NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Dec. 10): Pay up for Nikola Jokic?

Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

D’Angelo Russell continues to deliver excellent value for the Timberwolves. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in eight straight games, and he’s scored at least 40.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four. He’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns, increasing his usage rate by +3.5% in games without the stud big man.

Russell’s matchup also stands out as a good one. He’s taking on the Blazers, who rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency, and this matchup features a 231.0-point total. Russell is a particularly strong option on FanDuel, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.

---

Value

Mike Conley returned to the Jazz’s lineup on Friday, but it appears as though the team is going to bring him along slowly. He came off the bench in his first game back and played just 24.5 minutes.

With Collin Sexton currently sidelined, that allowed Nickeil Alexander-Walker to move into the starting lineup. NAW is a favorite for DFS players due to his solid per-minute contributions. He’s never met a shot that he didn’t like, and he’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season.

NAW is currently projected for just under 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and it’s tough to pass that up at $3,100 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.08 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

---

Fast Break

The Wizards’ injury report is going to be important to monitor on Saturday. Bradley Beal remains out of the lineup, but Will Barton’s status is still to be determined. If he’s ruled out, Jordan Goodwin should see a boost in value. He thrived with Barton out of the lineup on Friday, racking up 39.0 DraftKings points in 33.8 minutes. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of an increased workload.

Kyrie Irving has started to get rolling for the Nets. He’s scored at least 42.5 FanDuel points in four of his past five games, and he’s coming off more than 39 minutes on Friday. There’s a chance that Kevin Durant could rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, and Irving would vault to the top of the point guard rankings in that scenario. He’s increased his usage rate by +7.9% with Durant off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.34 FanDuel points per minute.

Editor’s Note — Irving, Durant, Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Nic Claxton, Joe Harris, Royce O’Neale, and T.J. Warren have all been ruled out vs. the Pacers. That leaves the team extremely thin, so the rest of the roster is enticing vs. the Pacers. David Duke Jr., Cam Thomas, Patty Mills, and Edmond Sumner stand out as their top options, but make sure to check out our NBA Models for the full updated projections.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Celtics’ offense has been dominant this season, and they’re on pace for the greatest offensive efficiency since at least 1973-74. Jayson Tatum has gotten most of the attention for the Celtics, but Jaylen Brown has also had a fantastic year. He’s averaged a career-best 26.7 points per game while shooting an efficient 49.8% from the field.

Brown has been even better of late, increasing his fantasy production to 1.33 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s the top mark at shooting guard on Saturday’s DraftKings slate. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.53 over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 41.25 DraftKings points in seven of his past eight. He also leads the position with nine Pro Trends, and he draws a solid matchup vs. the Warriors.

---

Value

Nuggets head coach Mike Malone recently committed to giving Bones Hyland more minutes, and that should be music to DFS player’s ears. Hyland is an elite per-minute producer, averaging 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s racked up at least 25.3 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s scored at least 28.25 DraftKings points in both contests, and he’s simply too cheap if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time.

---

Fast Break

Bennedict Mathurin has cooled down a bit after a torrid start to the year, but the talented rookie has dipped to just $5,200 on FanDuel. That makes him a nice buy-low option vs. the Nets. He’s currently projected for around 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute this season.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards is coming off a poor performance in his last outing, finishing with just 32.2 FanDuel points in 34.4 minutes. That snapped a streak of six straight games with a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and he’s put up some massive totals in that time frame. He scored 59.6 FanDuel points two games ago, and he had 63.1 FanDuel points two games before that. Overall, Edwards has increased his production to 1.18 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he should continue to thrive with KAT out of the lineup. Edwards is an excellent option on FanDuel, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.

---

Value

Deni Avdija has had some excellent showings for the shorthanded Wizards of late. He’s scored at least 32.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s played at least 38.8 minutes in both contests. He’s averaged a strong 0.84 DraftKings points per minute with Beal and Barton off the floor this season, so he would be an excellent option if Barton is sidelined again.

---

Fast Break

Kawhi Leonard is not listed on the Clippers’ injury report, so he should return to the lineup following a one-game absence. Leonard eclipsed 30 minutes the last time he suited up, and he’s priced at just $5,800 on FanDuel. Leonard’s price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he can definitely pay off that price tag with a comparable workload on Saturday.

Donovan Mitchell is another player who was out on Friday, and his status for Saturday is also TBD. Caris LeVert started in his absence, and he racked up 38.5 DraftKings points in 36.6 minutes. He would become one of the best values of the day if Mitchell is ruled out for the second straight game.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

With Beal out of the lineup, Kyle Kuzma is going to have to do some additional lifting for the Wizards’ offense. He’s seen a team-high +3.4% usage bump with Beal off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. He racked up 46.75 DraftKings points in 35.6 minutes on Friday, so he clearly has the potential to pay off his current salary. Kuzma’s matchup vs. the Clippers isn’t the best on paper – the Wizards’ implied team total of 107.5 is the lowest on the slate – but he does own an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.81.

---

Value

Kyle Anderson stands out as one of the best values at the position on FanDuel. He’s started three of the past four games for the Timberwolves, and he’s scored at least 34.7 FanDuel points in each. Anderson has always been an excellent per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He should continue to see more than 30 minutes with Towns sidelined, so he’s an excellent option at just $5,100.

---

Fast Break

Kristaps Porzingis was questionable on Friday, but he was able to suit up and finished with 44.8 FanDuel points in 34.7 minutes. He’s now posted a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 51.3 FanDuel points in four of them. He’s increased his usage rate to 29.9% during that stretch, and he’s averaged 1.36 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He provides an elite ceiling at a reasonable price tag, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.

Aleksej Pokusevski has one of the widest ranges of outcomes every time he takes the floor. He’s an outstanding per-minute producer, but his playing time is extremely volatile for a Thunder squad that changes their starting lineup basically every half. That will keep his ownership low, but not many players in his price range have a comparable ceiling.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

If you can afford him, paying up for Nikola Jokic is almost always a good idea. He didn’t get off to the greatest start this season, but he’s back to playing like the two-time MVP. He’s scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in eight of his past nine games, and no one on the slate can touch his average of 1.64 DraftKings points per minute. Jokic is expensive, but his ceiling projection is at least 12 points higher than every other player’s.

---

Value

Daniel Gafford isn’t expected to see a ton of playing time on Saturday, but that doesn’t really matter on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s increased his production to 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That gives him the potential to pay off his salary in limited playing time, making him the best pure value at the position from a per-dollar perspective.

---

Fast Break

Jarrett Allen wasted little time making an impact in his return to the lineup, scoring 47.75 DraftKings points in his first game following an extended injury absence. Unfortunately, he came crashing back to reality in the second, finishing with just 22.0 DraftKings points. He’s a nice bounce-back candidate vs. the Thunder given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.94.