The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Miami Heat – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel
With Luka Doncic and Ja Morant dealing with injuries and priced to the top of the salary structure, this looks like a good spot to target Haliburton at just under $10,000. Haliburton has the second-highest ceiling projection at point guard on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings coming into what should be a good matchup against Miami.
His Opponent Plus/Minus is +2.06 on DraftKings, the highest mark for any point guard over $8,000. On FanDuel, the matchup is even better since he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.98, which is the third-highest of all the point guards on the slate.
Haliburton and the Pacers lost a close game to the Nets on Saturday, despite Haliburton shooting an impressive 12-of-15 from the field on his way to 35 points, nine assists, three steals, 58.75 DraftKings points, and 56.7 FanDuel points. In his three games since returning from a groin injury, Haliburton has averaged 28 points, 11.7 assists, 2.0 steals, and 54.25 DraftKings points while shooting 69.8% from the field with a 23.2% usage rate.
His slightly lower salary gives him the best Projected Plus/Minus of all the top-tier point guards on this slate, and his recent form shows he can go off for a monster total. On this seven-game slate, he’s a great way to get elite production at a lower salary.
Top Value: Marcus Smart at Los Angeles Clippers – $6,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Smart and the Celtics will look to bounce back from losing to the Warriors as they stay on the West Coast and visit the Clippers on Monday. Smart has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of any point guard on FanDuel and the fourth-highest at the position on DraftKings. His matchup is also a good one, giving him a strong Opponent Plus/Minus.
Smart shot just 4-of-12 Saturday but still managed 38.3 FanDuel points and 35.5 DraftKings points on 13 points, five assists, three steals, and two blocks. His defensive production gives him a bit of a boost on FanDuel, where those stats are more rewarded, but he’s a solid play on either site. He has over 31 DraftKings points and over 29 FanDuel points in five of his past six games, with multiple steals in five of those six games as well. He fell just one assist short of a double-double in two of those contests while producing a double-double with 22 points, 15 assists, and 54 DraftKings points to start that run of success in a rout of the Hornets.
While he isn’t usually the most efficient scorer, he does produce across multiple categories enough to make him a good value play at just over $6K on this slate.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards at Portland Trail Blazers – $9,400 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
Edwards has been carrying more of the offense for Minnesota with Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) sidelined and should be in a good spot in the late game against the Trail Blazers. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on DraftKings and the fourth-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on FanDuel. The game environment should play in his favor since this matchup has the highest over/under on the slate by a wide margin.
The third-year player is currently pacing for career highs in points scored, minutes, assists, rebounds, steals, and fantasy points and is still just 21 years old. He has hit at least 43 DraftKings points and over 40 FanDuel points in five of his past six games while averaging 25.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 4.0 steals, and 4.5 rebounds per game. During that run, he has averaged 1.30 FanDuel points and 1.26 DraftKings points per minute.
On Saturday, in the first game of this two-game series in Portland, Edwards had 26 points, seven assists, six boards, and two steals for 48.5 DraftKings points and 46.7 FanDuel points. He will look to put up similar numbers on Monday in the rematch, making him a nice ceiling play at either shooting guard or small forward.
Top Value: Bogdan Bogdanovic at Memphis Grizzlies – $4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
On both DraftKings and FanDuel, Bogdanovic brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players on the entire slate on DraftKings, where he is under $5K.
Bogdanovic returned at just the right time for the Hawks, who are very shorthanded with Dejounte Murray (ankle) and John Collins (ankle) sidelined. Rookie A.J. Griffin was the hero with the game-winning shot against the Bulls on Sunday, but it was Bogdanovic who led the team with 28 points, seven rebounds, five assists, and 47.75 DraftKings points.
That’s back-to-back big games for Bogdan, who had 31 points and 42.5 DraftKings points on Friday in a loss to the Nets. As long as he doesn’t sit out the second game of the back-to-back to rest his knee, he’ll be a great play in a vital role against the Grizzlies on Monday.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Los Angeles Clippers – $11,100 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
Tatum has the highest ceiling projection at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Celtics superstar has emerged as a legit MVP candidate and has carried his team to a 21-6 start and the best record in the NBA, even after Saturday’s loss to the Warriors.
In that contest, Tatum had a bit of a down game by his lofty standards, finishing with “just” 37.75 DraftKings points and 39.4 FanDuel points on 18 points, seven rebounds, three steals, and two assists. He also had a bit of a down game statistically against the Suns in his previous game since he only had to play 29 minutes in a blowout. Before those two games, though, he was regularly dropping over 50 DraftKings points and even reached 76.25 DraftKings points earlier this month in a matchup with Miami.
Tatum should be poised to bounce back and help the Celtics get back in the green in this matchup with the Clippers.
Top Value: Deni Avdija vs. Brooklyn Nets – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
Avdija has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on DraftKings and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel. He’s also eligible at power forward on both sites, checking in at No. 1 in Projected Plus/Minus at that spot on DraftKings and No. 3 on FanDuel.
In his three most recent games, Avdija has played more than 38 minutes in each contest. He has hit double-digit points in each of those games and contributed decent numbers in the peripheral categories, resulting in over 30 DraftKings points in each game. He had 11 points, six boards, and six assists in 39 minutes on Saturday against the Clippers.
Avdija has outperformed salary expectations in nine of his past 10 games on FanDuel, including two ceiling games, and he has exceeded salary expectations in six of his past 10 games on DraftKings, including each of his past four contests.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler at Indiana Pacers – $8,600 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel
Butler has the third-highest ceiling projection at power forward on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The Heat have the fourth-highest Pace Differential on the slate in what should be a good matchup against the Pacers, who rank No. 4 in the NBA in pace. They also have the fifth-highest implied team total in what should be a high-scoring contest.
He’s listed as probable in this contest but has played in four of Miami’s past five games. He has at least 25 points in three of those four games and is coming off 30 points in Saturday’s loss to the Spurs. He was even better across the stat sheet on Thursday when he posted 26 points, eight assists, five rebounds, four steals, and 55 FanDuel points.
Butler will look to help the Heat bounce back from losing three of their last four games and should be in an excellent position to deliver a big game Monday.
Top Value:
Kyle Anderson at Portland Trail Blazers – $5,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Anderson has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on FanDuel and the third-highest at small forward on DraftKings. He and Avdija are similar in both projection and production style in that they log a lot of minutes and produce in multiple categories while not taking up a ton of usage.
Since the injury to Towns, Anderson has started four of the Wolves’ five games, including each of their last three. He has averaged 10.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.2 blocks in those games, with over 29 DraftKings points in all but one contest.
In his expanded role, he has outproduced salary expectations in eight of his past 10 games on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Center
Top Ceiling: Kristaps Porzingis vs. Brooklyn Nets – $9,500 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Porzingis has helped pick up the slack with Bradley Beal (hamstring) sidelined and has a 32.5% usage rate over his past four games dating back to the contest that Beal was forced to leave early. The Wizards have lost all four of those games, but Porzingis has done his part with performances of 27, 28, 29, and 30 points. He has also had at least nine rebounds in his past six games, resulting in three double-doubles to bring his season total to nine.
Over his past seven games, Porzingis has averaged 29.0 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.9 blocks, and 1.1 steals for 53.1 DraftKings points and 52.7 FanDuel points per contest.
The Nets have been one of the most generous teams in the NBA to opposing centers, so this is a smash spot for Porzingis.
Top Value: Onyeka Okongwu at Memphis Grizzlies – $3,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Especially on DraftKings, where he is still under $4K, Okongwu is an excellent value as the Hawks finish their back-to-back in Memphis. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all the centers on DraftKings and ranks fourth at the position on FanDuel.
Recently, Okongwu has been sharing time with Clint Capela almost evenly in the middle for the Hawks and has played at least 19 minutes in each of his past three games. He usually does a great job on the glass when he is on the floor and has averaged 6.8 boards per game over his past six contests.
On Sunday, he fell just one rebound short of a double-double with 14 points, nine rebounds, and a steal helping him to post 28.3 FanDuel points. He has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of his past 10 games.
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