The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic vs. New York Knicks – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel
After an extremely slow start on Christmas Day, Luka Doncic bounced back in the second half and narrowly finished with a triple-double as he had 32 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists for over 60 DraftKings points. Despite being double-teamed, Doncic still found a way to produce and lead a come-from-behind victory over the Lakers. Priced at $12,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Doncic is one of the best plays on the slate once again.
Over the last three games, Doncic has shot 50% or better from the field while almost averaging a triple-double. He is still averaging a career-high 32.8 points per game, while he ranks second in both scoring and usage rate this season. The Mavericks are five-point favorites, but this total is only 220 points, which ranks as the second-lowest on the slate. They also have the second-lowest Pace in the league.
Despite the low total, Doncic is still worth getting exposure to.
Top Value: Andrew Nembhard vs. Atlanta Hawks – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
The Pacers seem to finally be at full strength, but rookie Andrew Nembhard continues to start and play a valuable role in this offense. Nembhard is still a little too cheap across the industry, as he has one of the highest Projected Plus/Minus rates on both sites at the guard position. Playing alongside Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, and Buddy Hield does diminish his upside, but Nembhard can still stuff the stat sheet in a variety of ways.
This game between the Pacers and Hawks features one of the highest totals on the slate at 237.5 points. Each team ranks in the top seven of Pace this season while also ranking just outside the top 10 in Defensive Rating. There are a lot of similarities between these two teams, and this should be a track meet. Nembhard is a great way to get cheap exposure to this game since the pay-up options of Haliburton, Trae Young, and Dejounte Murray are expensive.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: James Harden at Washington Wizards – $9,700 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
The Philadelphia 76ers won seven-straight home games and then beat the Knicks on Christmas Day to make it eight consecutive victories. They look to continue the streak on the road against the Wizards tonight as four-point favorites. James Harden has had back-to-back monster games averaging 24.5 points, 17 assists, and 69.4 DraftKings points per game. During that time, Harden also played over 40 minutes in each game.
76ers shooting guard Tyrese Maxey is expected back on Friday, so this could be the last game we see peak Harden in quite a while with the ball in his hands on every possession. Using our On/Off Tool, Harden has a +1.6% usage rate and a 47.8% assist rate with Maxey off the floor this season. Harden leads the league averaging 11.1 assists per game, so he is a near-lock for another double-double.
Get exposure to Harden tonight before Maxey comes back Friday.
Top Value: Duane Washington Jr. at Memphis Grizzlies – $3,000 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel
Priced at the stone minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Suns guard Duane Washington Jr. is a strong value for salary relief. In his first season with the Suns, it has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride for Washington Jr. He has been in and out of the rotation but has yet to reach 20 minutes in a game all season. However, since returning from injury, Washington Jr. has played in back-to-back games averaging 12 points and 22.1 DraftKings points per game.
The Suns continue to play without Devin Booker, Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet, and Cameron Johnson, which has allowed for extended playing time for Washington Jr. When he plays, Washington Jr. is extremely active. Despite only playing 15.5 minutes per game in his last two, he has averaged a 32.8% usage rate. Our Tournament Model has Washington Jr. projected for only 15.9 minutes, but that may be all he needs to pay off this cellar dweller’s salary.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Orlando Magic – $10,600 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Despite LeBron James going back into hero mode without Anthony Davis, the Lakers are struggling to capture victories as they have a 13-20 record this season. Over the last seven games, James has rewound the clock. He has scored 30 or more points and over 50 DraftKings points in each game while shooting a ridiculous 57.8% from the field. His perimeter jump shot still needs work, but James is getting to the rack and scoring with ease.
In six games without Davis this season, James is averaging nearly eight points and a 3% usage rate more per game. His salary continues to increase, especially on FanDuel, but James has a great matchup against the Magic, who rank 22nd in Defensive Rating. James may not get the peripherals like Doncic and Jokic, but he is a great pay-up option tonight.
Prioritize James on DraftKings, where he is $900 cheaper than FanDuel and has a 93% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Kenyon Martin Jr. at Boston Celtics – $4,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Despite not starting the last game, Kenyon Martin Jr. still was able to play 22 minutes and score double-digit points for the sixth time in his last eight games. During that stretch, he has shot 50% or better in every single game while capturing 4.6 rebounds per game. Martin Jr. has also displayed steal and assist upside and does have a game scoring over 30 DraftKings points in his last eight games.
The Rockets are the worst team in the Western Conference, which makes this a brutal matchup against the Celtics, who have the best record in the league. Being 14.5-point road underdogs should not be a surprise, as the Celtics rank top seven in Defensive Rating this season. However, they might be playing without Robert Williams, who is questionable with an illness.
Either way, Martin Jr. is a strong value play who will play regardless of a blowout.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Houston Rockets – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
On the flip side of the Celtics and Rockets game is MVP front-runner Jayson Tatum. The Celtics are the best team in the league, and Tatum has been one of the best players in the league. His salary continues to rise, but Tatum has scored over 60 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. Even though the Celtics are massive favorites in this game, Tatum can put up a massive game in 3.5 quarters. He has been that good this season.
The Rockets rank 28th in Defensive Rating (115.1), entering tonight’s games, while the Celtics lead the league in Offensive Rating. Both teams rank in the middle of the pack in Pace, so this game total hasn’t gotten too out of control.
However, if Williams is out for the Celtics, that is really going to boost the rebounding upside for Tatum, who is already averaging a career-high 8.1 rebounds per game. It’s a perfect matchup for a Tatum ceiling game.
Top Value: Jeremy Sochan at Oklahoma City Thunder – $4,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel
The Spurs are finally starting to unleash ninth-overall pick Jeremy Sochan. Over the last four games, Sochan is averaging 13.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and over 30 DraftKings points per game. Sochan is $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel and needs to be prioritized as he has a 96% Bargain Rating. He also has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings at the forward position and is expected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
This is another very high-total game as it continues to climb to 235.5 points. The Spurs are seven-point favorites, but the Thunder play at the third-fastest Pace in the league. They also have the fifth-lowest Rebounding Percentage, so there is an outside chance that Sochan can get double-digit rebounds after coming up just short in two of his last three games.
Prioritize Sochan on DraftKings, but he is a great way to fit in the expensive players tonight.
Center
Top Ceiling: Nikola Jokic at Sacramento Kings – $11,400 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel
Nikola Jokic has the highest ceiling on both sites but comes in $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, which is rare for someone this expensive. With a 96% Bargain Rating, it is going to be impossible to ignore Jokic on DraftKings tonight. He is coming off of his third triple-double in his last four games as the back-to-back MVP is making it difficult for the voters not to put him in for a third-straight year.
Tonight, Jokic is in another elite spot against the Kings, who are allowing the third-most points per game in the paint this season. To make matters worse for the Kings, Domantas Sabonis suffered a fracture in his right thumb. It is his non-shooting hand, so Sabonis is trying to play through it and is listed as questionable. Guarding Jokic with a fracture in a thumb doesn’t sound like the smartest plan. Make sure to monitor our news dashboard to see if Sabonis is able to suit up or not.
If he can’t go, get as much exposure to Jokic as possible, especially on DraftKings.
Top Value: Onyeka Okongwu at Indiana Pacers – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
The only player on both DraftKings and FanDuel who has a double-digit Projected Plus/Minus is Hawks center Onyeka Okongwu. Clint Capela is out for the Hawks, so Okongwu will enter the starting lineup. Despite the rise in salary, Okongwu is the best value play on the slate for both sites. In his last game he started without Capela, Okongwu had a double-double with 18 points, 11 rebounds, and five blocks. His ceiling is massive without Capela in the lineup.
It will be difficult to ignore Okongwu in this matchup against Myles Turner and the Pacers’ frontcourt. The Hawks have nearly a 120 implied total, as the Pacers rank 27th in rebounding percentage this season. They are also allowing just outside the top 10 in points per game in the paint, which is where Okongwu will look to dominate.
In his third year in the league, Okongwu is averaging career-highs in both points and rebounds, and he will look to add to those totals tonight.
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