Tuesday’s NBA DFS landscape features the first games in the play-in tournament starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
The Brooklyn Nets have been basically in a playoff mindset for the past couple of weeks. The playing time Kyrie Irving has gotten lately is absurd. He has averaged 41.5 minutes per game over the last eight games, with only one game below 40. Despite the increased minutes, Irving has shot 41.9% from the field. However, he has recorded over 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games.
Irving ended the regular season by scoring 35 points while shooting 15-of-20 from the field. The Nets are implied for a slate-high 118.25 points as they are nearly double-digit favorites over the Cavaliers at home. They beat them on the road 118-107 just two games ago. This is a big game for both teams as the reward is playing against the Celtics without their starting center Robert Williams.
Value
Reggie Jackson has seen a dip in production in the last two games as he has recorded back-to-back games of under 20 DraftKings points. Playing alongside Paul George will decrease his usage rate and production, but Jackson still comes in as a very strong value play on this slate. Jackson has the highest projected Plus/Minus among point guards on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating.
The Clippers are only three-point road underdogs against the Timberwolves as they certainly hold the upper hand in playoff experience. In the first three games against the Timberwolves this season, Jackson averaged 23.3 points per game while shooting 56% from the field and 48% from behind the arc. Jackson made a career-high seven 3-pointers in his first game against the Timberwolves this season.
FastBreak
Darius Garland is the second-highest-priced point guard on this slate. He has been very consistent for the Cavaliers, and with the absence of Collin Sexton for most of the season, Garland was able to average career-highs in points, rebounds, and assists. Garland has averaged 46.1 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Nets. He has increased his usage rate and production with Jarrett Allen, not in the lineup. Garland is a way to get different on this slate as the Cavaliers are implied for 110 points.
One of the few Timberwolves players with actual playoff experience is point guard D’Angelo Russell. It was three years ago with the Nets, but Russell had three games where he scored over 20 points in their five-game series against the 76ers. Russell is averaging a career-high 7.1 assists per game, which makes up for his poor shooting lately. He has double-double upside tonight as he has averaged one in the last two regular-season games. Both Russell and teammate Patrick Beverley are good options tonight.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Paul George has been fantastic since returning from injury. He has averaged 22.6 points, 6.8 assists, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.8 steals per game while making a combined 21 3-pointers over the last five games. George has recorded two games of 57.5 DraftKings points during that time, showcasing his upside. The minutes continue to increase, as we have George projected for 36 minutes tonight.
The Clippers get the best matchup on this two-game slate playing against the Timberwolves, who lead the league in pace this season while allowing 113.3 points per game. The way George is playing, and with such a good matchup, he is tough to ignore despite his salary rising so much. If the Clippers want to pull off this road upset, George needs to keep playing up to his potential.
Value
After missing their last regular-season game due to injury, Seth Curry claims he will play tonight as he comes in as a strong shooting guard value on DraftKings. Curry has posted over 20 DraftKings points in four-straight games. He has made at least two 3-pointers in 18 of his last 19 games. The only game he missed was due to getting injured after 12 minutes. He can get hot in a hurry.
The Cavaliers are above average guarding the perimeter, but with so much attention on Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving tonight, Curry may be overlooked both in DFS lineups and on the court. Curry won’t provide much in the peripherals, which is why he is best suited for DraftKings with the 3-point bonus. Despite the Cavaliers ranking 25th in pace, Curry will get his opportunities tonight.
Fast Break
Anthony Edwards will get his first taste of the NBA postseason. He has been extremely boom or bust all season long in his second year. His two games against the Spurs show exactly what I am talking about. He went nuclear for over 70 DraftKings points two games ago, while his previous game against the Spurs, he played 30 minutes and had five total points for 16.75 DraftKings points. He has averaged 23.5 points per game against the Clippers, even with Paul George playing in three of those four games.
Caris LeVert could have been the value option as he has the highest projected Plus/Minus of anyone on FanDuel tonight. He has a ridiculous 98% Bargain Rating as he has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last nine games. LeVert will have to play very well to pull off the upset against the Nets. He is projected to start and play 35 minutes. Look for LeVert to be aggressive in this spot.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant has the highest ceiling on the entire slate in our Tournament Model, but he is priced over $1,000 than any other player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Since returning from injury in early March, Durant has shown a ton of upside. Similar to Irving, Durant is playing an absurd 41.1 minutes per game in his last eight games, with three games scoring over 70 DraftKings points.
Durant has recorded a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven of his last eight games as he has a 91% Bargain Rating tonight. He has two triple-doubles in his last three games. There is a few value plays that will help us get to Durant in our DFS lineups. Playoff time, we know Durant is coming. He averaged 35.4 points and 10.6 rebounds per game against the Bucks last playoffs.
Value
Isaac Okoro may be the best option on the slate if you are looking to go dumpster diving. He is projected for 30 minutes, but his production isn’t that high. His defense will need to be used against the very talented Nets players, and playing that many minutes, Okoro is bound to run into some fantasy points. He can be a great salary saver in a stars and scrubs lineup build tonight.
The downside to Okoro is he has recorded a negative Plus/Minus in 11 of his last 13 games. He has finished with over 20 DraftKings points in only two of those 13 games. Okoro has only attempted 12 shots in the last four games despite playing an average of 26.8 minutes per game. In those games, he hasn’t topped 15 DraftKings points. Okoro is very risky but may pay off in a big way.
Fast Break
A little odd that Bruce Brown is only listed as shooting guard eligible on FanDuel, but small forward and power forward on DraftKings, so we’ll slot him right here. The salary on Brown has exploded, but he still has the highest projected Plus/Minus for all forwards on DraftKings. He is also a great play on FanDuel due to his steals and blocks upside. In the last two games to end the regular season, Brown stuffed the stat sheet as he averaged 19.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, three blocks, and two steals per game.
The rest of the small forward position isn’t too promising. There are a few players who are very cheap that could post a value game while playing 20 or lower minutes. Those players would be Terance Mann, Taurean Prince, and Cedi Osman. None of these options really stand out above the rest, but they could be salary-savers and fill-ins if your lineup is in a tough spot. Risky, but need to be mentioned.
Power Forward
Stud
Evan Mobley comes in at a reasonable price on both DraftKings and FanDuel and will get the luxury of playing without Jarrett Allen. No Allen will certainly hurt the Cavaliers’ chances in this game, but it increases the upside of Mobley, who is averaging 16.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game without Allen this season. Mobley feels too cheap on both sites in this spot against the Nets.
After missing five-straight games, Mobley has come back playing really well. In his two games since returning from injury, Mobley averaged 17.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, three blocks, and 39.6 DraftKings points per game while shooting 58.3% from the field. This will be the first of what should be many playoff appearances for the young rookie—excited to see how he plays on the big stage.
Value
Jarred Vanderbilt has struggled down the stretch. He has failed to record double-digit points or rebounds in five-straight games as he has recorded a negative Plus/Minus in four of those five games on DraftKings. His defense will need to be on full display against Paul George. Foul trouble is certainly a concern, but Vanderbilt is projected to play 24 minutes with the upside for much more.
Vanderbilt is having a career year with the Timberwolves. He has averaged a career-high across the board in points, rebounds, assists, and minutes. Another young Timberwolves player who is getting his first test of the playoff experience. His salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel is very nice. For comparison, our model has him preferred over Okoro despite being a little more expensive.
Fast Break
It is weird seeing the next two highest-priced power forwards on DraftKings also being on the Cavaliers with Kevin Love and Lauri Markkanen. Markkanen will start and play more minutes, but Love has been leading the Cavaliers with 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. Both players are solid mid-range options as the Nets have been average at best on the defensive end. They allow the ninth-most 3-point attempts in the lead, which bodes well for both Markkanen and Love, who can get hot from distance.
Similar to his teammate Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris has had back-to-back games where he didn’t perform all that well. Granted, the Clippers had already locked up their playoff seed, so it is tough to factor in those performances too much. However, in his two previous games, Morris averaged 21 points per game while shooting 60% from the field. He finished with over 30 DraftKings points in both games showing his upside. Morris has the highest projected Plus/Minus at power forward on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns is in his own pricing tier when it comes to the other centers on this slate. He is the highest-rated player in our model as he has the second-highest ceiling behind Durant on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Timberwolves led the league in scoring, and 3-pointers made this season, and Towns is a big reason why. He should have no trouble in this matchup against the Clippers.
Towns is leading the Timberwolves in points, rebounds, blocks, and usage rate this season. His rebounding numbers are a little low compared to most seasons, but playing the Clippers, who rank 26th in rebounding percentage, will make up for that. This matchup features a 230.5 point total as the Timberwolves are implied for 116.75 points. Towns is a great pay-up option on this slate.
Value
Nets Head Coach Steve Nash is always a wildcard with his rotation, but it would make sense to play Nicolas Claxton a little more than Andre Drummond tonight based on this matchup against Mobley, who is a versatile center. Our model is playing it safe and splitting the center minutes between the two as both are projected to play 22 minutes tonight. My lean is Claxton between the two.
Drummond will draw the start and has the higher DraftKings points per minute, but Claxton is way cheaper and is projected to play the same amount of minutes. The major issue with Claxton is foul trouble. He has had four or more fouls in each of his last three games. Both Claxton and Drummond are going to be solid center options if choosing to fade Towns; I prefer the cheaper route.
Fast Break
Ivica Zubac and Isaiah Hartenstein are the two Clippers centers who are also in consideration tonight. They are priced very similarly, with Zubac being a little bit more expensive as he also is projected to play four more minutes than Hartenstein. Historically with Towns at center, the Timberwolves have been a very poor rebounding and interior defensive team. This is kind of a pick your poison type of option. Zubac has recorded a double-double in four straight games, while Hartenstein will give you more versatility with his play-making abilities. Hartenstein may be the preferred option on FanDuel as power forward eligible, while Zubac is better suited for DraftKings with his double-double bonus upside. Regardless, both are definitely in play tonight.
