The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Los Angeles Lakers – $10,200 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Leading the slate with the highest projected ceiling in our NBA Models is Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He is coming off another huge performance with 37 points, seven assists, six rebounds, and three steals in a 12-point victory over the Magic. However, Gilgeous-Alexander seemingly picked up a minor injury in that game and is questionable to play tonight. Keep an eye on his status throughout the day, but it would be shocking if he missed this game.
The Thunder have won nine of their last 11 games but are one-point road underdogs against the Lakers tonight. Gilgeous-Alexander has been very efficient in his two meetings with the Lakers this season, averaging 33.5 points and seven assists, while shooting 59% from the field and 95% from the charity stripe. He leads the slate with the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and is second on FanDuel.
Make sure he suits up, but Gilgeous-Alexander is the best pay-up option tonight.
Top Value: Dennis Smith Jr. vs. Miami Heat – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Dennis Smith Jr. is starting to find his groove in his first year with the Nets. He has recorded a double-double in two of his last three games, one of which was a near triple-double. His peripherals have been incredible lately, but Smith Jr. is still a boom-or-bust fantasy producer. Due to his cheap salary, He is currently projected for the highest ownership on DraftKings and the sixth-highest on FanDuel. Smith Jr. is still risky for cash games, but his price tag is impossible to ignore.
Part of the risk with Smith Jr. is not only his inconsistent play but this difficult matchup against the Miami Heat. This game features the lowest total on the slate at 220.5 points. The Heat play at the second-slowest pace in the league and have a top-10 defensive rating. However, value is a little tough to come by on this five-game slate, and Smith Jr. has proven his upside.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Chicago Bulls – $9,800 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Donovan Mitchell’s price tag must still be a sticker shock because he is projected for under 5% ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. That is even after his 45-point, 12-rebound performance against the Nets on Thursday night. Mitchell finished with a season-high 77 DraftKings points while shooting 15-for-30 from the field and carrying a 45.1% usage rate. With Darius Garland and Evan Mobley still out due to injury, Mitchell has a chance for a ceiling game every time he plays.
The Cavaliers have won four consecutive home games and are four-point home favorites against the Bulls tonight. Expect a slow-moving game, with the Bulls ranking dead last in pace at 96.71 and the Cavaliers not far behind. Even in a gross game environment, Mitchell deserves more ownership than he is getting.
He is a fantastic contrarian pay-up option on this slate.
Top Value: Bennedict Mathurin at Utah Jazz – $6,400 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
The Pacers have won two of their last three games without their star point guard Tyrese Haliburton, with their only loss coming on the road against the reigning NBA champs. Bennedict Mathurin is one of the players who have stepped up in Haliburton’s absence. His scoring is critical to keeping the Pacers competitive. With Haliburton off the floor this season, Mathurin has logged the most minutes on the team with 452 and has a +3.32% usage rate during that large sample size.
The Pacers are six-point road underdogs against the Jazz, who have won a league-high five-straight games. This matchup has a slate-high 245.5-point total, with the Pacers continuing to rank second in the league for pace. Prioritize Mathurin on FanDuel where his $5,700 salary is resulting in a 96% Bargain Rating. He is also projected for a slate-high 45% ownership.
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Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Toronto Raptors – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Jayson Tatum was ejected again last game but still managed to return value in his 30 minutes of play. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven of his last nine games. Tatum may get the luxury of playing without teammate Jaylen Brown, who is questionable with a knee injury. In the two games without Brown this season, Tatum is averaging 30.0 points, 8.0 assists, and 7.5 rebounds per game. He has attempted 27 field goal attempts per game with a 35.9% usage rate.
Despite the Celtics having an 11-9 road record, they are a slate-high 7.5-point road favorites against the Raptors, who have lost three straight games. Tatum is projected for around 10% ownership on both sites tonight, but that would drastically increase if Brown is ruled out.
Either way, Tatum has played great recently and is a consistent pay-up option for cash games.
Top Value: RJ Barrett vs. Boston Celtics – $6,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
On the opposite side of this matchup is RJ Barrett, who is a strong value in the midrange. Priced at $6,500 on both sites, Barrett has been playing great for his new team. In his seven games with the Raptors, Barrett has averaged 19.3 points and 6.9 rebounds per game while shooting 55.6% from the field and 50% from behind the arc. He has been even better recently, scoring 23+ points in three of his last four games. Despite the matchup, Barrett is simply too cheap for how well he is playing.
This is just the second home game for the Raptors since acquiring RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley from the Knicks. They beat the Cavaliers 124-121 in their previous game on New Year’s Day. Expect an electric atmosphere with the Celtics coming to town. Barrett’s usage rate is down with the Raptors compared to the Knicks, but his production is much higher.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Lauri Markkanen vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,400 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
A big reason why the Jazz have been red hot lately is Lauri Markkanen. During their five-game winning streak, Markkanen is averaging a double-double with 26.2 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. The big man is shooting 51.4% from the field and 50% from downtown with a 25% usage rate. He is averaging just under 50 DraftKings points per game and has a positive Plus/Minus in four of those five games. Priced under $9,000 across the industry, Markkanen is an excellent option.
Markkanen will benefit from an elite matchup against the Pacers frontcourt that is allowing a league-high 61 points per game in the paint this season. The Pacers also rank 23rd in rebounding percentage, which bodes well for the big man who has been a menace on the glass recently. This is a great opportunity for Markkanen to post yet another double-double tonight.
Top Value: Jalen Williams at Los Angeles Lakers – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
One of the biggest pricing discrepancies on the slate is Jalen Williams. While still being in play on FanDuel at $7,800, Williams looks much better on DraftKings at $6,900 with a 92% Bargain Rating. Williams is projected for the second-highest ownership on DraftKings at over 30%. He also has 10 Pro Trends on both sites and is averaging over 40 DraftKings points per game in his last six contests. His peripherals have been off the charts, with two double-doubles and a near triple-double.
In his second year in the league, Williams has increased his scoring to 18.2 points per game but has also been extremely efficient. He is shooting 54.3% from the field and 44.2% from long distance. His leap has been critical to the Thunder’s success this season. Prioritize Williams on DraftKings, where he is a cheap way to get exposure to the Thunder’s offense.
Center
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $10,500 DraftKings, $11,200 FanDuel
With power forward and center eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Anthony Davis has the second-highest projected ceiling across the industry. Davis is coming off just his second triple-double in his career with 15 points, 15 rebounds, and 11 assists in the Lakers loss to the Jazz. He shot an uncharacteristic 5-for-21 from the field but still managed to record over 60 DraftKings points. Davis has the ceiling to be in the optimal lineup and is drawing less than 10% ownership on both sites.
In his two games against the Thunder’s small frontcourt, Davis is averaging 28.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game while shooting 56.4% from the field. The Thunder have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, with a rebound percentage of 47.5%. This is a fantastic matchup for Davis, who is another stud worth getting exposure to at low ownership.
Top Value: Thaddeus Young vs. Boston Celtics – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
With Jakob Poeltl out for the Raptors, veteran Thaddeus Young has drawn a start in three straight games. Everyone from the Raptors had a terrible last game due to a 32-point blowout, but in his first two starts, Young averaged nine 9.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. He exceeded his salary-based expectations in both games and is projected to be one of the best values on the slate. Young is drawing the second-highest projected ownership on FanDuel at 40%.
Priced at $4,100 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is a salary saver to fit in the studs on this slate that are in great spots. The matchup against the Celtics’ frontcourt isn’t ideal, but Young is projected to play around 23 minutes, which is more than enough time to pay off his salary. He has proven to be capable of filling up the stat sheet in a variety of ways thus far.
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