NBA DFS Breakdown (Wednesday, Dec. 23): Who Stands Out on a Massive Slate?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Wednesday features a massive 13-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

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Point Guard

Stud

Luka Doncic warrants stud consideration every time he’s on the slate, but he’s particularly appealing at the moment. Kristaps Porzingis is out while recovering from a knee injury, so Doncic should carry an even larger workload than usual. He increased his usage rate by +2.0% with Porzingis off the court last season, resulting in an average of 1.64 DraftKings points per minute.

Doncic also stands out from a Vegas perspective. The total on the game between the Mavericks and Suns also sits at 237.0 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. No other game on the slate has a total higher than 231.5.

Value

The Spurs are in a solid spot on opening night vs. the Grizzlies. Memphis played at the sixth-fastest pace last season, and they were simply middle of the pack in terms of defensive efficiency.

Dejounte Murray should also benefit from Derrick White being out of the lineup. He’s still recovering after undergoing surgery on his left toe, and he emerged as one of San Antonio’s top offensive weapons last season. Murray averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with White off the court, and he has the potential to see a nice uptick in playing time.

Fast Break

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the opportunity to be the man in Oklahoma City this season. Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, and Danilo Gallinari are all gone, which leaves the team without three of its top four scorers from last season. SGA increased his usage rate by +9.8% with all three players off the court last season, resulting in an average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute.

Coby White draws an elite matchup on opening night vs. the Hawks. They were one of the best matchups in fantasy last season after ranking 28th in defensive efficiency and fifth in pace. White carried his impressive finish from last season into the preseason, averaging 16.5 points over 28.3 minutes per game while shooting 48.0% from 3-point range.

Shooting Guard

Stud

How in the world do you approach James Harden tonight? He is obviously one of the best fantasy producers in the game, but he is clearly not happy in Houston. He reportedly wants to be traded somewhere else – Brooklyn and Philly have emerged as the top contenders – but the Rockets unsurprisingly do not want to give up their franchise cornerstone.

The Rockets and the NBA are also reviewing a video that reportedly shows James Harden at a strip club and in violation of COVID-19 protocols, which puts his status for tonight in question.

Make sure to monitor his status using our revamped Labs Insiders tools.

Lastly, his fitness at the moment is questionable to say the least:

James Harden in action tonight. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/IUoZuRgRRI

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) December 16, 2020

His numbers from the preseason were also a bit lower than we’re used to. He posted a usage rate of 30.2% and an assist rate of 38.8%, albeit over a small two-game sample size.

He’s taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight, and they did a solid job against him in the playoffs. Luguentz Dort disrupted him defensively, and he should see plenty of playing time against Harden in this matchup.

Add it all up, and he’s very hard to trust on a massive 13-game slate. That said, he will likely command lower ownership than most of the other stud targets, and he obviously has the ability to go off on any slate.

Value

Lonnie Walker IV is Spur who should benefit from the absence of White. He increased his usage rate by +2.5% with White off the court last season, resulting in an average of 0.81 DraftKings points per minute. Walker was also solid for the Spurs down the stretch last season, scoring at least 24.5 DraftKings points in each of his final four games in the bubble.

Fast Break

Josh Richardson struggled last season with the 76ers, but he’s a prime bounce-back candidate in his first season with the Mavericks. He served as the fourth-option offensively at best last season for a 76ers’ team that struggled on that side of the ball. The Mavericks had the top offense in the league by offensive rating, and Richardson has a chance to be their No. 2 option while Porzingis is sidelined.

Buddy Hield is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 73%, and his 10 Pro Trends rank second among shooting guards. He’s capable of filling it up from deep, and he should see more playing time this season with Bogdan Bogdanovic in Atlanta.

Small Forward

Stud

Jayson Tatum took another step forward in 2020, and he is arguably one of the 10 best players in the league at just 22 years old. He took his game to another level in the playoffs, particularly in the peripheral categories. He averaged 5.0 assists and 10.0 rebounds over 17 playoff games, and he could be poised for a huge year if he carries that production over to the start of the new season.

The Celtics are going to need a huge effort from Tatum this season. Not only is Gordon Hayward gone, but Kemba Walker is also going to miss an extended period with a knee injury. Tatum increased his usage rate by a whopping +8.5% with both players off the court last season, resulting in an average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute.

Value

Jerami Grant decided to sign with the Pistons instead of re-signing with the Nuggets during the offseason because he wanted to be a larger part of the offense. If the preseason is any indication, he’s going to get his wish.

He led the team with an average of 24.1 minutes per game during four preseason games, and his 10.2 shot attempts per game were also tied for the team lead. He will probably take a backseat to guys like Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose during the regular season, but he still figures to be much more productive than he was in Denver.

Fast Break

The Cavs will be playing without Kevin Love on opening night, which opens the door for Larry Nance Jr. to see plenty of playing time. He’s currently projected for 31.6 minutes in our NBA Models, and Nance averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in games without Love last season.

Mikal Bridges looks like a solid source of savings tonight on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,300 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 73%, and he’s expected to see more than 30 minutes of playing time. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.04 (per the Trends tool).

Power Forward

Stud

The Bucks have been the most dominant regular-season team over the past two seasons, and Giannis Antetokounmpo has also been the most dominant fantasy asset. His production on a per-minute basis is absolutely insane, and he averaged 59.25 DraftKings points per game despite an average of just 30.4 minutes.

This version of the Bucks has the potential to be the best yet. They swapped out Eric Bledsoe for Jrue Holiday, who is a much more natural fit around Giannis. He’s capable of knocking down open 3-pointers – something that has plagued Bledsoe during the postseason – and should provide Giannis with additional spacing.

It’s also scary to consider, but it’s possible that Giannis took another step forward with his game during the offseason. If he developed the ability to knock down a mid-range jump shot – or dare I say even a 3-pointer – he could be putting up fantasy numbers that we’ve never seen before.

Value

Marvin Bagley is going to break out at some point this season if he can stay healthy. He’s been an excellent fantasy producer when on the court, but a variety of injuries have limited his playing time. I’m not sure if he’s going to see a full workload on opening night – he got a late start this season after testing positive for COVID-19 – but he should draw the start at PF. Bagley is going to make this price tag look silly at some point in the near future, and I’d rather be too early than too late.

Fast Break

Zion Williamson was unstoppable in the preseason. He averaged 28.5 points and 10.0 rebounds over two games, but more importantly, he averaged 33.5 minutes. If he sees that much playing time during the regular season, he’s almost undoubtedly too cheap across the industry.

Darius Bazley had some big games for the Thunder in the bubble last season. He scored at least 22.8 FanDuel points in their final five seeding games, and he scored at least 42.8 FanDuel points in two of them. He should have the opportunity to see more consistent playing time this season, which makes him an appealing value target.

Center

Stud

This is a huge season for Joel Embiid and the 76ers. They brought in a new coach in Doc Rivers, and the pressure is starting to build on Embiid and Ben Simmons. If they can’t show that they can learn to play together this season, it could be time to consider blowing it up and trying again.

Luckily, Embiid gets to start his season in a smash spot vs. the Wizards. They were dreadful against opposing centers last year, which is not surprising considering they ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and dead last in rebound rate. Embiid should have an absolute field day on the interior.

Value

The game between the Hornets and Cavaliers has some sneaky shootout potential. Both of these teams were terrible defensively last year – the Hornets ranked 25th, the Cavaliers ranked last – so this game could be higher scoring than the 213.5 total implies.

James Washington is one player who stands out as underpriced. He’s coming off a strong rookie season, averaging 25.45 DraftKings points over 30.3 minutes per game, and he’s expected to spend more time at center this season. That should lead to an uptick in rebounds, and he should be able to use his athleticism to exploit Andre Drummond on the perimeter in this matchup.

Fast Break

Jaren Jackson Jr. is still recovering from a knee injury that he suffered last season, which means Jonas Valanciunas should handle the majority of the center minutes in Memphis. That is undoubtedly a good thing for fantasy players. He is an absolute monster on a per-minute basis, and the only thing that has kept him from being an elite fantasy big man is a lack of playing time.

Wendell Carter Jr. is another potential source of savings at the position. He’s priced at just $4,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he averaged a respectable 0.83 DraftKings points per minute last season. He’s projected for 29.2 minutes in our NBA Models, which should be enough for him to pay off his current salary.