NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Wednesday, March 5)

Sign up with the Underdog Fantasy promo code LABSNEWS to play DFS with picks featuring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and NBA games such as Thunder vs. Spurs and Timberwolves vs. Suns.

Tuesday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

Stud

There are tons of strong value options to consider on Wednesday, so paying up for a stud like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is definitely viable. SGA has had a fantastic season for the Thunder, and he’s become a sizable favorite to take home his first MVP award. For fantasy purposes, he’s averaged 1.58 DraftKings points per minute, which is easily the top mark among Wednesday’s point guards. He’s also coming off 51 points in his last outing – his fourth 50-point game of the season – and he’s scored at least 55.5 DraftKings points in four of his past six contests.

Gilgeous-Alexander has even more upside than usual on Wednesday. He’s taking on the Grizzlies, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. The game has a massive 250.5-point total, and the Thunder’s 130.25 implied team total ranks first on the slate by nearly 10 points.

SGA is also priced at a discount on DraftKings. His $10,800 salary comes with a 91% Bargain Rating, so there’s plenty to like about him on Wednesday.


Value

I can’t help but feel bad for the Mavericks’ fans at this point. Trading away Luka Doncic was bad enough, but they’ve had to watch the team crumble to pieces since then. Anthony Davis lasted exactly one game before getting injured, while Kyrie Irving just went down with a torn ACL. Guys like P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively, and Jaden Hardy are also out of the lineup on Wednesday, so the team is going to be extremely shorthanded.

That leaves Spencer Dinwiddie to carry a massive offensive burden. Dinwiddie has been solid when given extended opportunities this season, averaging 0.84 DraftKings points per minute, and he should be more productive with the team missing so many key contributors. He’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and Dinwiddie has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.37 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool). He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus and should be a staple in cash game lineup constructions.


Fast Break

The Jazz are another team that will be extremely thin on Wednesday, making Keyonte George and Isaiah Collier strong options at point guard. George has served as the team’s primary scorer with Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Collin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson all unavailable, while Collier has filled more of a traditional point guard role. George has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with Markkanen, Collins, Sexton, and Clarkson off the floor, while Collier isn’t far behind at 1.02. Both players are projected for 31 minutes on this slate, so both provide value at their current price tags.

Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis are both doubtful for Wednesday, while Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are questionable. That opens up scenarios for both Derrick White and Payton Pritchard to provide massive value. Make sure to monitor the injury report for updates before lineup lock.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

As if there weren’t enough injuries already, the Kings have the potential to be without two of their top players on Wednesday. Domantas Sabonis has already been ruled out, while Malik Monk is currently listed as questionable.

Zach LaVine hasn’t been quite as productive with the Kings as he was with the Bulls, but that could change vs. the Nuggets. He’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with Sabonis off the floor in 11 games with Sacramento, which represents a big increase from his average of 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

The matchup vs. the Nuggets is also favorable. Denver has played at the fifth-fastest pace this season, and this contest has the second-highest total on the slate. LaVine shouldn’t garner a ton of ownership – he’s currently projected for 10.1% – making him an interesting contrarian option for tournaments.


Value

If Dinwiddie is the 1A value option in the backcourt on Wednesday, Bub Carrington is the 1B. The Wizards are currently playing without Jordan Poole, which has allowed Carrington to take over as the team’s top point guard. He’s coming off 33.25 DraftKings points in his last outing despite the Wizards managing just 90 points against the Heat.

Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Jazz should be significantly easier. Utah ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, so the entire offense should be more productive.


Fast Break

Klay Thompson is another potential option for the Mavericks. He’s not the same player at this point in his career, but he should see a solid spike in usage with the team so shorthanded. That said, don’t expect a huge bump in playing time. He’s played limited minutes for most of the season, and we have him projected for 30 minutes vs. the Bucks. Still, his optimal lineup rate is nearly 5% higher than his projected ownership, so he’s a solid pivot off some of the more chalky value options for tournaments.

Anthony Edwards has the top ceiling projection at the position, which is worth more than usual on a slate with so much value. He shouldn’t need to do quite as much with Julius Randle back in the rotation, but he’s still averaged an outstanding 1.42 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

If Tatum is able to suit up for the Celtics, he’s worth considering as a stud option. He’s had another fantastic season for the defending champs, racking up 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. He erupted for 87.5 DraftKings points vs. the Cavaliers two games ago, so he’s displayed plenty of upside as well.

That game came with Holiday and Porzingis out of the lineup, and both players are expected to be sidelined once again. Tatum has seen a clear boost in that scenario, increasing his usage rate by a team-high +4.13% in that split. He’s increased his fantasy output to 1.49 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s taking on a Blazers squad that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency. Overall, he has the potential for a massive game.

If Brown is also sidelined, Tatum moves into must-play territory. He’s seen a usage bump of nearly 10% with Brown, Porzingis, and Holiday all off the floor, so he’d be one of the strongest stud targets on the slate.


Value

Brice Sensabaugh is coming off a poor showing in his last outing, but he played just 16.2 minutes. His playing time should return to normal on Wednesday’s slate – he’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models – and he’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute for the year. Before Monday’s clunker, Sensabaugh had played at least 22.6 minutes in five straight games, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them. Overall, Sensabaugh has played at least 28 minutes in seven games for his career, and he’s responded with an average of 29.11 DraftKings points per game. That’s excellent for someone who costs just $4,300.


Fast Break

Max Christie was acquired by the Mavs as part of the Doncic trade, and he’s been a nice addition. He’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 34 minutes on Wednesday’s slate. Only Sensabaugh is showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a higher frequency at small forward.

Like LaVine, DeMar DeRozan is another stud-caliber player for the Kings who could be overlooked. He should see a bump in value with Sabonis out of the lineup, and he could be even more valuable if Monk is sidelined as well.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Julius Randle continues to stand out as underpriced in his return to the lineup. He hasn’t been quite as valuable in his first season with the Timberwolves, but he’s still averaged a solid 1.10 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games since returning to the lineup, despite playing less than 30 minutes in his last contest. Randle should pick up a few additional minutes if Wednesday’s game is more competitive, and $6,500 is simply too cheap of a price tag for him: he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.04 with a comparable salary.


Value

The Wizards are in an interesting spot at the moment. They have a host of veteran players on their roster, but they also have a bunch of young players who need development. Unsurprisingly, the team has sided more with giving minutes to the youngsters in recent games.

That includes Kyshawn George. His playing time has been up recently, and he’s responded with an average Plus/Minus of +5.94 over his past 10 games. He’s increased his production to 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for another 32 minutes Wednesday vs. the Jazz. His salary has yet to reflect his increased role on DraftKings, resulting in an 82% Bargain Rating.


Fast Break

Giannis Antetokounmpo is another possible pay-up option on this slate. Antetokounmpo continues to produce at an elite level, averaging 1.78 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, though his minutes have been capped recently. However, he was up closer to 34 minutes in his last outing, so it’s possible that could be changing. If he’s going to return to playing 34+ minutes a night, he’s too cheap at $11,000. Even if he doesn’t, he still has the top ceiling projection at the position.

Naji Marshall should also see a boost in value for the shorthanded Mavs. Marshall has been extremely productive when given the opportunity to play this season, and he’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for 32 minutes on this slate, which should be more than enough for him to return value.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

With Sabonis out of the lineup, the coast is clear for Jonas Valanciunas to assume a starting role for the Kings. That’s an excellent proposition for fantasy players. Valanciunas has always been an elite per-minute producer, but minutes have been tougher to come by for him this season. He’s still averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute, but he’s averaging a career-low 19.7 minutes per game. That includes just 16.1 minutes in his 10 games with Kings.

However, he’s logged at least 23.4 minutes in back-to-back contests, and he’s responded with at least 33.75 DraftKings points in each. He’s expected to see closer to 30 minutes on Wednesday, and if that happens, he has massive upside at just $6,400. He’s cracked 26 minutes in just five games this season, and he’s averaged just under 40 DraftKings points in those outings.


Value

Walker Kessler will join some of the other Jazz’ starters on the sidelines on Wednesday, which should allow Oscar Tshiebwe to see a few additional minutes. He’s been dominant when he has played this season, averaging 1.64 DraftKings points per minute, so that’s an appealing proposition.

Even better, Tshiebwe is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. His salary comes with a 94% Bargain Rating, so he’s one of the best pure values on the slate.


Fast Break

Kyle Filipowski is a more conventional center option for the Jazz. He’s expected to see most of the minutes in Utah, and he’s also been extremely efficient on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 1.22 over the past month. Filipowski has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including at least 36.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.

Kai Jones came seemingly out of nowhere for the Mavericks on Monday. He had barely played for most of the season, but he saw more than 33 minutes vs. the Kings. Jones racked up 21 points and eight rebounds in that contest, resulting in 32.5 DraftKings points. He’s projected for another 30 minutes on Wednesday, making him a decent option at $5,000.

Tuesday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

Stud

There are tons of strong value options to consider on Wednesday, so paying up for a stud like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is definitely viable. SGA has had a fantastic season for the Thunder, and he’s become a sizable favorite to take home his first MVP award. For fantasy purposes, he’s averaged 1.58 DraftKings points per minute, which is easily the top mark among Wednesday’s point guards. He’s also coming off 51 points in his last outing – his fourth 50-point game of the season – and he’s scored at least 55.5 DraftKings points in four of his past six contests.

Gilgeous-Alexander has even more upside than usual on Wednesday. He’s taking on the Grizzlies, who have played at the fastest pace in the league this season. The game has a massive 250.5-point total, and the Thunder’s 130.25 implied team total ranks first on the slate by nearly 10 points.

SGA is also priced at a discount on DraftKings. His $10,800 salary comes with a 91% Bargain Rating, so there’s plenty to like about him on Wednesday.


Value

I can’t help but feel bad for the Mavericks’ fans at this point. Trading away Luka Doncic was bad enough, but they’ve had to watch the team crumble to pieces since then. Anthony Davis lasted exactly one game before getting injured, while Kyrie Irving just went down with a torn ACL. Guys like P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively, and Jaden Hardy are also out of the lineup on Wednesday, so the team is going to be extremely shorthanded.

That leaves Spencer Dinwiddie to carry a massive offensive burden. Dinwiddie has been solid when given extended opportunities this season, averaging 0.84 DraftKings points per minute, and he should be more productive with the team missing so many key contributors. He’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, and Dinwiddie has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.37 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool). He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus and should be a staple in cash game lineup constructions.


Fast Break

The Jazz are another team that will be extremely thin on Wednesday, making Keyonte George and Isaiah Collier strong options at point guard. George has served as the team’s primary scorer with Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Collin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson all unavailable, while Collier has filled more of a traditional point guard role. George has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with Markkanen, Collins, Sexton, and Clarkson off the floor, while Collier isn’t far behind at 1.02. Both players are projected for 31 minutes on this slate, so both provide value at their current price tags.

Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis are both doubtful for Wednesday, while Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are questionable. That opens up scenarios for both Derrick White and Payton Pritchard to provide massive value. Make sure to monitor the injury report for updates before lineup lock.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

As if there weren’t enough injuries already, the Kings have the potential to be without two of their top players on Wednesday. Domantas Sabonis has already been ruled out, while Malik Monk is currently listed as questionable.

Zach LaVine hasn’t been quite as productive with the Kings as he was with the Bulls, but that could change vs. the Nuggets. He’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with Sabonis off the floor in 11 games with Sacramento, which represents a big increase from his average of 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

The matchup vs. the Nuggets is also favorable. Denver has played at the fifth-fastest pace this season, and this contest has the second-highest total on the slate. LaVine shouldn’t garner a ton of ownership – he’s currently projected for 10.1% – making him an interesting contrarian option for tournaments.


Value

If Dinwiddie is the 1A value option in the backcourt on Wednesday, Bub Carrington is the 1B. The Wizards are currently playing without Jordan Poole, which has allowed Carrington to take over as the team’s top point guard. He’s coming off 33.25 DraftKings points in his last outing despite the Wizards managing just 90 points against the Heat.

Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Jazz should be significantly easier. Utah ranks dead last in defensive efficiency, so the entire offense should be more productive.


Fast Break

Klay Thompson is another potential option for the Mavericks. He’s not the same player at this point in his career, but he should see a solid spike in usage with the team so shorthanded. That said, don’t expect a huge bump in playing time. He’s played limited minutes for most of the season, and we have him projected for 30 minutes vs. the Bucks. Still, his optimal lineup rate is nearly 5% higher than his projected ownership, so he’s a solid pivot off some of the more chalky value options for tournaments.

Anthony Edwards has the top ceiling projection at the position, which is worth more than usual on a slate with so much value. He shouldn’t need to do quite as much with Julius Randle back in the rotation, but he’s still averaged an outstanding 1.42 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

If Tatum is able to suit up for the Celtics, he’s worth considering as a stud option. He’s had another fantastic season for the defending champs, racking up 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. He erupted for 87.5 DraftKings points vs. the Cavaliers two games ago, so he’s displayed plenty of upside as well.

That game came with Holiday and Porzingis out of the lineup, and both players are expected to be sidelined once again. Tatum has seen a clear boost in that scenario, increasing his usage rate by a team-high +4.13% in that split. He’s increased his fantasy output to 1.49 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s taking on a Blazers squad that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency. Overall, he has the potential for a massive game.

If Brown is also sidelined, Tatum moves into must-play territory. He’s seen a usage bump of nearly 10% with Brown, Porzingis, and Holiday all off the floor, so he’d be one of the strongest stud targets on the slate.


Value

Brice Sensabaugh is coming off a poor showing in his last outing, but he played just 16.2 minutes. His playing time should return to normal on Wednesday’s slate – he’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models – and he’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute for the year. Before Monday’s clunker, Sensabaugh had played at least 22.6 minutes in five straight games, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them. Overall, Sensabaugh has played at least 28 minutes in seven games for his career, and he’s responded with an average of 29.11 DraftKings points per game. That’s excellent for someone who costs just $4,300.


Fast Break

Max Christie was acquired by the Mavs as part of the Doncic trade, and he’s been a nice addition. He’s averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 34 minutes on Wednesday’s slate. Only Sensabaugh is showing up in the optimal lineup simulations at a higher frequency at small forward.

Like LaVine, DeMar DeRozan is another stud-caliber player for the Kings who could be overlooked. He should see a bump in value with Sabonis out of the lineup, and he could be even more valuable if Monk is sidelined as well.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Julius Randle continues to stand out as underpriced in his return to the lineup. He hasn’t been quite as valuable in his first season with the Timberwolves, but he’s still averaged a solid 1.10 DraftKings points per minute. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first two games since returning to the lineup, despite playing less than 30 minutes in his last contest. Randle should pick up a few additional minutes if Wednesday’s game is more competitive, and $6,500 is simply too cheap of a price tag for him: he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.04 with a comparable salary.


Value

The Wizards are in an interesting spot at the moment. They have a host of veteran players on their roster, but they also have a bunch of young players who need development. Unsurprisingly, the team has sided more with giving minutes to the youngsters in recent games.

That includes Kyshawn George. His playing time has been up recently, and he’s responded with an average Plus/Minus of +5.94 over his past 10 games. He’s increased his production to 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for another 32 minutes Wednesday vs. the Jazz. His salary has yet to reflect his increased role on DraftKings, resulting in an 82% Bargain Rating.


Fast Break

Giannis Antetokounmpo is another possible pay-up option on this slate. Antetokounmpo continues to produce at an elite level, averaging 1.78 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, though his minutes have been capped recently. However, he was up closer to 34 minutes in his last outing, so it’s possible that could be changing. If he’s going to return to playing 34+ minutes a night, he’s too cheap at $11,000. Even if he doesn’t, he still has the top ceiling projection at the position.

Naji Marshall should also see a boost in value for the shorthanded Mavs. Marshall has been extremely productive when given the opportunity to play this season, and he’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for 32 minutes on this slate, which should be more than enough for him to return value.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

With Sabonis out of the lineup, the coast is clear for Jonas Valanciunas to assume a starting role for the Kings. That’s an excellent proposition for fantasy players. Valanciunas has always been an elite per-minute producer, but minutes have been tougher to come by for him this season. He’s still averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute, but he’s averaging a career-low 19.7 minutes per game. That includes just 16.1 minutes in his 10 games with Kings.

However, he’s logged at least 23.4 minutes in back-to-back contests, and he’s responded with at least 33.75 DraftKings points in each. He’s expected to see closer to 30 minutes on Wednesday, and if that happens, he has massive upside at just $6,400. He’s cracked 26 minutes in just five games this season, and he’s averaged just under 40 DraftKings points in those outings.


Value

Walker Kessler will join some of the other Jazz’ starters on the sidelines on Wednesday, which should allow Oscar Tshiebwe to see a few additional minutes. He’s been dominant when he has played this season, averaging 1.64 DraftKings points per minute, so that’s an appealing proposition.

Even better, Tshiebwe is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. His salary comes with a 94% Bargain Rating, so he’s one of the best pure values on the slate.


Fast Break

Kyle Filipowski is a more conventional center option for the Jazz. He’s expected to see most of the minutes in Utah, and he’s also been extremely efficient on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 1.22 over the past month. Filipowski has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including at least 36.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.

Kai Jones came seemingly out of nowhere for the Mavericks on Monday. He had barely played for most of the season, but he saw more than 33 minutes vs. the Kings. Jones racked up 21 points and eight rebounds in that contest, resulting in 32.5 DraftKings points. He’s projected for another 30 minutes on Wednesday, making him a decent option at $5,000.