The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud/Value Pick
Ranger Suarez (L) $8,800 Boston Red Sox (-182) vs. Chicago White Sox
While he’s not a bad pitcher, Ranger Suarez projecting as by far the best pitching option on the slate says a lot about the quality of options we have on Thursday evening. The Red Sox lefty has been solid this year, with a 3.15 ERA and strikeout rate in the mid-20s – both solid marks, but ones that have added up to just a 16.3 DraftKings points-per-game average.
Suarez is the only starter on the slate whose opponent is implied for less than four runs, as the White Sox are checking in at 3.9 runs. Boston is also the slate’s heaviest favorite, and with the general lack of projectable pitching scoring, the four-point win bonus is especially crucial from your starters. Suarez is, by definition, the most likely starter to earn it.
The matchup is less than ideal, with the White Sox a top-ten team by wRC+ against left-handed pitching. However, they also strike out at a high rate (24.7%, 8th-most in baseball), which gives Suarez a somewhat wide range of outcomes. On a better pitching slate, that would make him tournament-only, but on today’s thin offering, I’m not sure how you could fade him in cash games.
Suarez leads all pitchers tonight in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections, though he’ll also have massive ownership.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Michael Wacha (R) $8,500 Kansas City Royals (-122) vs. Minnesota Twins
The next strongest option after Suarez is Michael Wacha, who has a similar mid-3.00 ERA but a considerably lower strikeout rate. Like Suarez, he’s also facing a top-ten offense by wRC+, but the Twins don’t strike out nearly as much. That considerably lowers Wacha’s upside, but he’s a relatively safe option overall and should be considerably less owned than Suarez – which alone makes him interesting for tournaments.
Martin Perez (L) $7,600 Atlanta Braves (-145) vs. Miami Marlins
Perez ranks second in both opponent implied total and moneyline odds today, giving him a solid shot at earning the crucial win bonus. The opposing Marlins are a below-average team against lefties with an above-average strikeout rate, making this a slightly plus matchup as well. Unfortunately, Perez isn’t very good – though he’s been lucky, with a 3.24 ERA and ERA predictors in the mid-fours. If his luck holds for another start, he could end up as the highest-scoring pitcher on a thin slate.
Walker Buehler (R) $7,000 San Diego Padres (-107) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The case for Buehler is mostly matchup- and salary-based, as he’s facing Arizona, the 29th-ranked team by wRC+ against right-handed pitching. The issue is Buehler also isn’t very good, with an ERA over 5.00 and 20.2% strikeout rate. On the plus side, his ERA predictors are virtually identical to Perez’s, and he’s $600 cheaper with a better matchup, all while projecting for low ownership on a small slate. That makes him worth a flier.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
Boston is far too cheap tonight for the team with the highest implied total on the slate. Unfortunately, that savings isn’t really relevant, since it’s hard to spend that salary anywhere else.
An interesting way to handle that in tournaments could be intentionally leaving salary on the table. With just five games – and a few pitchers likely to garner most of the ownership – building unique lineups is critical for tournaments, but most of the field will still likely spend close to the entire $50,000 salary cap.
The Red Sox will enjoy some solid hitting weather that boosts scoring more than 20% over Fenway Park’s already solid average. They also have a great matchup against Luis Castillo ($7,300), who has an ERA over five and a 43% fly ball rate. The latter is well above average and is especially impactful with warm weather, winds blowing out, and the small dimensions and Green Monster at Fenway.
Pivoting to alternate Boston stacks that squeeze in more lefties is also an option for those trying to get unique, since Castillo’s wOBA against lefties is more than 100 points higher than against righties. The obvious swap is Rafaela for Jarren Duran ($3,800) based on the current projected lineup, but it wouldn’t shock me if Boston swapped in another left-handed hitter in this matchup, so check back after lineups post.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Miguel Vargas 3B ($5,100) Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox (Ranger Suarez)
The real galaxy-brain contrarian option tonight is to roster or stack White Sox hitters against Suarez. Chicago has plenty of hitters with great numbers against lefties, and Suarez’s massive ownership means very little rostering on Chicago hitters – plus, they’ll enjoy the same park and weather benefit that Boston is getting.
Miguel Vargas is my favorite option since he fits neatly around Boston stacks, as well as jumping out in PlateIQ against lefties:
The entire middle of the White Sox order has great numbers, though, so we’ve got plenty of potential choices here.
Bobby Witt Jr. SS ($5,800) Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins (Bailey Ober)
Witt is firmly in the category of hitters where there’s never a bad time to play him. Today is an especially good time, though – not because of the matchup, but because of the generally loose salary structure on Thursday evening, though Bailey Ober ($7,900) and his 4.45 ERA certainly doesn’t hurt.
It’s not hard to find the salary for Witt, and he leads all hitters in median and ceiling projection. He’s hitting .281 on the season with 13 home runs and 30 steals, giving him an elite mix of ceiling and floor, all while batting leadoff for a team with a 4.8-run total. Plus, he doesn’t block any Boston hitters we’re prioritizing, so there’s no real reason not to fit him in.
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Pictured: Ranger Suarez
Photo Credit: Imagn
