The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
New offer from FantasyLabs: Get our NFL models and tools free when you sign up for the NBA monthly plan!
Point Guard
Stud
So this Stephen Curry guy is pretty good, huh? He hasn’t been the most consistent performer this season, but he still has the potential for huge fantasy performances when his jump shot is falling. He’s exploded for at least 69.2 FanDuel points in two of his past three games, and he’s coming off a 57-point performance Saturday vs. the Mavericks.
Curry is in another nice spot tonight vs. the Spurs. They rank 11th in pace and have been below-average in defensive efficiency, giving Curry an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.05 on FanDuel. Curry also stands out as underpriced on FanDuel, where his $10,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%.
Value
Coby White has been a bit of a disappointment in his sophomore season, but he’s in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Wizards. They’ve been a dream matchup for fantasy purposes this season, ranking first in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Bulls’ implied team total of 120.75 ranks first on the slate. White owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.96 on FanDuel, where his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. His price is down across the industry, so this is an excellent time to buy low on him.
Fast Break
Russell Westbrook is a prime rest candidate on the second leg of a back-to-back, but head coach Scott Brooks did say it was possible that he would suit up tonight. If he does, he’s a massive value on DraftKings, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. The Bulls rank just 21st in defensive efficiency this season, so Washington should also be able to provide some fantasy value in this contest.
LaMelo Ball has excited during his rookie season, and he’s filled it up as a fantasy producer. He’s averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is the fourth-highest mark among today’s point guards. He has the potential to play more than usual with Devonte’ Graham unlikely to suit up, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in each of his past six games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Bradley Beal is priced at just $9,000 on DraftKings, which is insane considering his production this season. He was priced as high as $10,200 just last week, and his current price tag unsurprisingly comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. Beal is leading the league in usage rate, and the only reason his production has been down is that the Wizards have played in two-straight blowouts. He should return to his usual workload if tonight’s matchup is more competitive.
He would be a very tough fade if Westbrook is ultimately ruled out. He’s increased his already sky-high usage rate by +3.1% with Westbrook off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.54 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Derrick White has shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings, which increases his appeal tonight vs. the Warriors. White’s playing time is on the rise – he’s coming off 29.1 minutes in his last contest – and he’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute since rejoining the rotation four games ago. It’s possible he sees another bump in minutes tonight, which would make him an excellent value at just $5,100.
Fast Break
Zach LaVine figures to be one of the higher-owned options on today’s slate, and it’s easy to see why: He’s one of the best scorers in the league, and the Wizards can’t stop a nosebleed. LaVine has averaged 1.23 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is just slightly lower than Beal’s mark of 1.34. He’s also -$2,000 cheaper than Beal on FanDuel, which makes him the preferred target on that site.
If you’re looking for a true value option on FanDuel, Josh Richardson makes sense at $4,700. He’s currently projected for 35.3 minutes in our NBA Models, and Richardson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.38 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James remains arguably the best player in the league despite playing in his 18th season, which always makes him a viable fantasy option. That said, he has the potential to be even better than usual tonight vs. the Thunder. Anthony Davis is reportedly not expected to play with Achilles tendonitis, and LeBron has increased his usage rate by +2.3% and his assist rate by +5.4% with Davis off the court this season. That gives him the chance to improve upon his average of 1.40 FanDuel points per minute this season.
His matchup vs. the Thunder is also above average from a fantasy perspective. They’ve played at the ninth-fastest pace this season, and they rank 19th in defensive efficiency. LeBron owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.42 on FanDuel, which is one of the best marks at the position.
Value
Will Barton should carry a heavy workload tonight for the Nuggets. Gary Harris and P.J. Dozier remain out of the lineup, and Jamal Murray is questionable to suit up. Barton is currently projected for 35.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.02 with a comparable salary and minute projection. That gives him the potential to be one of the best pure values on the slate.
Fast Break
Michael Porter Jr. is another viable option for the Nuggets, especially if Murray is unable to suit up. He played 33.7 minutes on Saturday with Murray out of the lineup, and he’s averaged a stout 1.07 FanDuel points per minute this season.
The Cavaliers are expected to be without Larry Nance Jr. for the next four-to-six weeks, and Kevin Love is still not ready to rejoin the rotation. That leaves Taurean Prince to handle a solid chunk of minutes in the interim. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of providing excellent value when given the opportunity.
Power Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a disappointing 41.7 FanDuel points in his last outing, but he was limited to 31.8 minutes in a comfortable Bucks’ win. He has the potential to see a nice increase in playing time tonight in what is expected to be a competitive matchup vs. the Nuggets. They’re currently listed as four-point favorites, and Giannis has played upwards of 39 minutes in games that have stayed competitive recently. Giannis has averaged 1.60 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he can obviously do a ton of damage when he hits his minute ceiling.
Value
Free Chris Boucher! He’s been one of the best producers in fantasy on a per-minute basis this season – he’s averaged 1.30 FanDuel points per minute – but his playing time has been inconsistent. That said, he has logged at least 26.7 minutes in back-to-back games, including 32.7 minutes in his last contest. That provides a reason for optimism moving forward.
If he sees that much playing time again today, he’s going to absolutely destroy the Grizzlies. They’ve struggled mightily against big men this season, giving Boucher an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.25 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis is another big man in an elite spot Monday. He’s taking on the Timberwolves, who have been a disaster defensively with Karl-Anthony Towns out of the lineup. Porzingis leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.84 on FanDuel, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Juan Toscano-Anderson remains massively underpriced on DraftKings given his current role with the Warriors. His $4,500 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s played at least 33.6 minutes in back-to-back games. He managed to post a positive Plus/Minus in his last game despite just one shot attempt, and that figure should undoubtedly increase on today’s slate.
Center
Stud
Boogie is back. The injury to Christian Wood means DeMarcus Cousins can once again be treated as a stud center option, but that’s not how he’s priced across the industry. He was solid in his last game, posting 34.2 FanDuel points over 30.1 minutes, but he has the potential for a much bigger performance today. He’s averaged 1.36 FanDuel points per minute this season, and the Hornets have been mediocre against opposing centers.
Value
Marc Gasol stands out as a nice potential source of value at $3,300 on DraftKings. He’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Davis out of the lineup this season, averaging 24.5 DraftKings points over three games. That’s good for an average Plus/Minus of +7.4 despite an average salary of $3,966. He has the potential to easily surpass that mark tonight vs. the Thunder.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton’s price tag continues to decrease. He’s down to $6,900 on DraftKings, which is just too low for a player of his caliber. Ayton has been mediocre from a fantasy perspective recently, but he’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season and is coming off 38.8 minutes in his last contest. He’s an excellent buy-low target.
Andre Drummond stands out as one of the better values at the position on FanDuel. He’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Nance out of the lineup this season, and his $7,200 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. His 10 Pro Trends also rank second at the position.
Pictured above: Chris Boucher #25 of the Toronto Raptors
Photo credit: Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images
