Tuesday features a four-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
It is likely the final four-game slate of the NBA season. Two teams have already punched their ticket to the second round, and the Pacers, Knicks, and Celtics could join them tonight. The other game features Game 5 between the Clippers and Nuggets in what has been the most exciting first-round series. That series is currently knotted at two games apiece, so the winner will take a decisive edge headed into Game 6.
While the Pistons are currently down three games to one, it could very easily be 3-1 in the other direction. They could’ve won Game 1 if not for a dreadful stretch in the fourth quarter, and Tim Hardaway Jr. should’ve gotten a foul call on a game-winning 3-point attempt in Game 4. In other words, this series has been extremely competitive.
For fantasy purposes, Cade Cunningham has delivered the goods in his first taste of playoff basketball. He’s racked up at least 56.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, including at least 60.75 in his past two. Overall, he’s averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should play 42+ minutes in an elimination contest. That makes him tough to overlook at $9,800.
Cunningham also leads the position with 14 Pro Trends, and he has the third-highest ceiling projection on the entire slate. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic are higher, and both players cost significantly more. It makes Cunningham arguably the best combination of value and upside for Tuesday’s four games.
Value
The Bucks were dealt a massive blow in Game 4, with Damian Lillard suffering an Achilles injury. Not only will he miss the rest of the playoffs, but he’ll almost certainly miss all of next season as well. It leaves the team with little hope for the future, despite having one of the best players in basketball.
Kevin Porter Jr. is going to have to help pick up the slack. He was a key part of the Bucks’ rotation with Lillard sidelined down the stretch, and he’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. He should be able to smash his $5,000 price tag with that much playing time. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.56 in five career games with a comparable salary and at least 30 minutes (per the Trends tool), and he leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus.
KPJ is going to be chalky – he’s currently projected for 47.1% ownership – but that still might not be high enough. His optimal lineup rate is above 69%, and sources of value like Porter are extremely scarce during the playoffs. Locking him into your lineups and looking to diversify elsewhere makes the most sense.
Fast Break
Tyrese Haliburton is right behind Cunningham from a value standpoint. He doesn’t have the same upside, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games. He won’t have to carry the same massive workload as some of the other stars on this slate, but he doesn’t need to at just $8,500.
Jalen Brunson could once again fly a bit under the radar at point guard. His ownership was significantly lower than Cunningham’s and Haliburton’s on Sunday, but he delivered at least 54.25 DraftKings points for the third straight game. That makes him a solid pivot for tournaments.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Shooting guard does not look like a particularly strong position to pay up at on Tuesday. Jamal Murray has the top ceiling projection, but it’s well below the top point guards. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, and he’s scored 38.5 DraftKings points or fewer in three straight outings.
That said, Murray could be a candidate for some positive regression. Specifically, he shot just 5-17 from the field in his last outing, which is well below his typical level. Murray is capable of lighting up the scoreboard, even if he may not be the same player that he was during the Nuggets’ championship run two years ago. He’s projected for 41 minutes in Game 5, and he can certainly bounce back with a better performance.
Value
Mikal Bridges is coming off a subpar showing in his last outing, finishing with just 25.5 DraftKings points in 43.5 minutes. That said, it still wasn’t a dreadful performance – he posted a -1.55 Plus/Minus – despite shooting just 3-12 from the field. Bridges had 43.25 and 32.25 DraftKings points in his previous two outings, so he’s certainly capable of paying off his $5,900 salary.
Ultimately, Bridges leads the position in projected Plus/Minus, and he has the highest optimal lineup rate at shooting guard as well.
Fast Break
Aaron Nesmith has been excellent for the Pacers during the postseason. He’s not seeing a ton of minutes, but he’s making the most out of his court time. He racked up a massive 38.25 DraftKings points in 26.9 minutes in Game 4, and he posted a positive Plus/Minus in Games 2 and 4 as well. Overall, Nesmith has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 28 minutes vs. the Bucks on Tuesday.
It’s hard to find a better combination of minutes and salary than Hardaway. He’s projected for 32 minutes at just $4,100, and players with comparable marks in both areas have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.39. Hardaway isn’t the best per-minute producer, but his 3-point shooting ability gives him a smidge of upside on nights when his shot is falling.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum and the Celtics will likely be contrarian targets on Tuesday. Their game has a total of just 198 points, which is the lowest of the day by a comfortable margin. Orlando has also been one of the worst matchups in basketball all season, combining a solid defense with one of the slowest paces in the league.
That said, Tatum is capable of producing in any matchup. He put that on display in Game 4, racking up 67.0 DraftKings points with a dominant 37 points, 14 rebounds, three assists, and three blocks. He played more than 42 minutes in that contest, and he’s been a fantastic per-minute producer all season.
Tatum is expected to garner roughly 5% ownership on this slate, and that makes sense with some of the other top studs that are available. That makes him a very interesting pivot for tournaments.
Value
OG Anunoby checks a lot of the same boxes as Bridges. Both players routinely play all the minutes they can handle, and Anunoby is projected for 40.5 minutes on Tuesday’s slate.
He’s a bit more expensive than Bridges at $6,300, but he makes up for it with superior per-minute production. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s a bit more well-rounded for fantasy purposes. Anunoby has struggled of late, posting a negative Plus/Minus over his past three outings, but there’s no reason to expect that to continue. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus, edging out Bridges by a decent margin.
Fast Break
The Magic are going to need a big game from Franz Wagner if they have any chance at staving off elimination. In their lone win in this series, Wagner erupted for 57.0 DraftKings points on 32 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists. He followed that up with 42.0 DraftKings points in Game 4, so he’s a reasonable target at $8,200.
Norman Powell hasn’t had a tremendous impact in this series vs. the Nuggets, but he’s still a capable scorer. He’s coming off his best game in Game 4, racking up 22 points and 31.5 DraftKings points in 35.5 minutes. Powell’s scoring numbers are down with a healthy James Harden and Kawhi Leonard on the floor, but his price tag has dipped to a reasonable $5,700.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Antetokounmpo has done his job vs. the Pacers. He’s gobbled up points and rebounds in bunches, resulting in at least 57.5 DraftKings points in all four games. He’s done that despite playing 33.8 minutes or fewer in his past two outings, and he should see significantly more playing time in a must-win contest.
Giannis is going to have to carry an immense burden to try to keep the Bucks competitive. He’s been a usage monster during the postseason, and he’s seen a significant bump to his assist rate with Lillard and Khris Middleton off the floor this season. In other words, he’s going to have to do everything for the offense on Tuesday.
The big question is whether or not you can afford him. Squeezing in his $11,300 salary is easier said than done during the playoffs, when value options are hard to come by. That said, he could be worth it on this slate. He has the top ceiling projection in our NBA Models, and he grades out as a pretty solid value in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Value
Bobby Portis is a more reasonably priced option for Milwaukee. He has seen the bulk of the center minutes in this series, with Brook Lopez being run off the floor by the Pacers. That’s an appealing prospect for Portis. He’s logged at least 31.9 minutes in two games in this series, and he’s posted 51.0 and 27.0 DraftKings points in those outings.
Portis has always been an excellent per-minute producer, so there’s no reason to expect much different in Game 5. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and if he gets to that figure, he has a great chance to return value.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with an 84% Bargain Rating. Siakam scored at least 41.75 DraftKings points in his first three games in this series, but he wasn’t really needed in the team’s Game 4 blowout. He’s ultimately averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should play around 34 minutes if Tuesday’s game is more competitive.
Leonard appears healthier than he’s been in years, and he’s put together some solid performances vs. the Nuggets. His Game 2 performance was legendary – 39 points on a near-perfect 15-19 shooting – and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games. His upside isn’t quite as high as some of the other players on this slate, but he’s still a strong target.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Jokic continues to do Jokic things during the playoffs. It was looking bleak for the Nuggets heading into Game 4, but he rattled off 36 points, 21 rebounds, and eight assists to even the series at two games apiece. It’s the type of statline that only Jokic can produce, and he’s done it at such a regular frequency that NBA fans have become a bit desensitized to them. Fifty years from now, kids will look back at his numbers in awe, just as current kids do with Wilt Chamberlain.
For fantasy purposes, Jokic finished with 82.25 DraftKings points in that contest. It was his fourth straight game with at least 65.0 in this series and his third game with at least 43.3 minutes. With the Nuggets’ bench thoroughly depleted, expect another massive dose of Jokic on Tuesday. He’s not grading out quite as well as Antetokounmpo in our NBA Models, but he has the potential to break the slate every time he takes the floor.
Value
Myles Turner has been an afterthought for the Pacers for most of the season, but he’s put together some solid performances in this series. He’s gone for at least 40.25 DraftKings points in two of four games, though his other two performances have left a lot to be desired. He has a wide range of outcomes, but he stands out as one of the better values if paying down at the position.
Fast Break
Al Horford continues to get the job done for the Celtics. He’s slated to turn 39 years old before the end of the season, but Horford has delivered at least 24.25 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for another 34 minutes in Game 5.
Karl-Anthony Towns is down to $8,600 on DraftKings, and he has some buy-low appeal at that figure. He was much more aggressive on offense in Game 4, with his 23 shot attempts standing out as his high-water mark for the series. If he can pair he’s increased offensive aggression with some better rebounding numbers, he has the potential to put up a big number.
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Pictured: Cade Cunningham
Photo Credit: Getty Images
