The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Payton Tolle (L) $9,000 Boston Red Sox (-266) vs. Athletics
Friday’s main slate has 12 MLB matchups on the board for DraftKings contests, and of the 24 starting pitchers, Tolle has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections. He also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal. He has the second-highest strikeout prediction, and his team is the heaviest favorite on the slate, per the Vegas dashboard.
The Red Sox have gone an impressive 32-5 over their last 37 games and have won eight straight after sweeping the White Sox. It took extra innings and nine starting pitchers to secure the win on Thursday, so they’ll look to get some length from the lefty Tolle on Friday at Fenway.
Tolle has gone 6-6 in his 18 starts this season, with a 3.41 FIP and 1.15 WHIP backing up his 3.30 ERA. He has 110 strikeouts in 101 innings, averaging 17.8 DraftKings points per start. He’s been even better lately, though, posting over 16 DraftKings points in five straight starts while averaging 20.3 DraftKings points per game.
Two starts ago, Tolle faced the A’s in Sacramento and held them to two runs in 5⅓ innings with seven strikeouts to earn 22.4 DraftKings points. Since he should be in a better environment in the rematch at Fenway, Tolle brings a very high ceiling on Friday.
With the Red Sox rolling, Tolle is a strong stud to build around, even though he has only the fifth-highest salary among Friday night’s available starting pitchers.
MLB DFS Value Pick
George Klassen (R) $5,000 Los Angeles Angels (+141) at Miami Marlins
Klassen has the sixth-highest Plus/Minus projection in the FantasyLabs projections but the highest Plus/Minus on the entire slate in the projections from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. Klassen is an incredible value at only $5,000, and he doesn’t have to do a lot to be worth paying this salary. He leaves plenty of room to stack whatever offensive stars you want across the rest of your roster.
Klassen is a 24-year-old righty whom the Angels acquired in a deadline deal with the Phillies in 2024. He struggled in a couple of early-season outings in the majors but has been very effective in Triple-A. He has an ugly 11.57 ERA and 9.74 FIP in just 4⅔ MLB innings, but he’s shown a much higher ceiling while pitching for the Salt Lake Bees.
In his last 12 minor-league starts, he’s 6-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He has 68 strikeouts in 66⅔ innings, and he’s been even better since July 1, allowing more than two runs in just one of his six starts. The Bees play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League (PCL), so Klassen’s numbers are even better than they initially appear.
Klassen gets a good matchup in his return to the majors as he faces the Marlins. Miami has been extremely hot and cold over the last month, and they’re coming off a rough sweep in Atlanta, where they scored only six total runs in three games.
While he’s high-risk, the value potential is definitely there if Klassen can carry his strong minor-league numbers over to a better showing in his second stint in the majors.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Noah Schultz (L) $5,800 Chicago White Sox (+122) vs. Cleveland Guardians
Schultz is another young pitcher with a very high ceiling on Friday, but he also comes with very high risk. His ownership projection is under 5%, though, so he could be a great source of leverage if he steps up and delivers on his potential. He’s shown flashes of his high upside, but he needs more consistency before he’s ready for cash games.
For tournament lineups, though, Schultz has the strikeout ceiling to be a good leverage play. He went five innings against the Rays in his most recent appearance, striking out four and allowing just one run for 14.8 DraftKings points. He worked behind an opener in that game, and the team could use the same strategy on Friday, depending on who’s available after their extra-inning loss to the Red Sox on Thursday.
Schultz flashed for 18+ DraftKings points in four of his first five MLB starts but has had a rough adjustment period since then. He did post 18.2 DraftKings points in a strong outing against the A’s just before the All-Star break, then followed it with that good game in Tampa last Saturday.
Schultz gets a favorable matchup against the lefty-heavy Guardians, who have the third-worst team batting average and second-worst team ISO in the MLB against southpaws. The Guardians have only an 87 team wRC+ against lefties, meaning they’re 13% below league average in run production in the splits.
With the solid matchup and his team needing some innings from the 23-year-old southpaw, Schultz is worth a flier if you’re looking for a cheap, off-the-radar option that still brings good upside.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by points projection, belongs to the Chicago Cubs Twins:
The Cubs are on the road this weekend in Kansas City, taking on the struggling Royals. They’re coming off a nice sweep of the Dodgers, and they also won a makeup game against the Blue Jays on Thursday. They’re 10-4 in their last 14 games and get a good matchup against Daniel Lynch IV, who will be making his first start of the season.
The 29-year-old lefty has been good out of the bullpen, with a 1.96 ERA in 46 innings this season, but he hasn’t pitched more than two innings in any outing this year. It’s mostly a bullpen game for the Royals, and their bullpen has been very mashable this season. As a result, the Cubs have the second-highest implied run total on the board and have the top stack at the top of their lineup.
Pete Crow-Armstrong has 15+ DraftKings points in three straight games and is averaging 14.4 DraftKings points per game over his last 16 contests. Seiya Suzuki is also averaging over 10 DraftKings points per game in his last 10 games, while Alex Bregman and Michael Busch have also been heating up with very strong power potential. Even with the lefty Lynch on the mound, the rest of the game should allow the lefties in this stack to thrive.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jo Adell OF ($3,700) Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox (Noah Schultz)
In the aggregate projections, Adell has the top Projected Plus/Minus of all players under $4,000 on the slate. The Guardians brought him in at the MLB trade deadline to give their lineup some added power, especially extra thunder against lefties like Schultz.
Adell had 12 DraftKings points by going 2-for-4 with a double in his Guardians debut on Tuesday, and he had a walk and a run scored on Wednesday in his second start for his new squad. He didn’t start Thursday against a righty but should be back in the heart of the order, possibly even cleanup, against Schultz on Friday.
Adell is hitting .306 with a .386 wOBA and 10 of his 16 homers this season against lefties. The Guardians got him for exactly these kinds of matchups, and he’s still affordable enough to be a good value on Friday night.
Nick Sogard ($3,100) Boston Red Sox vs. Athletics (Jack Perkins)
The red-hot Red Sox have the highest implied run total on the board as they host the struggling Athletics at Fenway Park as heavy favorites. One great way to get value in the Red Sox order is to target Sogard at the top of the lineup.
Sogard has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all 2B in the aggregate projections, and the 28-year-old has been very solid since returning from Triple-A at the end of July. In his seven games since his most recent call-up, he’s hitting .222 (6-for-27) with seven walks and a .312 wOBA. He has a double and six runs scored during those seven games.
Here’s how he and the rest of the Sox stack up at Fenway Park in our PlateIQ tool:
Andrew Vaughn 1B ($3,200) Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins (Zebby Matthews)
Vaughn has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all 1B, behind only Michael Busch of the Cubs (mentioned above). He’s hit safely in four straight games while helping fill in for Jake Bauers (abdominal).
Vaughn has three homers in his last 15 games while going 12-for-45 (.267) with a .379 wOBA. He’s striking out a lot, with multiple K’s in four of his last five contests, but he continues to put up good numbers when he puts the ball in play.
He’ll likely be in the lineup again on Friday as the Brewers host the Twins and Zebby Matthews, who has gone 2-4 with a 7.33 ERA in his eight road starts while serving up 12 homers. Both righties and lefties have produced against him, so the Brewers are a solid place to find value, including with Vaughn at first base.
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Pictured: Payton Tolle
Photo Credit: Imagn
