Monday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stephen Curry has been rolling in the playoffs. He’s fresh off a 30-point performance in the Dubs’ 30-point win in Game 3, and he’s scored at least 30 in four of eight postseason appearances.
Curry’s been excellent against the Grizz, averaging 27.0 points, 6.0 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 triples and 1.0 stocks in the Western Conference semis, and I’d expect another big game tonight. With Ja Morant likely out of action, the Warriors have a chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead, and I doubt they squander that opportunity.
The big news on Monday’s slate involves Morant. He suffered a knee injury in the fourth quarter of the Grizzlies’ last game, and he’s officially doubtful for Game 4. Doubtful designations don’t carry as much weight during the playoffs as they do during the regular season — we’ve already seen multiple players suit up despite being doubtful — but it shouldn’t be a surprise if Morant misses Monday’s matchup.
If Morant is out, Tyus Jones becomes without a doubt the best value on the slate with a salary near the bare minimum on both sites. Jones has averaged just under a fantasy point per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 31 in our NBA Models. He averaged 12.7 points, 6.6 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.1 steals across 23 games with Morant out of action, and he should push for 10x value.
Jrue Holiday has been a star against Boston, averaging 23.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 2.7 steals and 2.3 triples in the series and hitting the go-ahead bucket in Game 3. With Khris Middleton out, Holiday has stepped up alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo to lead Milwaukee to a 2-1 series lead. Count on him being at his best again tonight when the Bucks look to go up 3-1.
Jaylen Brown has led the Celtics in scoring in each of their last two games and averaged just under 50 fantasy points in those contests thanks to 28.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 2.0 stocks per game. Jayson Tatum struggled mightily in Game 3, but Brown has been a consistent source of offense this entire postseason. The options are limited across the board tonight, but Brown is someone to spend up for at SG or SF. He’s $8,900 on FanDuel but an absurdly-low $8,000 on DraftKings.
De’Anthony Melton is due for an uptick in playing time and usage tonight if Morant is ruled out. Melton averaged 13.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.3 steals in 25 games without Morant this season, logging 23.1 minutes per game in those instances.
Melton faced Golden State back on March 28 with Morant sidelined, and he finished with 21 points, six boards and two dimes. He’s been an excellent per-minute DFS play since entering the league, and Melton should be a great play in an expanded role tonight.
Desmond Bane has struggled against Golden State thus far, averaging just 10 points and two triples through the first three games of the series while shooting 37.5% from the floor. Despite Bane’s shortcomings, he’ll need to step up in a big way if the Grizzlies hope to even the series and steal a game on the road without Morant. Bane’s ceiling is over 50 points on both sites, so we can’t pass up the value at his current salary.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only player in this year’s playoffs to be in the top five for scoring, rebounds and assists. Through three games against the Celtics, he’s averaged 31.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.0 steals, good for 61.8 fantasy points. He’ll be a highly-owned option tonight with few five-figure guys in the player pool, but I’d highly recommend eating that chalk. Fade at your own risk.
Otto Porter has had a solid series against Memphis thus far, averaging 6.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.0 stocks and a triple across 22.7 minutes per contest. He’s posted just over 24 fantasy points per game in the semis, and he’s fresh off his best game of the postseason in Game 3. Porter should continue to log substantial minutes off the bench, especially with Gary Payton II sidelined.
It’s easy to go chalky on tonight’s slate, especially with Morant doubtful and just two games available. We’ll try to diversify with John Konchar, who’s due to get a bump in playing time. The third-year man averaged 11.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.4 triples across 10 games where he played at least 25 minutes this season. He’s shown that he can post 40+ fantasy points when given the opportunity, so he’s worth a look at a minimum price tag across the industry.
Jayson Tatum gets the nod in this section, though his recent returns haven’t been too encouraging based on his lofty salary. Tatum has finished with fewer than 42 fantasy points in three of his last four, but he also has two 50-point fantasy games and one 60-point fantasy game during the postseason.
I prefer Al Horford, who’s much cheaper on each site and offers much more value, but there’s no question about high Tatum’s ceiling is comparatively. You can’t completely fade Tatum if you’re entering multiple lineups, but if you’re going for a single entry, Horford is the pick.
Grant Williams has been an essential part of the Celtics’ rotation this postseason, and he’s taken on an even more prominent role over Boston’s last two contests. In those games, G-Will averaged 15.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.5 triples and 1.5 blocks while playing at least 34 minutes in each.
Williams’ two-way play gives him the ability to rack up fantasy points even when he’s not scoring, and he’s a great value at just $4,300 on DraftKings and $4,800 on FanDuel. He’s averaged just under 29 fantasy points across his last two, showing his potential to return 7x value or more.
With Morant doubtful, Memphis will need to distribute his minutes, and Kyle Anderson should be on the receiving end of some of them. Slow-Mo was ejected in Saturday’s loss, but not before posting nine points, two rebounds and two blocks across 16 minutes. If he can stay in the game tonight, he should push for 20-25 fantasy points, making him a steal at just $4,100 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings.
Al Horford has averaged a monster 15.0 points, 12.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.7 blocks, 1.7 steals and 3.0 triples in this series, with three straight double-doubles to his credit. Horford has turned back the clock and used his high IQ and fundamentals to play excellent basketball on each end of the court. At just $6,600 on DraftKings and $7,400 on FanDuel, I’m tempted to include him as a value, too.
Robert Williams went off for nearly 40 fantasy points in his last outing, going for 10/5/4/2/3 in the Game 3 loss to Milwaukee. He’s logging minutes in the low-20s in the series, but Williams’ elite defense enables him to score plenty of points in limited playing time. He’s just $5,200 on DraftKings and $5,400 on FanDuel and can return immense value at that price point.
Brook Lopez has scored at least 30 fantasy points in two of three games against the Celtics. BroLo hasn’t attempted a 3-pointer in the series, but he’s pulled down 10 boards in two games and totaled at least two blocks/steals in each. Lopez has a wide range of outcomes for tonight’s contest, but he deserves exposure in tournaments at just $4,600 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel.