The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
Tonight’s slate is a bit light on star power. Trae Young is the most expensive player at point guard, and he’s coming off a poor shooting performance on Friday vs. the Nets. He was just 7-21 from the field, resulting in a subpar 40.5 FanDuel points.
That said, he’s in an excellent bounce-back spot tonight vs. the Cavaliers. The Cavs were the worst defensive team in the league last season, and while they’ve been better in that department in 2020-21, the Hawks still lead the slate with an implied team total of 118.0 points. Young’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.70 is also the top mark at the position on FanDuel.
The only real concern with Young is that he has not historically fared well in back-to-backs. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -2.53 in 23 previous occasions, although he has been slightly better at home than on the road (per the Trends tool). Tonight’s game is being played in Atlanta, so that will hopefully mitigate some of the risk.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Darius Garland stands out as an excellent value at just $6,000 on DraftKings. He’s played a ton of minutes to start the season, and he’s currently projected for a position-high 37.4 in our NBA Models. He’s also been very effective when on the court, averaging 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. Garland owns a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings, so he’s very tough to pass up in a solid matchup vs. the Hawks.
Fast Break
The Magic have a pair of viable PG options in Markelle Fultz and Michael Carter-Williams. Fultz has managed to salvage his career with the Magic, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his first five games on FanDuel this season. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last outing, which caused his salary to dip to just $5,800. He’s an excellent buy-low option.
Carter-Williams is the backup at the position, but he’s still seeing a solid handful of minutes each game. He’s typically very effective on a per-minute basis, so he has appeal as a punt play at just $3,800 on FanDuel.
Dante Exum is expected to see a bunch of minutes off the bench for the Cavaliers. He’s projected for 29.6 minutes in our NBA Models at just $3,600 on DraftKings, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.84.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a chance to be a fantasy stud this season. He’s coming off a dreadful performance in his last game, but he was limited to just 28.5 minutes in a blowout loss vs. the Pelicans. He had posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his first three games, so he should bounce back if today’s game is more competitive.
He’s on pace for a new career-high in both usage and assist rate, which is not surprising given the moves that the Thunder made in the offseason. They lost Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, and Danilo Gallinari, so the offense is going to revolve around SGA all year.
Value
Dwayne Bacon is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, but he’s played a solid role for the Magic to start the season. He’s currently projected for 27.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and min-priced players with a comparable minute projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.97. His role should be safe even if Evan Fournier is active, but he has the potential to see even more minutes if Fournier is unable to suit up. He’s currently listed as questionable, so make sure to monitor his status using the Labs Insiders tool.
Fast Break
Victor Oladipo missed most of last year with an injury, and he looked rusty when he did return to the lineup. That said, he appears to be back to his usual self this year. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first four games, and he’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute. He’s underpriced on DraftKings, where his $6,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Collin Sexton has gotten off to a fantastic start this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.74 on FanDuel through his first five games. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and he’s expected to be one of the highest-owned players at the position.
Small Forward
Stud
Brandon Ingram has posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games on DraftKings, but he’s played reduced minutes in both of those contests. That makes him an excellent buy-low option today, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98%.
He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he has the potential to become a fantasy superstar this season. He’s always been a gifted scorer, but he’s on pace to post new career highs in both assist rate and rebound rate. That has had a tremendous impact on his fantasy numbers, resulting in an average of 1.34 DraftKings points per minute. As long as today’s game vs. the Raptors is more competitive, he should have no problem returning value at his current price tag.
Value
Cam Reddish has started strong for the Hawks. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his first five games, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +4.74 on FanDuel. He’s playing a solid number of minutes – especially with Gallinari out of the lineup recently – and he’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute this season. Reddish is simply too cheap at $4,900 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris has the potential to be the 76ers’ No. 2 option on offense this season, and he’s in a fantastic spot today vs. the Hornets. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.1 on FanDuel, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends. Historically, players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.08.
Larry Nance Jr. has maintained his fantasy value even with Kevin Love back in the lineup for the Cavaliers. He’s played at least 35.4 minutes in three straight games, and he’s averaged a solid 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season. That makes him underpriced at $6,800.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis is one of the best building blocks on today’s slate. He is one of the most underrated players in the league, and he’s capable of contributing in every category. He’s averaged 22.4 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game this season, and he’s even shooting 53.8% from 3-point range. Add it all up, and he’s averaged 1.27 FanDuel points per minute this season.
He shouldn’t find much resistance today vs. the Knicks. They’ve gotten off to a decent start defensively this season, but they’ve struggled on the glass and on the interior. Sabonis owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.37 on FanDuel, and he crushed the Knicks for 54.1 fantasy points in their first meeting this season.
Value
It seems like a day to pay up at the PF position. Most of the highest-rated players in our models on both DraftKings and FanDuel are found near the top of the pricing spectrum.
That said, Chris Boucher could be one possible exception. He has PF and C eligibility on DraftKings, and his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s been fantastic when on the court this season, averaging 1.33 DraftKings points per minute, which gives him excellent upside in games where he sees decent playing time. He’s currently projected for 20.0 minutes in our NBA Models, but he’s played at least 24.4 minutes in two of his past three games.
Fast Break
John Collins has posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games on FanDuel, and he’s averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute this season. His playing time is down a bit given the Hawks’ depth, but he’s still playing around 30 minutes on most nights. He’s in a solid spot vs. the Cavaliers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.33.
Julius Randle leads the position with a whopping 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.69. He probably won’t need to play as much “point forward” today with the Knicks getting healthier in their backcourt, but he still has a strong ceiling at his current price tag.
Center
Stud
Center is another position where you probably want to pay up today, but the top target ultimately depends on which site you’re playing on.
Andre Drummond stands out as an elite target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s coming off a down performance in his last game, but he was limited to just 25 minutes in a blowout loss. He’s averaged a position-high 1.65 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should rebound nicely as long as the Cavs can keep this game competitive.
Nikola Vucevic stands out as the top center option on FanDuel. His Bargain Rating of 63% doesn’t jump off the page, but it’s still the second-highest mark at the position. He’s averaged 1.37 FanDuel points per minute this season and leads all centers with 13 Pro Trends.
Value
Clint Capela stands out as one of the best values of the day, particularly on DraftKings at just $5,200. His price is down because he was on a minute limit to start the year, but he’s coming off nearly 30 minutes in his last game. He’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s simply too cheap if he’s going to continue to see that much playing time.
Pairing Capela and Drummond together is definitely a viable strategy on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid is another possibility if you’re looking to roster a high-priced center. He has a massive mismatch on the interior vs. the Charlotte Hornets, who are currently playing without starting center Cody Zeller. Embiid’s production has been a bit up-and-down to start the year, but he’s still averaged a stout 1.57 DraftKings points per minute.
