With Devin Booker still out, the Phoenix Suns are playing a pivotal game five at home tonight. This series with the New Orleans Pelicans is tied 2-2 with the Suns as 6.5-point favorites. Chris Paul is coming off his worst playoff game arguably in his career, as he only posted four points while shooting 2-of-8 from the field. However, that seems to be an outlier based on how he has played lately.
Using our On/Off Tool, Paul has a +3% usage rate and +2.5 DraftKings Plus/Minus without Booker in the lineup this season. Paul has shown his upside with two games of 58 or more DraftKings points in this series. He will need to have an electric performance to make sure the Suns pull this game out. He has massive double-double upside as he led the league with 10.8 assists per game.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
CJ McCollum has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in three of the four playoff games thus far despite shooting only 40.2% from the field. He is averaging 24 points, but he is doing a great job with his peripherals averaging 7.3 rebounds and six assists per game. McCollum has been fantastic for the Pelicans averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage.
The Pelicans have the talent and are certainly not intimidated by the Suns, especially their young talent. McCollum still leads the team from a veteran perspective, and if the Pelicans compete, it will be from a big game from McCollum once again. The Suns present a great defensive challenge as they were third in the league in defensive rating. However, McCollum can get as hot as anyone.
Another Miami Heat value starter option is Max Strus. He has had a positive Plus/Minus in each of the Heat playoff games thus far, as he is averaging 13.8 points per game. Strus has attempted an average of 12 3-point attempts per game in his last two games, as 78.8% of his field-goal attempts come from behind the arc. Strus is not shy to get up as many shots as he can on this Heat team.
This may come as a surprise, but Strus is second on the Heat in points per game in the playoffs this season. The Heat have attempted the second-most 3-pointers during this first round of the playoffs, and Strus is a big reason why. He is shooting 34% from behind the arc but is making 3.3 made 3-pointers per game. Prioritize Strus on DraftKings, where he can best utilize the 3-point bonus.
It was only a matter of time until Desmond Bane caught fire, and he has shot the lights out lately. In the past two games, Bane is averaging 30 points per game while making seven and eight 3-pointers. He has had back-to-back games scoring over 45 DraftKings points as he has found a certain sweet spot against this Timberwolves defense. It helps this series has the highest pace thus far.
With Patrick Beverley more often than not on Ja Morant, this has to be one of the better matchups for Bane on the entire slate. He is leading the Grizzlies averaging 23.3 points per game in this series as he has taken a major leap from last year, averaging nine more points and three 3-pointers per game. He is tough to get away from on both sites, given the upside he has had recently.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
After a disappointing Game 1 in this series, Brandon Ingram is cooking now and showcasing his talent in his first playoff series. Over the last three games, Ingram is averaging 33.7 points per game while shooting 55.6% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. He leads the Pelicans in scoring in the postseason as he is fifth in the entire league. Ingram has been fantastic in this series.
Despite the Pelicans having the lowest implied total on the slate and being covered by Mikal Bridges, Ingram is still putting on a show. He nearly had a triple-double in a game two victory as he almost had 70 DraftKings points! Being priced around Chris Paul and Karl-Anthony Towns, Ingram may carry less ownership than he should. He is a great option to get different on this short slate.
Dillon Brooks has been a little disappointing but still has the highest projected Plus/Minus of any forward on this slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Brooks is a very scoring-dependent player and has put up 24 in two of the four games in this series. He is second to Morant in team usage rate with 25.1%, as he is shooting as much as he wants on the floor, which is great for both sites.
Brooks is quite a bit cheaper on FanDuel, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating. There are only two games in which Brooks did not shoot double-digit field goal attempts all season. In one game, he only played seven minutes and left due to an injury, and the other was when the Grizzlies won 152-79 against the Thunder. Brooks is going to force shots each and every game, making him a great option.
Welcome to the first rollercoaster ride on the Minnesota Timberwolves with Anthony Edwards. He opened up the series with a 36-point performance where he had 54.5 DraftKings points. In the last game, he had 24 points and 45.5 DraftKings points. He is one of the Timberwolves’ frontrunners who seems to dominate when they win. This will be a tough spot for him, given the spread.
Edwards will go missing from time to time, which is why he will always remain a risky target. However, the upside he has is one of the biggest on this slate. It would not be surprising if Edwards put up the most fantasy points tonight, but it would also not surprise me if he scored under 30 fantasy points. This game will draw a lot of attention, and he needs to be considered based on his upside.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
The best player on DraftKings has to be Jimmy Butler. He has a 92% Bargain Rating as he is much more appealing on DraftKings than FanDuel, where he is the highest-priced player on the slate. Over the last three games, Butler is averaging 33.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.7 steals, and 60.9 DraftKings points per game. He is absolutely filling up the stat sheet like he does best.
Butler also benefits with Lowry being out tonight. In 17 games this season, including the playoffs, Butler is averaging 20.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game. During those 17 games, he has four triple-doubles which is certainly on the table tonight in this close-out game. Prioritize Butler on DraftKings, where he is $1,600 cheaper than he is on FanDuel. Great pay-up option tonight.
There are two value power forwards on the Suns that make sense for this position. That would be Cameron Johnson and Jae Crowder. They are priced very similar on both sites, however, Johnson is cheaper on DraftKings while Crowder is cheaper on FanDuel. Crowder is projected for two more minutes, but they both have a similar projection and benefit without Booker in the lineup.
Johnson is not only cheaper, but he makes more sense on DraftKings given the 3-point bonus and his lack of steals and blocks this series. He is shooting 37.4% from behind the arc and is starting in place of Booker. Crowder has had a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in 10 of his last 12 games. He is shooting 8.3% from downtown but is averaging 2.1 combined steals and blocks per game.
Similar to the Suns’ options, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke are priced similarly on both sites and have around the same projection. One of these games, Jackson Jr. is going to stay out of foul trouble and absolutely dominate his value. He is averaging five fouls per game in this series and only playing 23.8 minutes. The upside is there, but Jackson Jr. has to stay out of foul trouble.
Clarke will continue to come off the bench but has been extremely productive in this series. He is averaging 15.3 points and seven rebounds per game while shooting 73.2% from the field. Clarke has put up over 30 DraftKings points in three of the four games and has stayed out of foul trouble. Clarke may be the safer play in cash games, while Jackson Jr. still has the tournament upside.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Karl-Anthony Towns has been a roller coaster since the start of the playoffs. He is very boom or bust as he has two games with over 50 DraftKings points and two games with under 35 DraftKings points. The games he has struggled are when he gets into foul trouble. Similar to Jaren Jackson Jr., Towns is allergic to foul trouble. He led the league in fouls with 79 since the All-Star Break.
If Towns can stay out of foul trouble, he is going to crush this price tag. He is top three in both projected Plus/Minus and ceiling for both DraftKings and FanDuel. This center position is loaded, especially on DraftKings, where most are only center eligible. Towns leads the way, but he is still risky. He attempted four field goals in game three despite playing 33 minutes. Risky, but worth it.
Clint Capela came back in game four, but the Hawks got blown out, and Capela played 21 minutes. He was brutal during those minutes as he only had two points, seven rebounds and barely put up over 10 DraftKings points. He is questionable to play tonight, so monitor his status. If Capela doesn’t play for some reason, just look to play John Collins, who is also center eligible on both sites.
Don’t forget, but before Capela was injured, he put up 13 points and 17 rebounds in the first game of the play-in tournament against the Hornets. He had over 50 DraftKings points in that game, so we know the upside is there. However, the Heat led the league in the least amount of points scored in the paint this season. The matchup is difficult, but the price tag on Capela is very intriguing.
There are three very good centers that haven’t been talked about yet, who are all great plays in their own right. Deandre Ayton, Bam Adebayo, and Jonas Valanciunas all have strong ceilings and can reach value in different ways. Ayton is the most expensive option but is my favorite among the bunch as he seems to be coming into his own, especially with Booker out for the foreseeable future.
Ayton is leading the Suns in points, rebounds, and blocks during this postseason. He is averaging a double-double with 20.5 points and 10.8 rebounds per game while shooting 69.3% from the field. Ayton had 60.25 DraftKings points in game three, so we know he has that type of game in the bag.
There are many great center options tonight, so choose wisely.