NBA DFS Picks Breakdown on DraftKings (Thursday, April 23)

The NBA Playoffs are off to a strong start, with all of the first-round series entering Game 3. The Cavs, Thunder, and Lakers are the only teams up 2-0, with the rest of the series all tied at 1-1. On Thursday night, we get a trio of Game 3s as the Hawks host the Knicks, the Raptors look to climb back into their series against the Cavs, and the Nuggets visit the Timberwolves. The slate tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET, so let’s dive in and see who our NBA Models point to as good options to build DFS fantasy basketball lineups around for this Thursday on DraftKings.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

In the FantasyLabs projections, Jamal Murray has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at point guard, and he has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection at the position as well, indicating he’s a strong value for his price point just under $9,000.

Murray had 45.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 52.25 DraftKings points in Game 2, scoring exactly 30 points in each contest and adding strong rebound and assist numbers as well. Murray helped the Nuggets finish the season strong and surge to the No. 3 seed in the West with strong play down the stretch, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 13 games overall.

As a proven playoff contributor, Murray has a high ceiling and floor as the Nuggets go on the road for a pivotal Game 3 in Minneapolis. If you’re spending up on a point guard, he stands out as a strong play due to his consistency and multi-category upside.

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Value

After a huge Game 2 at Madison Square Garden, Hawks point guard CJ McCollum has the highest Plus/Minus projection of any point guard on the slate.

Since joining the Hawks midseason as part of the trade that sent Trae Young to Washington, McCollum has come up huge for his new team. He finished the season on a roll, averaging 35.8 DraftKings points per game over his last 15 games, dating back to mid-March.

He had 32.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 on 26 points but just one assist. In Game 2, he had six assists and two steals to go with his 32 points, finishing with 51.25 DraftKings points. He has that kind of high ceiling in Game 3 as the Hawks try to take control at home. Since he has stepped into such a meaningful role and is a proven playoff performer, he brings a high floor as well.

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Fast Break

For the Knicks, Jalen Brunson always carries the load and has a high ceiling. He had 47.25 and 42.5 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series and hasn’t had a “takeover” performance yet. The Hawks’ defense is keying on shutting him down and forcing other Knicks to beat them, but Brunson still has the potential to go off.

As a midrange play, Donte DiVincenzo brought great value in Game 2, dropping 36.75 DraftKings points on 16 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and a steal. He is more volatile than the high-priced option since his role fluctuates, but he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on Thursday, indicating he’s a great value to consider.

For a bargain play at point guard, Bruce Brown has the best Plus/Minus projection of the options under $5,000. He had 31.25 DraftKings points in Game 1, highlighted by five steals, but he cooled off in Game 2, with just 14.25 DraftKings points. He is getting enough minutes to be a solid bargain option, though.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

When breaking down a slate, it can be helpful to have a second perspective, and one way to get that is by adding the ShotQuality projections to your models. In the ShotQuality projections, Anthony Edwards has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard, edging out Donovan Mitchell for the top spot. Edwards also has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard, behind only McCollum.

Edwards was banged up coming into the playoffs, but he didn’t show any signs of injury in the first two games of the series. He had 49.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 on 22 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists in 38 minutes. It was his heaviest workload since March 1, but he was ready to go for Game 2, dropping 30 points, 10 rebounds, and 53.5 DraftKings points as the Timberwolves pulled out the five-point win.

Coming home should set up well for Edwards, but he is officially listed as questionable with “right knee injury maintenance.” As long as he sheds that tag and plays as expected, he’ll be a solid spend-up play at shooting guard with a chance to post another big number in Game 3.

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Value

To help save some salary, Tim Hardaway Jr. makes sense to consider on the wing at either shooting guard or small forward. He’s only $4,000 and has the third-highest Plus/Minus projection at shooting guard in the FantasyLabs projections and the fourth-highest in the ShotQuality projections.

Hardaway Jr. brings spike scoring potential if his shot gets going from long range. He played 24 minutes in Game 1 and had 15.75 DraftKings points, and he was even better in Game 2, scoring 16 points in 27 minutes for 23.2 DraftKings points.

As has been true throughout the season, Hardaway offers nice shooting in the second unit but doesn’t provide much in non-scoring categories. While his upside is limited as a result, he does still have enough scoring potential to be worth a look as a value play if you opt to go cheap at a spot to spend up on other options.

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Fast Break

Donovan Mitchell has scored 32 and 30 points in the Cavs’ two wins to start the series. With James Harden alongside, he shares the workload a little more than he has in previous playoff runs, but the scoring is definitely still there, and he is a strong play to build around at shooting guard. Edwards offers a touch more non-scoring production, which is why he’s a better play if he’s healthy. Mitchell is a safe option to consider, though, if Edwards’ injury makes him too high-risk for your lineup.

While both Hardaway and Brown have made solid contributions, Christian Braun is still getting plenty of work for the Nuggets as well. He had 24.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 31.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. He has a top-six Plus/Minus projection at the position in both sets of projections for Game 3.

Another affordable wing with upside is Max Strus of the Cavs. The playoff veteran had 24 points and 28.75 DraftKings points in Game 1, but cooled off with 14.75 DraftKings points in Game 2. He’ll be a boom-or-bust play in Game 3, but he’s getting enough minutes to be a solid bargain to consider at just over $4,000.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

In the ShotQuality projections, Dyson Daniels has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at small forward, and he also has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position.

He’s taken a slightly smaller role on offense with McCollum’s emergence and his focus on limiting Brunson. He did have 11 assists, nine rebounds, and 36.75 DraftKings points in Game 1, and chipped in 20 DraftKings points in Game 2.

Daniels can stuff the stat sheet when he’s at his best, and he finished the regular season with a triple-double that earned him over 50 DraftKings points. That was in his most recent home game, and for the season, he averaged 35.5 DraftKings points in his 37 home games.

Small forward doesn’t have as many big names as other spots, but Daniels brings a high enough ceiling to be the top pay-up play at the position.

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Value

Daniels’ teammate, Jonathan Kuminga, has the highest Plus/Minus projection of the small forward options under $5,500 in both sets of projections. If you’re spending up on big names in other spots and going cheaper at small forward, he can be a solid alternative.

Kuminga had only eight points and 14.5 DraftKings points in Game 1, but he played a key role in Game 2’s win with 19 points and 31.5 DraftKings points in 35 minutes.

Since arriving from Golden State, Kuminga has shown the ability to take over games and score piles of points, but his role fluctuates from game to game. He had over 25 DraftKings points in three of his last four contests dating back to the regular season, though, so he has a good chance of being a strong value under $5,000.

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Fast Break

In the FantasyLabs projections, Jaden McDaniels has the highest Plus/Minus projections at small forward. He had 30 DraftKings points in Game 1 for Minnesota but only 19.5 DraftKings points in Game 2, when Edwards picked up more of the non-scoring numbers. He brings good upside in his complementary role.

The Raptors’ R.J. Barrett is the other top option at small forward, along with Daniels and McDaniels. He bounced back from a quiet Game 1 with 38.75 DraftKings points in Game 2, adding nine rebounds and five assists to his 22 points. As the series shifts to Toronto, the FantasyLabs projections give him the highest ceiling projection of all small forwards.

Hardaway and Strus both have small forward eligibility as cheap options, or you could consider Jaylon Tyson, who had some huge games filling in for the Cavs earlier this season but has had a quiet first two games of this series since his role has been slightly smaller. Tyson has one of the best Plus/Minus projections of players under $4,000 on the board.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The ShotQuality projections give Jalen Johnson the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward, while the FantasyLabs projections give Karl-Anthony Towns a slightly higher median projection. Both sets of projections give Towns a much better Projected Plus/Minus since he is almost $1,000 cheaper.

If you need to save salary to spend on other spots, Towns is probably the better option, although Johnson’s ceiling is extremely high. Towns has been just short of a double-double in each of the first two games of this series and also picked up multiple blocks to boost his production even higher.

In Game 1, KAT had 25 points and 48 DraftKings points, and in Game 2, he had 18 points and 34.5 DraftKings points. He’s crucial to the Knicks’ playoff hopes and will need to step up on the glass in this matchup on Thursday night. Both he and Johnson bring lots of upside, but the savings with Towns are worth considering since he brings the potential to go off in any contest.

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Value

In both sets of projections, Naz Reid has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward and center.

Reid has been a key contributor off the bench for the Timberwolves for the past few seasons, and he will need to be very involved in Game 3 if Minnesota is able to take the series lead. He had only five points and three boards for 13.25 DraftKings points in a disappointing Game 1, but he bounced back with 11 points and nine rebounds for 24.25 DraftKings points in Game 2.

He can be a streaky scorer, so hopefully Game 2 jumpstarts his offense moving forward. Because his scoring trailed off a bit towards the end of the season, he’s only $4,600, making him one of the best bargains available on Thursday night’s slate.

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Fast Break

Jalen Johnson can dominate and put up huge numbers, as he did all season, but he only had 37.25 and 32 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series, which is why KAT is a better value option. If you have the salary, though, he could end up being a pay-up pivot if his ownership is low, as projected.

Especially if Immanuel Quickley (hamstring) misses another game, Scottie Barnes will continue to do the heavy lifting for the Raptors. He had 21 points and 31.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 and followed that with 43 DraftKings points in Game 2. If Quickley returns, Barnes could slide back to his forward spot more, allowing more rebounds after he only totaled five boards in the first two games of this series combined. He’s at his best when stuffing multiple categories in the box score.

As a bargain option, Collin Murray-Boyles is only $4,300 for the Raptors, but the rookie has continued to get significant playing time. He averaged 21.0 DraftKings points per game this season and produced 24.5 and 30.75 DraftKings points in the first two games of this series. He’s a strong play under $4,500 either at forward or center, depending on your roster construction.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the entire slate in both sets of projections and is the most expensive play on the slate by a wide margin at $12,700.

He had 62.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 57.25 DraftKings points in Game 2. His triple-double in Game 1 led his team to victory, but he came up two assists short in Game 2, and the Nuggets lost by five points.

Jokic has been a dominant force down the stretch and in the playoffs, posting massive games almost every night. The only question is if his salary can work under your cap space since he comes with such a hefty cost. The questions about Jokic builds are more about the rest of the roster you can build around him than his elite production, which is almost a given at this point.

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Value

While Reid has the highest Plus/Minus projection at center, Aaron Gordon is just behind him with the second-highest Plus/Minus projection in the FantasyLabs projections.

Gordon is officially probable as he deals with left calf tightness, but as long as he plays through the issue, he’ll be a key complementary producer for the Nuggets. He had 31.5 DraftKings points in Game 1 and 23.2 DraftKings points in Game 2. He actually played more minutes in Game 2, logging 37 minutes in his team’s defeat.

If he gets over 35 minutes again on Thursday, he’ll have a great chance to return value at only $6,000, and he also has a high ceiling with the potential to go off for a huge game at some point in the series.

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Fast Break

With Mitchell and Harden as the focus of the offense, Evan Mobley has been solid with 31.25 and 40 DraftKings points in the first two games of the series for the Cavs. He probably won’t get a huge bump in usage as the series shifts to Toronto, so his ceiling isn’t quite as high as the stars like Jokic, but he remains a very solid play.

Rudy Gobert is another solid, steady contributor on most slates. He did struggle in Game 2, though, with only 15.25 DraftKings points on two points. He’ll be looking for a bounce-back performance coming home.

If you’re looking for a bargain center, the Raptors have two good options in Murray-Boyles (discussed above) and Sandro Mamukelashvili. Mamu had 12 points and 10 rebounds for 30.5 DraftKings points in 20 minutes in Game 2. Both players have potential production off the bench. Mamukelashvili has slightly better Plus/Minus projections, but Murray-Boyles has the added versatility of power forward eligibility.

Pictured: Anthony Edwards
Photo Credit: Imagn