The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Tonight’s game between the Blazers and Pelicans figures to be chock-full of fantasy goodness. Both teams are excellent on the offensive end, and both teams are also horrendous on defense. The total on that game currently sits at 240.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate by a sizable margin.
That should make Damian Lillard a very popular target to pay up for. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.26 on FanDuel, and his $10,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%. He’s also carried a sizable workload recently, playing at least 37.1 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s increased his production to 1.37 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Value
Ricky Rubio has been forced to take on a larger role for the Timberwolves with D’Angelo Russell and Jordan McLaughlin out of the lineup recently, and both players have already been ruled out for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Lakers. Rubio has posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.72 over his past four games on FanDuel, yet his salary hasn’t seen much of an increase. He’s in a tough spot vs. the Lakers – they rank first in the league in defensive efficiency – but Rubio is simply too cheap at $5,200.
Fast Break
Tomas Satoransky stands out as one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $3,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s currently projected for 25.9 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.71 (per the Trends tool). Satoransky has also averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season, which makes him more productive than the typical player in this price range.
Ben Simmons wasn’t really needed in the 76ers’ last game, and he was limited to just 26 minutes in a blowout win. He should return to his usual workload tonight vs. the Knicks, and he should be one of the biggest beneficiaries with Joel Embiid out. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.4% and his assist rate by +6.9% with Embiid off the court this season, which makes him an appealing target on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 85%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored at least 30 points in three straight games, and he has the opportunity for another big game on Tuesday. He’s taking on the Bulls, who have been an awesome matchup this season. They rank sixth in pace and are merely average in terms of defensive efficiency, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 110.0 points represents a significant increase from their season average of 106.5. The Thunder will also be without Al Horford and Darius Bazley, and SGA has increased his usage rate by +5.1% with both players off the court this season. That makes him a very tough fade at just $8,000 on FanDuel.
Value
Reggie Bullock has played a ton of minutes for the shorthanded Knicks recently. He’s coming off more than 42.3 minutes yesterday vs. the Nets, and he racked up 32.0 DraftKings points in that contest. Bullock remains very affordable across the industry, so he’s a strong value as long as Derrick Rose and Elfrid Payton are out of the lineup once again.
The Knicks have not released their official injury report for this contest yet, so make sure to utilize the Labs Insiders tool for any updates.
Fast Break
Eric Bledsoe has not displayed the same elite per-minute production with the Pelicans that he has with some of his previous teams, but he’s a cheap way to get some exposure to the best game on the slate. His production has been down recently – he’s finished with 21.0 DraftKings points or less in four straight games – but the Pelicans have played in three consecutive blowouts. His production should bounce back if tonight’s game is more competitive.
Dennis Schroder should serve as the Lakers’ No. 2 offensive option tonight in a solid matchup vs. the Timberwolves. They rank just 25th in defensive efficiency, and Schroder has seen a team-high usage bump of +2.2% with Anthony Davis off the court this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Sticking with the Lakers, LeBron James stands out as arguably the best play on the slate. No one can match his projections in our NBA Models: He leads the slate in median projection by a full six points on DraftKings, and he also owns the highest ceiling and floor projections. James hasn’t gone full Super Saiyan with Davis out of the lineup, but he’s still arguably the best player in the league. He racked up a casual triple-double yesterday vs. the Warriors, finishing with 53.5 DraftKings points over just 30.5 minutes.
Value
The Rockets are in bad shape right now from an injury perspective. John Wall and David Nwaba remain out of the lineup, Christian Wood is doubtful, and Danuel House and Ben McLemore are questionable. That leaves the Rockets with somewhere between eight and 10 players depending on if House and McLemore are able to suit up.
Kevin Porter Jr. has somewhat surprisingly emerged as this team’s savior. He was cast out in Cleveland after an outburst towards team officials, but he has revived his career with the Rockets. He’s racked up an average Plus/Minus of +14.77 through his first three games with the team, and he’s scored at least 42.0 FanDuel points in two of those contests.
He’s been priced up aggressively on DraftKings, but his $6,000 salary on FanDuel is extremely reasonable. It results in a Bargain Rating of 87%, making him one of the best pure values on the slate.
Fast Break
It might be time to buy low on Larry Nance Jr. He’s been priced down to just $4,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Nance Jr. has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.93 with a comparable salary and minute projection. His per-minute production has been way down since rejoining the roster following an injury, but he’s still averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Aleksej Pokusevski is someone you should get familiar with. He’s coming off a massive performance in his last game, finishing with 48.0 DraftKings points over 39.1 minutes, and he should be looking at another large workload tonight for the shorthanded Thunder. Pokusevski has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s underpriced across the industry.
Power Forward
Stud
Zion Williamson has posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, but I remain very bullish on his fantasy outlook. The Pelicans are making him more of a focal point on the offensive end of the court, which has allowed Zion to increase his production to 1.31 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. His playing time should bounce back tonight vs. the Blazers, and he has the potential for a huge performance in that matchup. He’s underpriced at just $8,400 on FanDuel, and he’s in play on DraftKings, as well.
Value
Lauri Markkanen has played three games since returning to the lineup for the Bulls, and he’s averaged a solid 1.00 DraftKings points per minute in those contests. He’s finished with at least 28.25 DraftKings points in all three games, which makes him a reasonable option at just $6,000. He also owns a solid matchup vs. the Thunder, resulting in a position-high Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.75.
Fast Break
Tony Bradley is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and he’s started the past two games that Embiid has missed. He’s been splitting the center minutes pretty evenly with Dwight Howard, and Bradley has averaged a stout 1.15 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Julius Randle made headlines yesterday after nearly punching an official, but don’t let that overshadow his elite fantasy production. He’s finished with at least 60.4 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Knicks’ injury situation. If Rose and Payton are out of the lineup again, Randle would be a strong option even in a tough matchup vs. the 76ers. He leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and no other power forward has more than nine.
Center
Stud
This doesn’t seem like a great day to pay up at center. Going with someone like Karl-Anthony Towns at low ownership might make some sense in guaranteed prize pools, but there are better values available.
Montrezl Harrell is about as expensive as I’m looking to go. He’s been fantastic over his past three games, and he’s averaged a stout 1.30 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He should continue to see plenty of playing time in place of Davis, and his matchup vs. the Timberwolves results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.3 on FanDuel. That’s the top mark at the position.
Value
Dwight Howard was limited to just 19.7 minutes in his last game, but he still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel. That number should increase tonight vs. the Knicks, and Howard has averaged an elite 1.34 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter is another player who is too cheap on FanDuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 87%, and he has significant upside vs. the Pelicans.
If you’re looking to go cheap on DraftKings, Moses Brown seems like your guy. He should see plenty of playing time for the shorthanded Thunder, and his $3,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. Brown has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value vs. the Bulls.
