The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features an eight-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has been playing some of his best basketball of the season recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.85 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 58.5 DraftKings points in five of his past six games. He has a chance for another big performance Saturday vs. the Pistons, who have been below-average in terms of defensive efficiency.
Also, Bradley Beal has been listed as questionable on the injury report, and his absence would obviously give Westbrook a huge boost in value. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +8.2% with Beal off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.48 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Mike Conley is a potential rest candidate on the second leg of a back-to-back, and his absence would make Jordan Clarkson an excellent value. He’s played eight games without Conley this season, and he’s averaged 28.16 FanDuel points over an average of 29.1 minutes per game. The Jazz are also in a nice spot vs. the Grizzlies, resulting in a slate-high implied team total of 118.25.
Clarkson is too cheap to pass up on FanDuel if Conley is ruled out given his Bargain Rating of 85%.
Fast Break
The Rockets have the potential to be pretty thin on Saturday. Victor Oladipo was traded to the Heat, and Kevin Porter Jr. missed yesterday’s game vs. the Timberwolves. The Rockets played just eight guys in that contest, and John Wall finished with 37.2 minutes. He racked up 45.1 FanDuel points in that contest despite shooting just 6-25 from the field, so he has immense upside if KPJ is out once again.
Injuries are going to be a huge factor on today’s slate. In addition to the players I’ve already mentioned, Luka Doncic is questionable after sitting out yesterday. Make sure to monitor the status for all of today’s players using the Labs Insiders tool.
If Doncic is in, he obviously deserves attention as a stud target. If he’s out, Jalen Brunson would become an excellent value play. He struggled without Doncic last night, but he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute with Doncic off the court this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
You can add the Clippers to the list of teams to monitor on Saturday. Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley have already been ruled out, but Kawhi Leonard is questionable. That means there will be a ton of minutes and usage available if Leonard is unable to suit up.
Paul George would be asked to carry the load offensively if Leonard is ruled out. He finished with 47.75 DraftKings points sans Leonard in their last game, and he’s increased his usage rate by +6.6% with Leonard, Ibaka, Beverley, and Lou Williams off the court this season. He’s averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, so he has the potential to do a lot of damage even in a tough matchup vs. the 76ers.
Value
Ben McLemore moved into the Rockets’ starting lineup in their last game, and he responded with 33.75 DraftKings points. He also played nearly 35.8 minutes, yet his salary has actually decreased for tonight’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves. He’s priced near the minimum at just $3,200 on DraftKings, which would make him a really tough fade if he draws another start.
Fast Break
Lonzo Ball is not expected to suit up for the Pelicans, which makes Eric Bledsoe another appealing value option. He put together one of his best games of the season with Ball out of the lineup yesterday, finishing with 39.0 DraftKings points. There’s no guarantee he plays that well again today, but he should benefit from additional minutes.
Tyrese Haliburton has been one of the most impressive rookies this season, and he’s in a wonderful spot vs. the Cavaliers. Cleveland ranks tied for 21st in defensive efficiency, and the Kings’ implied team total of 115.5 is the fourth-highest mark on the slate. Haliburton is a nice value on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
Small Forward
Stud
Jaylen Brown is coming off a poor performance last night vs. the Bucks, but he’s in an excellent bounce-back spot on Saturday. Kemba Walker, Semi Ojeleye, and Tristan Thompson have all been ruled out, which means the team will be playing pretty shorthanded. Evan Fournier is expected to make his debut, but that should still leave plenty of minutes for Brown.
Brown’s minutes should be productive. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.8% and his assist rate by +1.7% with Walker off the court, resulting in an average of 1.17 FanDuel points per minute.
Value
Patrick Williams is currently projected for 31.3 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a lot of playing time considering his $3,800 salary on FanDuel. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.12 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Joe Ingles would be another excellent option for the Jazz if Conley gets the night off. He’s averaged 32.88 DraftKings points in eight games without Conley, resulting in a stout average Plus/Minus of +7.2. He’s a bit more expensive than usual at $5,800 on DraftKings, but he’s still capable of returning value at that salary.
Khris Middleton has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on FanDuel, and his 12 Pro Trends rank second at the position. His $8,000 salary also comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 115.75 ranks third on the slate. He also never seems to carry much ownership.
Power Forward
Stud
The Pelicans have allowed Zion Williamson to handle the ball more on offense over the past month, which has had a huge impact on his fantasy stock. He’s been particularly good of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on FanDuel, and he’s coming off 64.5 FanDuel points last night vs. the Nuggets. He’ll get an easier matchup tonight vs. the Mavericks, who are tied for 21st in defensive efficiency. Williamson leads the position with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Value
Kelly Olynyk has seen a massive price decrease on DraftKings for his first game with the Rockets. He was priced at $5,900 for his final game with the Heat, but he’s down to just $3,500 for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves. It’s a great matchup – Olynyk owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.17 – and his salary results in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum is another member of the Celtics who should benefit from their current injury situation. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.0% with Walker off the court this season, resulting in a team-high 1.30 DraftKings points per minute.
Al Horford is playing limited minutes for the Thunder, and he’s gotten plenty of games of for rest recently. That said, he should be an excellent option if he’s in the lineup vs. the Celtics. He’s served as OKC’s primary playmaker with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out of the lineup this season, increasing his assist rate by +10.5%. He’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute in eight contests without SGA and George Hill, so he should be able to pay off his salary with less than 30 minutes of playing time.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns is officially back. His minutes were monitored after returning to the lineup following a lengthy absence due to COVID-19, but he’s returned to his usual workload. He’s responded with at least 52.0 DraftKings points in four of his past six games, including 64.0 DraftKings points last night vs. the Rockets. He’s facing the Rockets once again on Saturday, and he’s obviously capable of finding success in that matchup. Towns’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.03 on DraftKings is the fourth-highest mark at the position.
Value
Robert Williams took over as the Celtics’ starting center yesterday, and he should continue to draw that designation as long as Thompson is out. The “Time Lord” finished with 27.0 minutes yesterday, and he responded with 47.8 FanDuel points vs. the Bucks. He’s averaged an elite 1.52 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of taking advantage of a few additional minutes.
Williams is simply too cheap on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Fast Break
Jarrett Allen owns one of the best matchups on the slate. He’s taking on the Kings, who rank dead-last in defensive efficiency. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.55 on FanDuel, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Most of the top center values are on FanDuel tonight, but Mason Plumlee is an exception. He’s priced at just $6,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he’s been an awesome value recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.88 over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 29.0 DraftKings points in nine of those contests. He should be able to do some damage vs. the Wizards, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency and 24th in team rebound rate.
