NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Feb. 11): Collin Sexton is Ready to Erupt

Saturday features an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props on Monkey Knife Fight.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Trae Young has been dropping dimes like crazy recently. He’s handed out at least 10 assists in eight of his past 10 games, and he racked up a double-double with 36 points and 12 assists in his last contest. He finished with 66.25 DraftKings points in that outing despite facing a tough Suns’ defense.

Things should be significantly easier for Young Saturday against the Spurs. They’ve been a fantasy goldmine this season, ranking seventh in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, and the Hawks are implied for a mind-boggling 127.0 points. That’s not just the highest mark on Saturday; it’s quite possibly the highest mark of the entire year. Young also leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings, making him a strong stud option to build around.

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Value

Things have gone extremely well for Collin Sexton over his last two games. He moved into the starting lineup and finished with at least 31.3 minutes in both contests, and he responded with 37.75 and 43.75 DraftKings points. With Mike Conley now in Minnesota, the coast is clear for Sexton to continue to serve as the team’s starting point guard.

Sexton would lose a bit of value if Jordan Clarkson is able to return to the lineup, but he’s still way too cheap for his projected role. He’s basically a free square on DraftKings, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

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Fast Break

The Spurs are going to be an important team to monitor on Saturday. They’re on the second leg of a back-to-back, so we’re not 100% sure who will be in their lineup. Devonte’ Graham took on a monster role in his first game with the team, finishing with 42.25 DraftKings points over 36.6 minutes. He would lose some offensive responsibilities if guys like Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson, and Romeo Langford are able to suit up, but he should still see enough run to pay off his $3,100 price tag.

Jalen Brunson continues to stand out on FanDuel, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s been an outstanding source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.84 over his past 10 games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games. No one at the position is projected for more minutes in our NBA Models, so he’s one of the safest options at point guard.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Wizards are another team with a strong matchup on Saturday. They’re taking on the Pacers, who will be playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. Indiana ranks fourth in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 119.75 ranks fourth on the slate.

The team will also be without Kyle Kuzma, which opens up some additional usage for the rest of the roster. Bradley Beal should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s taken on a smaller role than usual this season, but he’s seen a team-high +3.6% usage bump with Kuzma off the court. He’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and he’s averaged 42.88 DraftKings points in two full games without Kuzma. Beal also remains affordable across the industry, so there’s plenty to like about him on Saturday’s slate.

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Value

Gabe Vincent is not the most appealing DFS option, but he should continue to see plenty of minutes with Kyle Lowry out of the lineup. He’s averaged 0.71 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he’s averaged 35.4 minutes in eight games without Lowry. He’s averaged 27.69 DraftKings points in those contests, which is enough to justify a selection at $4,500.

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Fast Break

There should be more than enough scoring for Young and Dejounte Murray to both eat vs. the Spurs. Murray has taken a bit of a backseat to his running mate in the past two games, but he’s still averaged 1.17 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s an appealing buy-low option on FanDuel, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.

Delon Wright earned a spot start for the Wizards on Wednesday, and he finished with 26.2 FanDuel points over 30.1 minutes. Monte Morris is expected to return to the lineup on Saturday, but there should still be a few extra minutes for Wright with Kuzma sidelined. He’s currently projected for just over 22 minutes in our NBA Models, and Wright has averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

FanDuel continues to disrespect Lauri Markkanen. His price tag has dipped to just $7,600 for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Knicks, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, even though he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.70 over his past 10 contests. Markkanen has had a comparable salary in 26 previous games this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.36 in those contests (per the Trends tool). The Knicks are not an ideal matchup, but Markkanen has proven that this is simply too cheap a price tag for him.

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Value

Terence Davis isn’t expected to see quite as many minutes as some of the other value options on this slate, but he makes up for it with elite efficiency. Davis has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of racking up fantasy points quickly. He played more than 20 minutes in his last outing, and he’s projected for just under 22 minutes Saturday vs. the Mavericks. His viability depends on Malik Monk being ruled out once again, but if that’s the case, he’s a viable punt play at $3,300.

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Fast Break

Keldon Johnson has some buy-low appeal if he returns to the Spurs’ lineup. He’s been their clear top fantasy option when available this season, averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. He played 36.4 minutes in his last outing, and his price has decreased to just $6,800 for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Hawks. There’s some blowout risk in that contest – the Spurs are listed as 13.5-point road underdogs – but Johnson has some upside if things stay competitive.

Deni Avdija has averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.95 over his past 10 games, and his play was a big reason why the team decided to ship Rui Hachimura to the Lakers. Avdija has increased his production to 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should be locked into a big workload with Kuzma sidelined. He finished with 38.75 DraftKings points in 36.7 minutes in his last outing, and similar production is certainly possible vs. the Pacers.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Sticking with the Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis should also benefit from the absence of Kyle Kuzma. He was excellent without Kuzma in his last contest, finishing with 36 points and 57.75 DraftKings points over 35.1 minutes. He knocked down a season-high eight 3-pointers to go along with nine boards, two assists, and two blocked shots.

Even before Kuzma went down, Porzingis had been playing excellent basketball. He has at least 50.75 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he’s increased his production to 1.39 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Only Jonathan Isaac has been more effective than Porzingis on a per-minute basis over that time frame, and he’s done it in significantly fewer minutes. Porzingis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.24 vs. the Pacers, so he should be able to keep the good times rolling.

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Value

The Hawks may have a few additional bodies available on Saturday if Saddiq Bey, Garrison Mathews, and Bruno Fernando are available to make their team debuts, but there should still be more than enough playing time for De’Andre Hunter. He’s coming off 34.7 minutes in his last outing, and he’s projected for another 35.1 minutes vs. the Spurs. Hunter isn’t the most exciting player on a per-minute basis, but his average of 0.77 DraftKings points per minute isn’t terrible, either. Ultimately, he’s a solid target in a game with massive scoring potential.

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Fast Break

Zach Collins has PF eligibility on FanDuel, which makes him significantly easier to fit into your lineups. Collins also has the potential to be a massive winner from the trade deadline. He’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute this season, and his playing time should be on the rise with Jakob Poeltl now residing in Canada. Collins racked up 46.7 FanDuel points in 35.3 minutes on Friday, and while that’s definitely on the high side of what you can expect, he stands out as one of the best values at the position.

With Jarred Vanderbilt gone, Kelly Olynyk’s playing time should be much more secure. He finished with 32.3 minutes on Friday and responded with 39.4 FanDuel points vs. the Raptors. Olynyk has always been an outstanding per-minute producer, so he’s underpriced at $4,900 if he’s going to continue to play 30+ minutes.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

What’s better than getting to play Nikola Jokic in DFS? Getting to play Jokic against the Hornets. The best player in fantasy has been absolutely unstoppable recently, averaging 1.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s cruised to an average Plus/Minus of +5.24 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, despite being one of the highest-priced options every time he takes the floor. He’s capable of dominating games in basically every area of the box score, so you’re playing with fire any time he’s not in your lineup.

The matchup vs. the Hornets makes Jokic even more dangerous than usual. They’ve been one of the fastest teams in the league with LaMelo Ball in the lineup this season, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 123.25 ranks second on the slate. The Hornets also recently traded away starting center Mason Plumlee, so they have very little chance of stopping the back-to-back MVP.

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Value

With Plumlee gone, the door is open for Mark Williams to take over as the team’s starting center. He’s been phenomenal in limited minutes this season, averaging 1.24 DraftKings points per minute, and he racked up 30.8 minutes in his first game since the Plumlee trade. Williams responded with 32.5 DraftKings points, and those kinds of performances should be expected if he’s going to play that much moving forward. There’s a chance he gets into foul trouble vs. Jokic, but $3,500 is way too cheap for Williams on this slate.

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Fast Break

Bam Adebayo is an interesting pivot off Jokic in tournaments, especially on FanDuel at $9,100. He’s been excellent recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s increased his production to 1.28 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He should continue to provide more value than usual with Lowry sidelined, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the second-most at the position.

Daniel Gafford is another potential option for the Wizards. He’s averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he could approach 30 minutes with Kuzma sidelined in an outstanding matchup.