The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard has gotten off to a fantastic start this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.25 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. While the rest of the league seems focused on playing their superstars fewer minutes, Lillard is on pace to average a career-high 38.5 per game. He leads all PGs with a 38.1 minutes projection in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged a strong 1.38 DraftKings points per minute.
With that in mind, he seems underpriced at just $9,200 on DraftKings, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Value
Patrick Beverley stands out on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s been a solid fantasy producer this season, averaging 0.81 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s in an excellent spot vs. the Houston Rockets. They currently rank first in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency, which is an appealing combination for DFS.
There’s also a chance that Kawhi Leonard could get the night off — his status is currently unknown for the front leg of a back-to-back — and his absence would give a boost to the rest of the Clippers’ roster. Beverley has increased his fantasy production to 0.89 FanDuel points per minute with Kawhi off the court this season.
Fast Break
The Celtics have an excellent matchup today vs. the Washington Wizards, and they lead the slate with an implied team total of 119.0 points. Kemba Walker stands out in this matchup, as he’s scored at least 42.2 FanDuel points in eight of his past nine games. He should also see a boost in value with Gordon Hayward out of the lineup: He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.32 FanDuel points per minute with Hayward off the court this season.
It feels like Russell Westbrook could be a bit overlooked today. He’s currently projected for just 9-12% ownership on DraftKings, despite the fact that his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. Westbrook has historically been a nice investment with a comparable price tag, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.99 (per the Trends tool). His 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings are also tied for the most at the PG position.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden continues to dominate the basketball for the Rockets despite the addition of Westbrook in the offseason. He’s on pace to lead the league in scoring and usage for the third straight season, and his current marks in both categories would actually represent new career-highs. He’s been as good as ever from a fantasy perspective, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.04 over his past 10 games on DraftKings.
That said, his salary has jumped up substantially since the start of the season, and he has a difficult matchup today vs. the Clippers. The Rockets’ implied team total of 117.75 still ranks second on the slate, but Harden figures to see some tough individual matchups vs. Beverley and Leonard (if he’s active). Harden is obviously always in play, but fading him on tonight’s slate is not crazy.
Value
The Raptors are dealing with some key injuries at the moment. Both Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are expected to miss extended periods of time, which opens up a bunch of playing time for the rest of the roster.
Norman Powell stands out as someone who could take advantage. He played a whopping 37.2 minutes in their last game, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.72 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s underpriced on FanDuel at just $4,600 given his current role in the rotation.
Fast Break
Sticking with the Raptors, no guard on today’s slate can match Fred VanVleet’s minute projection of 39.3. That might be a conservative estimate as well: He’s coming off a whopping 45.4 minutes in his last game vs. the Clippers. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with Lowry and Ibaka off the court this season, so he can do a lot of damage with that much playing time.
D’Angelo Russell is going to have a lot of opportunities for the Warriors this season. It’s essentially him and a bunch of G-Leaguers, so it’s not that surprising that he’s posted a usage rate of at least 40.7% in three of his past four games. Overall, Russell has averaged a usage rate of 35.5% and 1.47 DraftKings points per minute with Steph Curry off the court this season. He has huge upside at $8,100 on DraftKings.
Lou Williams would be the biggest beneficiary if Kawhi ultimately gets the night off. He leads the team with a 36.6% usage rate with Leonard off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. Williams has some GPP-appeal on FanDuel even if Kawhi does play given his Bargain Rating of 77%.
Small Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is out tonight for the Lakers, which puts the spotlight directly on LeBron James. LeBron has operated as more of a distributor than scorer so far this season — he currently leads the league with an average of 11.0 assists per game — but he may not have that luxury today. Unsurprisingly, LeBron has increased his usage rate to 38.1% with Davis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.71 DraftKings points per minute.
The Lakers have one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Golden State Warriors, who have been an absolute disaster defensively this season. They’re allowing 114.4 points per 100 possessions, which ranks last in the league by nearly four points/100. The Lakers’ implied team total of 114.5 points ranks fourth on the slate, and LeBron owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.70 on DraftKings.
Overall, LeBron’s ceiling is pretty comparable to Harden’s, but he’ll cost you $1,000 less on DraftKings. That gives him a clear edge between the two.
Value
Miles Bridges is coming off back-to-back poor performances, which has caused his salary to drop from $6,100 on DraftKings to $4,900. That makes him an excellent buy-low candidate today vs. the Grizzlies. It’s a solid matchup — the Grizzlies rank sixth in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency — and Bridges remains a key member of the Hornets rotation.
Check out this video for a tutorial on how to use our Trends tool to identify buy-low candidates:
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown has the potential to be a huge DFS asset given the injury to Hayward. He’s scored at least 41.7 FanDuel points in each of his past two games, and he’s coming off a season-high 38.2 minutes in his last contest. He’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute with Hayward off the court this season, so he provides a nice combination of volume and efficiency at $7,200.
Ben Simmons has been priced down to just $6,800 on DraftKings, which is extremely cheap for him. He’s never been priced below $7,000 on DraftKings during the regular season; this is a virtually unprecedented situation. His matchup vs. the Magic is less than ideal — they’ve played at the slowest pace in the league this season — but Simmons has a huge ceiling with Joel Embiid out of the lineup.
Power Forward
Stud
Pascal Siakam has SF eligibility on FanDuel and PF/C eligibility on DraftKings, but he’s a strong option today regardless of where you play him. He’s playing a huge role for the shorthanded Raptors at the moment, logging at least 42.2 minutes in each of his past two games. He struggled to ‘just’ 41.0 DraftKings points in his last outing but had scored at least 50.75 in each of his previous three. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his matchup vs. the Blazers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.78.
Value
It’s a great day to pay down at the position, particularly on DraftKings. It starts with Jaren Jackson Jr., who has one of the biggest price discrepancies of the season. He’s the fourth-most expensive PF option at $7,000 on FanDuel, yet for some reason he’s priced at just $4,800 on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 32.0 DraftKings points in each of his past two games and has a strong matchup today vs. the Hornets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.92. Jackson is a very tough fade at such a cheap price tag.
Kyle Kuzma is another strong value option. He should see a few additional minutes with Davis out, and he should see an increased usage rate as well. He also has one of the best individual matchups at the position given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.10 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Chris Boucher is another excellent value on DraftKings given his current role for the Raptors. He’s played at least 22 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s been priced up pretty aggressively on FanDuel, so his $4,600 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Sticking with the Raptors, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson appears to be the preferred target on FanDuel. He hasn’t been as effective as Boucher on a per-minute basis, but he’s still averaged a respectable 0.98 FanDuel points per minute. He also saw more minutes than Boucher in their last contest. The only real concern is his likely ownership: He’s currently projected higher than 40% on FanDuel.
Al Horford deserves some increased attention with Embiid out of the lineup. He’s been priced down to just $5,900 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute with Embiid off the court this season.
Center
Stud
As usual, the center position features some strong values on DraftKings. Karl-Anthony Towns is very reasonably priced at just $9,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%.
He failed to meet his salary-based expectation in his last game, but he was limited to just 30.3 minutes. With that in mind, his 49.5 DraftKings points was actually pretty impressive. Overall, his average of 1.71 DraftKings points per minute this season is the highest mark on today’s slate.
Towns has a tough matchup today vs. the Spurs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.07 on DraftKings, but they don’t really have anyone who can match his combination of size and athleticism. He’s an interesting contrarian option for tournaments.
Value
Robert Williams — aka Time Lord — has had the chance to play more minutes in his second season with Horford out of the picture. He’s taken advantage, averaging 1.35 FanDuel points per minute while posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.98 through his first eight games. That includes a performance with 40.4 FanDuel points, thanks mostly to his six blocked shots. He’s averaged 4.6 blocks per 36 minutes in the NBA, so he has huge upside in that department.
He has increased appeal today given his matchup vs. the Washington Wizards. They’ve been dreadful against opposing big men this season, giving Williams an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.53 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Dwight Howard is another cheap center option to consider. He has an elite matchup vs. the Golden State Warriors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.95 on DraftKings, and he figures to see a few additional minutes if Davis is sidelined. Howard is not the same force that he was during his prime, but he’s still averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Hassan Whiteside represents one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute this season and has played upwards of 35.4 minutes as a member of the Blazers.
Pictured above: Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr. (13)
Photo credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
