NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Wednesday, October 21)

After an exciting three games last night, the 2026-27 NBA season presents us with a sizable 11-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET. Many stars took center stage last night, but there is still a massive talent pool to sift through for tonight’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Luka Doncic ($11,000)

Priced $1,000 more than the next closest player on this 11-game slate, Doncic has to provide a ceiling performance in tournaments to make him worth the price tag. He will get every opportunity to do so while leading the Lakers without LeBron James, who departed to Philly. In the 15 games Doncic played without James last season, he had a 35.7% usage rate while averaging 65.9 DraftKings points per game.

Even playing alongside James, Doncic is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. He averaged 33.5 points, 8.3 assists, and 7.7 rebounds per game. Doncic is projected for the highest ceiling on the slate by a comfortable margin. There is plenty of value to pay up for the best player available. Getting to Doncic against a Warriors defense that was below average last season is a great way to start lineups.

Value

Dennis Schroder ($3,700)

With Hornets’ guards Coby White and Kon Knueppel out for the season opener, Schroder is expected to start and is projected to play around 32 minutes. Priced at $3,700, Schroder has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. His cheap price tag makes it easy to pay up for the likes of Luka Doncic. The 14-year journeyman will have more than enough opportunity to pay off his salary in this incredible matchup.

Last season, the Nets ranked 25th in defensive rating and allowed their opponents to shoot a league-high 49.7% from the field and 38.1% from behind the arc. Schroder is mainly known for being a floor general in his later years but has shot 34.1% from downtown throughout his career. Schroder is drawing a slate-high 42% projected ownership, making him a must in cash-game contests and a strong tournament play.

Fast Break

Darius Garland ($7,000) – Currently projected for the second-highest ceiling and projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position, Garland is one of the lone bright spots for the Clippers tonight. Bradley Beal and Brandon Ingram are out, leaving Garland to lead this young Clippers team, who are home favorites against the Kings. Garland is one of five players on this slate who has a projected usage rate above 30%.

Damian Lillard ($6,500) – After tearing his Achilles in the first round of the 2025 playoffs, Lillard missed all of last season rehabbing and was then traded back home to the Trail Blazers. With Lillard paired with Ja Morant and Jrue Holiday, it is difficult to project what this offense will look like at the guard position this season. However, it is worth taking a chance on a fully healthy Lillard at his ridiculously low price tag of $6,500.

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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards ($8,800)

The acquisition of LaMelo Ball will let Edwards focus on what he does best: scoring the basketball. Edwards is coming off the best year of his career, averaging 28.8 points per game while shooting a blistering 48.9% from the field and 39.9% from distance. He comes into this season healthy and ready to take another step forward after dealing with injuries most of last season and even in last year’s playoffs.

This matchup against the Heat has the highest total on the slate at 242.5 points, with the Timberwolves as slight road underdogs. The Heat led the league in pace last season, while the Timberwolves are expected to play fast with Ball conducting the offense. Due to his inflated salary near $9,000, Edwards is projected for less than 5% ownership, making him a strong pay-up contrarian guard in tournaments.

Value

Ty Jerome ($6,100)

Jerome spent most of last season injured with a calf strain and then missed the final 11 games with an ankle injury. However, in his 15 games, Jerome was phenomenal, averaging a career-high 19.7 points and 5.7 assists per game while shooting 42% from downtown. The Grizzlies are a young team not expected to win many games, which means Jerome is likely going to lead them in many categories.

Beyond Timberwolves-Heat, Grizzlies-Jazz is the only game with a 240-point total. Both teams ranked in the top 10 in pace last season, and this is projected to be a high-paced game environment tonight. Jerome feels criminally underpriced at $6,100 with dual guard eligibility. He has the second-highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position and is a fantastic mid-range value option.

Fast Break

Austin Reaves ($8,000) – Reaves is another player who will benefit from the absence of LeBron James. In his 16 games played without James last season, Reaves increased his scoring output from 20.9 points to 28.4 and his assists per game from 4.5 to 7.8. The Lakers will be the Doncic and Reaves show. This will likely be the case all season. In lineups without Doncic, make it a point to get exposure to Reaves tonight.

Jalen Green ($6,300) – Green finished last season on a heater, averaging 35.5 points per game in the two play-in tournament games and then 21.8 per game in a four-game sweep against the Thunder. Green is another player priced in the mid-range worth discussing due to his ability to get scorching hot from the perimeter. Despite playing alongside Devin Booker, Green is still projected for a 29% usage rate tonight.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Kawhi Leonard ($7,400)

Leonard is back in “The 6” and coming off the best scoring season of his career, averaging 27.9 points per game. He continued to be efficient, shooting 50.5% from the field and 38.7% from long distance. He only spent one season with the Raptors, but it was long enough to win the only championship in franchise history. This may be the best Raptors team since that 2019 team, and Leonard is back to lead them again.

Projected for a 29.5% usage rate and priced at only $7,400, Leonard will be one of the most popular small forwards on the slate. With Bulls’ center Nic Claxton out for the next few weeks, the Bulls have virtually no rim protection. It will likely be a long season in Chicago regardless, and they ranked third in pace last year. The Raptors are near-double-digit home favorites tonight, implied for a slate-high 123 points in this spot.

Value

Grayson Allen ($4,300)

Similar to his teammate Dennis Schroder, Allen is another veteran who will be forced to play heavy minutes due to the Hornets’ injuries. He has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate and will be incredibly easy to fit into lineups at $4,300 with shooting guard and small forward eligibility. Allen is drawing nearly 30% projected ownership and will be one of the most popular value plays on this slate.

This is Allen’s first year with the Hornets after playing his last three seasons with the Suns. He is coming off a career-high 16.5 points per game last season, making 3.1 3-pointers per game. The Nets were solid in their 3-point volume defense last season, allowing the sixth-fewest 3-pointers made per game, but that is not enough to get off Allen at this cheap price tag. He is a great salary-saver tonight.

Fast Break

Franz Wagner ($6,900) – Wagner had the most injuries of his career last season and still managed to average over 20 points per game when he was healthy despite only playing 30 minutes per contest. Wagner is a key piece in the Magic’s future and can score at all three levels. Priced under $7,000 with a 26% projected usage rate, Wagner is a valuable mid-range option and is worth considering tonight.

Kevin Durant ($7,700) – Entering his 19th season in the league, Durant can still fill it up with the best of them. In his first season with the Rockets last year, Durant averaged a team-high 26 points per game while shooting 52% from the field and 41.3% from downtown. He also contributed 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. Drawing around 10% projected ownership, Durant is always a player worth considering.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,000)

After 13 years with the Bucks, Giannis makes his season debut for the Heat in what is projected to be the best game environment on the slate. The Giannis and Bam Adebayo pairing will probably be a work in progress, but Giannis did look incredible in his brief stint in the preseason. He is deservedly priced $1,000 less than Doncic due to his projected usage rate and minutes, but it is still Giannis we’re talking about.

Despite having Rudy Gobert anchoring the defense, the Timberwolves ranked below average in points allowed per game in the paint last season. It is difficult to play Giannis and Doncic together in a lineup due to their pricing, so deciding between the two is arguably the most important decision on the slate. The slight lean goes to Doncic, but Giannis can still provide slate-winning upside in this spot.

Value

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,400)

Jackson Jr. only got to play three games for the Jazz last season before being shut down due to injury and the Jazz tanking. In those three contests, he averaged 22.3 points in only 24 minutes per game. Getting Jackson Jr. last season increases their defensive upside while also providing another scoring threat. He averaged 22 points per game in back-to-back seasons with the Grizzlies while being a defensive stalwart.

With power forward and center eligibility, Jackson Jr. leads the slate with the highest optimal lineup rate in our NBA Sims at 33.3%. He leads this position in projected Plus/Minus and is drawing around 30% projected ownership. This slate is littered with talented power forwards, making it more likely Jackson Jr. will be played at the center position tonight. He is simply too cheap for his projected output in this spot.

Fast Break

Anthony Davis ($7,600) – Davis is a complete unknown for the Wizards, but we know the talent is there. He only played 20 games last season but averaged a 20-point, 11-rebound double-double while shooting over 50% from the field for the fourth straight season. The Wizards will be without rookie AJ Dybantsa, which may be a little added boost to Davis’ usage rate and production for the season opener.

Jalen Johnson ($9,000) – Johnson averaged nearly a triple-double last season while being a lockdown defender. He had a career-high 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game. He continues to improve and is a strong contrarian pay-up option tonight against the Magic. Projected for less than 5% ownership, Johnson has displayed triple-double upside, and this game has a respectable 235.5-point total.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Domantas Sabonis ($7,700)

Despite ranking third in salary at the center position, Sabonis is projected for the highest ceiling at this position in our NBA Model. After an incredible 2025 campaign in which he led the league in rebounding with a career-high 13.9 per game, Sabonis only played 19 games last season due to injury. Sabonis is a mini-Nikola Jokic with how he controls the game. At $7,700, he is a solid option on this 11-game slate.

The Clippers were a stout interior defense with Ivica Zubac, but he was traded mid-season last year to the Pacers. They still have Brook Lopez, who is a strong defender, but Sabonis provides fantasy points in a variety of ways. In his salary range, Sabonis has a higher ceiling than his peers, especially at the center position. It may be another long season for the Kings, but Sabonis will still be a fantastic fantasy asset.

Value

Draymond Green ($4,500)

The years of the Golden State dynasty are likely behind us, but Green continues to be a staple for the Warriors and is seemingly underpriced on opening night. At $4,500 with power forward and center eligibility, Green has a high projected Plus/Minus and is projected to play 28 minutes, which is more than enough time to pay off his salary. His usage rate remains low, but Green is still productive without the ball.

Green had one of his worst efficiency seasons last year, shooting a putrid 41.8% from the field. However, he still averaged 8.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, and a team-high 5.5 assists per game. The Warriors are playing tonight without Kristaps Porzingis, Jimmy Butler, and Brandin Podziemski. They are 6.5-point road underdogs against the Lakers, but Green should get enough activity to be a strong value at his price tag.

Fast Break

Ivica Zubac ($7,200) – As previously mentioned, Ivica Zubac only played five games for the Pacers last season before being shut down due to injury. He only played 23.6 minutes per game in those contests but did average a near double-double with 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. With his expected workload tonight, Zubac is a strong option. He is -156 on the DraftKings sportsbook to record a double-double.

Bam Adebayo ($8,500) – Adebayo is coming off one of the best years of his career, averaging a 20-point, 10-rebound double-double despite shooting a career-low 44.2% from the field. He went from not attempting a three for a majority of his career to attempting a career-high 5.5 per game last season, which boosts his ceiling. He will likely play second fiddle to Giannis but is still a play worth considering.

Pictured: Luka Doncic
Photo Credit: Imagn

After an exciting three games last night, the 2026-27 NBA season presents us with a sizable 11-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET. Many stars took center stage last night, but there is still a massive talent pool to sift through for tonight’s action.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

NFL, MLB, NBA, PGA, and MMA Sims
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Luka Doncic ($11,000)

Priced $1,000 more than the next closest player on this 11-game slate, Doncic has to provide a ceiling performance in tournaments to make him worth the price tag. He will get every opportunity to do so while leading the Lakers without LeBron James, who departed to Philly. In the 15 games Doncic played without James last season, he had a 35.7% usage rate while averaging 65.9 DraftKings points per game.

Even playing alongside James, Doncic is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. He averaged 33.5 points, 8.3 assists, and 7.7 rebounds per game. Doncic is projected for the highest ceiling on the slate by a comfortable margin. There is plenty of value to pay up for the best player available. Getting to Doncic against a Warriors defense that was below average last season is a great way to start lineups.

Value

Dennis Schroder ($3,700)

With Hornets’ guards Coby White and Kon Knueppel out for the season opener, Schroder is expected to start and is projected to play around 32 minutes. Priced at $3,700, Schroder has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. His cheap price tag makes it easy to pay up for the likes of Luka Doncic. The 14-year journeyman will have more than enough opportunity to pay off his salary in this incredible matchup.

Last season, the Nets ranked 25th in defensive rating and allowed their opponents to shoot a league-high 49.7% from the field and 38.1% from behind the arc. Schroder is mainly known for being a floor general in his later years but has shot 34.1% from downtown throughout his career. Schroder is drawing a slate-high 42% projected ownership, making him a must in cash-game contests and a strong tournament play.

Fast Break

Darius Garland ($7,000) – Currently projected for the second-highest ceiling and projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position, Garland is one of the lone bright spots for the Clippers tonight. Bradley Beal and Brandon Ingram are out, leaving Garland to lead this young Clippers team, who are home favorites against the Kings. Garland is one of five players on this slate who has a projected usage rate above 30%.

Damian Lillard ($6,500) – After tearing his Achilles in the first round of the 2025 playoffs, Lillard missed all of last season rehabbing and was then traded back home to the Trail Blazers. With Lillard paired with Ja Morant and Jrue Holiday, it is difficult to project what this offense will look like at the guard position this season. However, it is worth taking a chance on a fully healthy Lillard at his ridiculously low price tag of $6,500.

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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards ($8,800)

The acquisition of LaMelo Ball will let Edwards focus on what he does best: scoring the basketball. Edwards is coming off the best year of his career, averaging 28.8 points per game while shooting a blistering 48.9% from the field and 39.9% from distance. He comes into this season healthy and ready to take another step forward after dealing with injuries most of last season and even in last year’s playoffs.

This matchup against the Heat has the highest total on the slate at 242.5 points, with the Timberwolves as slight road underdogs. The Heat led the league in pace last season, while the Timberwolves are expected to play fast with Ball conducting the offense. Due to his inflated salary near $9,000, Edwards is projected for less than 5% ownership, making him a strong pay-up contrarian guard in tournaments.

Value

Ty Jerome ($6,100)

Jerome spent most of last season injured with a calf strain and then missed the final 11 games with an ankle injury. However, in his 15 games, Jerome was phenomenal, averaging a career-high 19.7 points and 5.7 assists per game while shooting 42% from downtown. The Grizzlies are a young team not expected to win many games, which means Jerome is likely going to lead them in many categories.

Beyond Timberwolves-Heat, Grizzlies-Jazz is the only game with a 240-point total. Both teams ranked in the top 10 in pace last season, and this is projected to be a high-paced game environment tonight. Jerome feels criminally underpriced at $6,100 with dual guard eligibility. He has the second-highest projected ceiling at the shooting guard position and is a fantastic mid-range value option.

Fast Break

Austin Reaves ($8,000) – Reaves is another player who will benefit from the absence of LeBron James. In his 16 games played without James last season, Reaves increased his scoring output from 20.9 points to 28.4 and his assists per game from 4.5 to 7.8. The Lakers will be the Doncic and Reaves show. This will likely be the case all season. In lineups without Doncic, make it a point to get exposure to Reaves tonight.

Jalen Green ($6,300) – Green finished last season on a heater, averaging 35.5 points per game in the two play-in tournament games and then 21.8 per game in a four-game sweep against the Thunder. Green is another player priced in the mid-range worth discussing due to his ability to get scorching hot from the perimeter. Despite playing alongside Devin Booker, Green is still projected for a 29% usage rate tonight.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Kawhi Leonard ($7,400)

Leonard is back in “The 6” and coming off the best scoring season of his career, averaging 27.9 points per game. He continued to be efficient, shooting 50.5% from the field and 38.7% from long distance. He only spent one season with the Raptors, but it was long enough to win the only championship in franchise history. This may be the best Raptors team since that 2019 team, and Leonard is back to lead them again.

Projected for a 29.5% usage rate and priced at only $7,400, Leonard will be one of the most popular small forwards on the slate. With Bulls’ center Nic Claxton out for the next few weeks, the Bulls have virtually no rim protection. It will likely be a long season in Chicago regardless, and they ranked third in pace last year. The Raptors are near-double-digit home favorites tonight, implied for a slate-high 123 points in this spot.

Value

Grayson Allen ($4,300)

Similar to his teammate Dennis Schroder, Allen is another veteran who will be forced to play heavy minutes due to the Hornets’ injuries. He has the fourth-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate and will be incredibly easy to fit into lineups at $4,300 with shooting guard and small forward eligibility. Allen is drawing nearly 30% projected ownership and will be one of the most popular value plays on this slate.

This is Allen’s first year with the Hornets after playing his last three seasons with the Suns. He is coming off a career-high 16.5 points per game last season, making 3.1 3-pointers per game. The Nets were solid in their 3-point volume defense last season, allowing the sixth-fewest 3-pointers made per game, but that is not enough to get off Allen at this cheap price tag. He is a great salary-saver tonight.

Fast Break

Franz Wagner ($6,900) – Wagner had the most injuries of his career last season and still managed to average over 20 points per game when he was healthy despite only playing 30 minutes per contest. Wagner is a key piece in the Magic’s future and can score at all three levels. Priced under $7,000 with a 26% projected usage rate, Wagner is a valuable mid-range option and is worth considering tonight.

Kevin Durant ($7,700) – Entering his 19th season in the league, Durant can still fill it up with the best of them. In his first season with the Rockets last year, Durant averaged a team-high 26 points per game while shooting 52% from the field and 41.3% from downtown. He also contributed 5.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. Drawing around 10% projected ownership, Durant is always a player worth considering.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,000)

After 13 years with the Bucks, Giannis makes his season debut for the Heat in what is projected to be the best game environment on the slate. The Giannis and Bam Adebayo pairing will probably be a work in progress, but Giannis did look incredible in his brief stint in the preseason. He is deservedly priced $1,000 less than Doncic due to his projected usage rate and minutes, but it is still Giannis we’re talking about.

Despite having Rudy Gobert anchoring the defense, the Timberwolves ranked below average in points allowed per game in the paint last season. It is difficult to play Giannis and Doncic together in a lineup due to their pricing, so deciding between the two is arguably the most important decision on the slate. The slight lean goes to Doncic, but Giannis can still provide slate-winning upside in this spot.

Value

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,400)

Jackson Jr. only got to play three games for the Jazz last season before being shut down due to injury and the Jazz tanking. In those three contests, he averaged 22.3 points in only 24 minutes per game. Getting Jackson Jr. last season increases their defensive upside while also providing another scoring threat. He averaged 22 points per game in back-to-back seasons with the Grizzlies while being a defensive stalwart.

With power forward and center eligibility, Jackson Jr. leads the slate with the highest optimal lineup rate in our NBA Sims at 33.3%. He leads this position in projected Plus/Minus and is drawing around 30% projected ownership. This slate is littered with talented power forwards, making it more likely Jackson Jr. will be played at the center position tonight. He is simply too cheap for his projected output in this spot.

Fast Break

Anthony Davis ($7,600) – Davis is a complete unknown for the Wizards, but we know the talent is there. He only played 20 games last season but averaged a 20-point, 11-rebound double-double while shooting over 50% from the field for the fourth straight season. The Wizards will be without rookie AJ Dybantsa, which may be a little added boost to Davis’ usage rate and production for the season opener.

Jalen Johnson ($9,000) – Johnson averaged nearly a triple-double last season while being a lockdown defender. He had a career-high 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game. He continues to improve and is a strong contrarian pay-up option tonight against the Magic. Projected for less than 5% ownership, Johnson has displayed triple-double upside, and this game has a respectable 235.5-point total.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Domantas Sabonis ($7,700)

Despite ranking third in salary at the center position, Sabonis is projected for the highest ceiling at this position in our NBA Model. After an incredible 2025 campaign in which he led the league in rebounding with a career-high 13.9 per game, Sabonis only played 19 games last season due to injury. Sabonis is a mini-Nikola Jokic with how he controls the game. At $7,700, he is a solid option on this 11-game slate.

The Clippers were a stout interior defense with Ivica Zubac, but he was traded mid-season last year to the Pacers. They still have Brook Lopez, who is a strong defender, but Sabonis provides fantasy points in a variety of ways. In his salary range, Sabonis has a higher ceiling than his peers, especially at the center position. It may be another long season for the Kings, but Sabonis will still be a fantastic fantasy asset.

Value

Draymond Green ($4,500)

The years of the Golden State dynasty are likely behind us, but Green continues to be a staple for the Warriors and is seemingly underpriced on opening night. At $4,500 with power forward and center eligibility, Green has a high projected Plus/Minus and is projected to play 28 minutes, which is more than enough time to pay off his salary. His usage rate remains low, but Green is still productive without the ball.

Green had one of his worst efficiency seasons last year, shooting a putrid 41.8% from the field. However, he still averaged 8.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, and a team-high 5.5 assists per game. The Warriors are playing tonight without Kristaps Porzingis, Jimmy Butler, and Brandin Podziemski. They are 6.5-point road underdogs against the Lakers, but Green should get enough activity to be a strong value at his price tag.

Fast Break

Ivica Zubac ($7,200) – As previously mentioned, Ivica Zubac only played five games for the Pacers last season before being shut down due to injury. He only played 23.6 minutes per game in those contests but did average a near double-double with 11.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. With his expected workload tonight, Zubac is a strong option. He is -156 on the DraftKings sportsbook to record a double-double.

Bam Adebayo ($8,500) – Adebayo is coming off one of the best years of his career, averaging a 20-point, 10-rebound double-double despite shooting a career-low 44.2% from the field. He went from not attempting a three for a majority of his career to attempting a career-high 5.5 per game last season, which boosts his ceiling. He will likely play second fiddle to Giannis but is still a play worth considering.

Pictured: Luka Doncic
Photo Credit: Imagn

About the Author

Tyler Schmidt writes NBA, NFL, and MLB content for FantasyLabs and Action Network. He has a degree in Management Information Systems and minor in Computer Science. Tyler has been playing DFS for over a decade and writing content as a freelancer for the past five years. He is a former collegiate basketball player who still holds the Minnesota State High School record for consecutive free throws with 72 that he set in 2009. Schmidt's strong knowledge of the game allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports.