After another awesome weekend stuffed with NBA Playoff action, Monday starts the new work week with a two-game set this Monday. The Cavaliers are in Miami in the first game of the double-header, looking to complete their sweep and move on to the next round. The Rockets and Warriors meet in the later game, with the Warriors currently leading that best-of-seven series 2-1.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
One of the exciting new features introduced this season on FantasyLabs has been our partnership with ShotQuality. The ShotQuality projections have Stephen Curry as clearly the top point guard stud on this slate. He has the top median, ceiling, and floor projections and the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well.
Curry could be playing a second straight game with Jimmy Butler (pelvic contusion), who is questionable after missing Game 3. With Butler out, Curry went off for 36 points to go with nine assists on his way to 65.75 DraftKings points.
In each of the first two games of the series, Curry had over 42 DraftKings points, but he gets more usage and takes his game to another level when Butler is off the floor. He also thrives at the Chase Center, where he feeds off the crowd.
If Butler is out, Curry is a must-play even though he’s pricey just because his ceiling is so high. If Butler plays, he’s still a strong option, although he’ll probably have a lighter workload in that scenario.
Value
Another key potential absence to watch on Monday’s slate is Darius Garland of the Cavs, who is questionable with a sprained toe. If he’s out, then Ty Jerome would be a high-risk, high-reward play as he steps into a larger role.
Jerome played 26 minutes in Game 1 and went off for 28 points and 41.25 DraftKings points in an outlier scoring performance. He showed it wasn’t just a one-team spike, though, by turning in 39.25 DraftKings points with a double-double of 13 points and 11 assists while playing 22 minutes in Game 3.
He only had 11.75 DraftKings points in Game 2 and wasn’t able to find consistency during the regular season, but he has been impressive enough in the playoffs to be a good value to consider if Garland is out for a second straight game.
Fast Break
Tyler Herro has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in the ShotQuality projections. His salary is still under $8,000, but he brings a very high ceiling since he’ll have to carry a huge workload as the Heat try to avoid elimination.
Brandin Podziemski bounced back from a scoreless Game 2, in which he was limited by illness, by scoring 10 points in 33 minutes in Game 3. He earned 20.5 DraftKings points and is a solid midrange alternative to Jerome. He has been much more consistent than Jerome over the course of the entire season.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
In the ShotQuality projections, Jalen Green has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and the second-highest floor, median, and ceiling projections at the position. His salary is much more affordable than Donovan Mitchell’s (discussed below), and he’ll have a huge workload as the Rockets try to level their series with the Warriors.
Green had a monster 38 points in the Rockets’ Game 2 victory, finishing with 61 DraftKings points in a ceiling performance. He struggled in Game 3 with just nine points but still added good non-scoring numbers to finish with 26.0 DraftKings points.
Green’s big Game 2 is the reason the Rockets have one win in this series, and he’ll look to help them get a second win with a similar showing on Monday night. He led the team with a 27.8% usage rate during the regular season, and in the playoffs, he has a 24.8% usage rate while producing 1.02 DraftKings points per minute.
While he is high risk, his upside makes him a strong option with his salary under $7,000.
Value
In the backcourt, Davion Mitchell continues to be one of the most reliable and consistent midrange players in the postseason. Miami’s trade deadline acquisition has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position in the FantasyLabs projections and the third-highest in the ShotQuality projections. At shooting guard, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in the ShotQuality projections.
Mitchell has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the three games in this series, each of the two games in the Play-in Tournament, and 18 of his last 19 games dating back to the regular season. He has scored at least 15 points in each of his five postseason contests and has had 30+ DraftKings points in each game of this series.
Since arriving from Toronto, Mitchell has become a key part of the Heat’s rotation and stepped up as a key contributor on both ends of the floor. He’s a solid fantasy play on this small slate as the Heat look to win and stay alive in the playoffs.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all shooting guards, but he also has the highest salary by a wide margin. Even without Darius Garland in Game 3, he only had 13 points and 18 DraftKings points. The fact that the Cavs won by almost 40 points without Garland and with a down game from Spida shows how deep and productive the rest of their roster can be. Mitchell had exactly 30 points and 50+ DraftKings points in each of the first two games of the series and should bounce back with a better fantasy game in Game 4.
Max Strus helped pick up some of the slack in Game 3, finishing with 18 points and 38.75 DraftKings points. He also exceeded salary-based expectations in Game 2 with 29.75 DraftKings points. With a chance to eliminate his former team, he’s a solid cheap play on the wing with eligibility at both shooting guard and small forward.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
On this limited slate, small forward is a tricky spot if Butler misses a second straight game. Andrew Wiggins and Amen Thompson are the two alternatives with salaries over $5,000, and both have been underwhelming in the postseason so far. Wiggins has the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position in both sets of projections coming into the day, and he’s the better option since he also saves some salary.
Wiggins has scored double-digit points in each of his three playoff games but hasn’t turned in many non-scoring numbers. He had 20 points in each of the two wins in the Play-in Tournament, producing 44.25 and 41 DraftKings points, but he has struggled in this matchup, making just 3-of-10 field goal attempts in each of the last two games.
He needs to bounce back for the Heat on Monday night, and he’ll be a great fantasy option at the position if he can get back to the production he showed when he arrived from Golden State in the Butler trade. While Thompson also has plenty of potential, he is playing a reduced role for Houston and hasn’t been able to shine like he did earlier in the regular season. Of the two, Wiggins is the safer play on Monday.
Value
If you pass on both of those options at the top of the salary structure, one alternative is to go extremely cheap. The Warriors have two small forward options that make sense under $4,000 in Gary Payton II and Moses Moody. Payton has a slightly higher Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections, but Moody is a little safer since his role is more established. Both players get a big boost if Butler is out again, but if Butler returns, they’ll be at much higher risk.
Moody had 12 points and 21 DraftKings points in 24 minutes in Game 2 and then had 14.25 DraftKings points on seven points in 23 minutes in Game 3. He has been a solid complementary piece in the starting lineup for the Warriors and brings three-point potential if the Rockets focus on limiting Steph as much as possible.
Payton stepped up in a huge way in Game 3, playing through a questionable tag due to a shoulder injury but playing 21 minutes, scoring 16 points, and finishing with 22.25 DraftKings points. It was a huge improvement for Payton after he played 12 scoreless minutes in Game 2 and only had 4.25 DraftKings points. When he plays around 20 minutes, he almost always gets enough non-scoring stats to be a good value play, and if Butler is out, there should be enough work for him to be a nice punt value at the position.
Fast Break
If Butler does play, he brings an extremely high ceiling that he showed off in Game 1 with a “Playoff Jimmy” style 52.75 DraftKings points against the Rockets. He was hurt in Game 2 and missed Game 3, so he’ll be a high-risk, high-reward option even if he’s cleared to play Monday.
In the other game, Strus is a solid option to consider at small forward as well, or you could turn to Haywood Highsmith, who has helped fill in for Wiggins’ struggles. Highsmith didn’t get much going in Game 3, but in Game 2, he had 17 points and 23 DraftKings points to show he does have the potential to produce a good return at his salary under $4,000.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
In both sets of projections, Bam Adebayo has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward for Monday, along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. Even though the Heat have lost all three games in the series, Bam has been excellent for fantasy. His massive workload gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling in Game 4.
In Game 1, he had 24 points, nine rebounds, and 45.75 DraftKings points in 39 minutes, falling one rebound short of a double-double. His scoring dropped in Game 2, but he had 14 rebounds and nine assists to go with 11 points to earn 45 DraftKings points while falling one assist short of a triple-double. He was just one rebound short of a double-double in Game 3 as well, totaling 33.75 DraftKings points in 40 minutes on 22 points and nine rebounds.
He and Davion Mitchell have been the only reliable contributors for Miami, and he’ll have to come through with another big game on Monday to keep the Heat’s season alive.
Value
Jabari Smith Jr. has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward in the ShotQuality projections and the third-highest in the FantasyLabs projections.
Smith bounced back from a rough Game 2 with 12 points, five rebounds, and 23.25 DraftKings points in Game 3, exceeding salary-based expectations for the fifth time in his last seven contests. He has played right around 25 minutes per game off the bench in each of the first three games of this series, and he brings scoring potential to Houston’s second unit and contributes solid non-scoring numbers when he’s at his best.
Smith has a very high ceiling at his salary of just $4,500, but the Rockets’ rotation and usage in the first three games of this series have been unsteady, so he has a low floor since his role while he’s on the floor continues to fluctuate.
Fast Break
The Cavs have gotten 19 and 20 points from Evan Mobley in the last two games, but he has been able to take it easy a little bit since the Heat haven’t been able to keep the games close. He has the potential to go off, but he hasn’t been a great fantasy option so far this series since the Cavs haven’t needed him to do too much.
Dillon Brooks has scored double-digit points in each of the three games in this series, posting over 20 DraftKings points in each game. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the last two games of the series, with his best game on Saturday, when he had 26.5 DraftKings points in 28 minutes.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
While Bam Adebayo tops the projections at center as well as power forward, Jarrett Allen has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position and has put together a solid series for the Cavs.
His salary is just over $6,000 in this contest, but he’s a strong play at that price since he posted 35+ DraftKings points in two of the three games in this series. He had a 12-point, 11-rebound double-double for 35.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 and another double-double of 22 points and 10 rebounds in Game 3 to post 37 DraftKings points. Even in his one game without a double-double, he still came close with nine points and eight rebounds.
Allen has been very consistent for the Cavs this season and has carried that over into the postseason. He could get a little more work on Monday as the offense focuses more on the frontcourt if Garland misses a second straight game.
Value
The Heat have quickly re-incorporated Nikola Jovic into their rotation. The big man missed almost two months with a fractured right hand before returning in Game 1 of this series.
He played just one minute in that contest but played 25 minutes in Game 2, producing an impressive 11 points, eight rebounds, and 23.5 DraftKings points. In Game 3, he stayed very involved and played 19 minutes but he only managed to go 1-for-7 from the field and finish with 11.75 DraftKings points.
Even though he didn’t deliver another big game in Game 3, it’s a great sign that he got so much playing time and opportunities. He has a very high ceiling as a cheap power forward or center play to round out your lineups this Monday.
Fast Break
Rockets center Alperen Sengun leads the team in usage in this series and has posted back-to-back double-doubles with 52 and 35.75 DraftKings points. He has a very high ceiling and high floor, but the problem is that he also has a very high salary compared to the other options on this slate. He’ll be a good source of pay-up leverage if you can afford it, but you’ll have to get creative with the other spots on your roster to fit his salary.
On the other side of that matchup, Quinten Post had 20 and 27 DraftKings points in the last two games and gets a little more work in the rotation if Butler is out. He’s a cheap play at only $4,000 that brings some upside.
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Pictured: Steph Curry
Photo Credit: Imagn
