Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Coming off yet another triple-double, Josh Giddey has catapulted himself to one of the best fantasy point guards in the league recently. In Wednesday’s victory over the Heat, Giddey stuffed the stat sheet with 28 points, 16 rebounds, 11 assists, three blocks, and two steals, accumulating a season-high 78.5 DraftKings points. He shot 11-for-16 from the field, including 3-for-6 from downtown. Post All-Star Break has been a new Giddey. He is averaging a near triple-double with 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game.
Giddey leads all point guards in projected ceiling due to an elite matchup against the Wizards, who rank fourth in pace and 28th in defensive rating. The Bulls are a 16.5-point home favorite tonight, implied for a slate-high 126.5 points. Despite a rising salary, Giddey is one of the best pay-up options on the slate.
Value
The Mavericks are locked into either ninth or 10th in the Western Conference play-in tournament. They have several guards, including Spencer Dinwiddie, Klay Thompson, Jaden Hardy, and Dante Exum, who are all questionable to play tonight. With no real incentive, they could give a few of those guys the night off.
With a likely depleted backcourt, Brandon Williams has a great chance to draw his third start of the season. He is projected to play 24 minutes and leads all point guards by a wide margin in projected Plus/Minus. The best part is, Williams is a near-minimum $3,200.
In March, Williams has been one of the best contributors off the bench for the Mavericks. He is averaging 16.6 points per game while shooting 54.1% from the field.
Fast Break
Arguably, the best game on the slate is this Eastern Conference showdown between the Pistons and Bucks. These two teams play tonight and Sunday to determine the No. 5 seed. Expect a heavy dose of Cade Cunningham for the Pistons, who leads the entire slate in projected usage rate at 36.4%. In his fourth year in the league, Cunningham is averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, and assists. He’s also found success this season against the Bucks, averaging 29 points, 8.5 assists, and six rebounds per game.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
After a 44-point performance last night against the Grizzlies, Anthony Edwards leads a shooting guard position that is lacking star power. Edwards seemingly couldn’t miss last night, shooting 13-for-19 from the field, 7-for-11 from behind the arc, and 11-for-13 from the charity stripe. His 44 points were tied for his third-highest mark of the season, and he is clearly the Timberwolves’ top option in a game they must win.
The Timberwolves are a slate-high 19.5-point home favorite against the Nets, who are starting a glorified G League team. If they win their next two games against the Nets and Jazz, the Timberwolves are guaranteed a top-six seed. With a 31% projected usage rate, Edwards is the clear-cut best shooting guard option tonight. However, with better studs available, Edwards is drawing just a 5% ownership projection.
Value
Leading the entire slate in projected Plus/Minus is Pelicans’ rookie Antonio Reeves. The Kentucky product has recorded three-straight ceiling performances. In his last three games, Reeves has averaged 18.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.3 steals, and 31.4 DraftKings points per game. Projected to play 35 minutes with a 26% usage rate, Reeves is drawing an ownership projection of over 40%, which is the second-highest on the slate.
Playing with no regular starters, the Pelicans are 14.5-point home underdog against the Heat. This matchup is not difficult compared to previous years, with the Heat barely making the play-in tournament. For Reeves, this comes down to opportunity. At $4,000 with shooting guard and small forward eligibility, he will have plenty of chances to soar over his projected output. He is another great value in all formats.
Fast Break
Coby White has not displayed the same ceiling as Giddey but has also been sensational since the All-Star Break. He’s averaged 25.8 points per game while shooting 49.4% from the field. Most of White’s fantasy production comes from scoring the ball, but he has 30+ points in two of his last three games. Projected for slightly under 10% ownership, White is a cheaper way to get exposure to the Bulls’ offense. He also has shooting guard and small forward eligibility, making it easier to fit him into all lineup builds.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Trying to hold off the Pacers for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Knicks are 7.5-point home favorites against a resting Cavaliers team. Both Josh Hart and OG Anunoby are projected for a similar amount of fantasy points and ownership. Hart gets the slight edge over Anunoby simply because he does a better job of stuffing the stat sheet and is more than capable of posting a triple-double. Hart has a double-double in the last three games, averaging 11 points, 10 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game.
The Cavaliers were without four of their five starters on Thursday, and they could rest again on the second leg of a back-to-back. That makes this a much better spot for the Knicks than if they were healthy. Hart has had no trouble contributing in two previous games vs. the Cavs this season, averaging 17.5 points and nine rebounds per game. He has a fantastic chance for a double or triple-double.
Value
Similar to Reeves, Keion Brooks is projected for 40% ownership and will benefit from all of the Pelicans’ injuries. The rookie from Washington has only played in 12 games for the Pelicans and started four. However, in his last three games, Brooks has averaged 15.7 points, seven rebounds, and 27.4 DraftKings points per game with one double-double.
The Heat rank 21st in rebounding percentage, giving Brooks an opportunity for another points and rebounds double-double. Brooks has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games and has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Both Brooks and Reeves stand out as amazing value options.
Fast Break
Averaging a career-high 18.3 points per game and shooting over 50% from the field, Michael Porter Jr. ranks third on this slate in projected ownership at the small forward position behind the two Pelicans’ value pieces. He has scored 20+ points in four of his last five games while shooting an impressive 58.1% from the field. This matchup against the Grizzlies features the highest total on the slate at 242.5 points, with the Nuggets being 7.5-point home favorites. Porter Jr. is a strong mid-range play in all lineup builds.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo was barely needed in the Bucks’ 25-point victory in their last outing. Despite only playing 26 minutes, Giannis dominated with a 28-point, 11-rebound double-double while recording five assists and shooting 11-for-17 from the field. However, that was not enough to pay off his $12,700 salary. With a slightly cheaper price tag tonight, Giannis will likely be playing heavy minutes in a competitive game and has a fantastic opportunity for his fourth triple-double in his last five games. He is an elite pay-up option.
In his two games against the Pistons this season, Giannis is averaging an absurd 43.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. In their first matchup of the season, Giannis scored 59 points and 97 DraftKings points. Drawing around 5% projected ownership, Giannis is a great way to differentiate lineup builds on a slate with plenty of value options to choose from.
Value
The Pelicans have yet another source of value at the power forward position with Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, who is coming off a 15-point, 10-rebound double-double in his last outing. He added three assists and one block while shooting 7-for-13 from the field for 34.5 DraftKings points. Priced at $3,300, Robinson-Earl should start and play around 33 minutes again on Friday.
Similar to Brooks, Robinson-Earl will benefit from the lack of rebounding for the Heat. These prices on the Pelicans’ values are too cheap, even with this game featuring the lowest total on the slate at 214 points. It will not take much for Robinson-Earl to return value at his $3,300 price tag if he gets to 33 minutes. He can also stretch the floor, which is another area where the Heat tend to struggle.
Fast Break
Anthony Davis has been in and out of the Mavericks lineup but is probable to play tonight against a depleted Raptors frontcourt. The Raptors already rank 19th in points allowed per game in the paint, and now Jakob Poeltl is ruled out. Davis will have no trouble in this matchup. In his last favorable matchup against the Hawks, Davis erupted for 34 points, 15 rebounds, and five blocks. Drawing a little less than 10% projected ownership with power forward eligibility, Davis is another differentiator at the top of the pricing tier.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
This 10-game slate starts and ends with Nikola Jokic. There is plenty of value on this slate, so paying $13,000 for Jokic will be relatively easy. His ceiling projection leads the slate by 18 points, which is why he is drawing a slate-high 50% projected ownership. Over his last seven games, Jokic has taken his already elite numbers to a different level. During that stretch, he has averaged 37.3 points, 12.3 rebounds, 8.4 assists, and 75.1 DraftKings points per game.
The Grizzlies’ interior defense has been solid, but Jokic is matchup-proof. Rookie Zach Edey is going to have his hands full with Jokic in the paint. Nuggets’ point guard Jamal Murray is also doubtful to play. Without Murray on the floor this season, Jokic has a +4.48% usage rate increase (per our On/Off tool).
Value
With the No. 7 seed in the play-in tournament locked up, the Magic will be playing tonight without Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. That will force center Goga Bitadze into more playing time, and he is currently projected for 28 minutes. Bitadze has had the best year of his career this season, averaging 7.1 points and 6.6 rebounds per game while shooting 61.5% from the field.
The Pacers are one of the best matchups for opposing big men. They rank 28th in both rebounding percentage and points allowed in the paint at 51.7 per game. Bitadze is also priced at $3,400, making him one of the best values on the slate. Even with just a 14% projected usage rate, Bitadze will have plenty of opportunities to return value in this matchup.
Fast Break
With power forward and center eligibility, Raptors’ big man Jonathan Mogbo is coming off two massive ceiling performances. In his last two games, Mogbo has averaged 17 points, 10.5 rebounds, and nine assists per game. He has recorded 50+ DraftKings points in both contests with one triple-double and one double-double. The Mavericks frontcourt is finally healthy, but they can still be one to attack.
Pictured: Josh Giddey
Photo Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
