The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
You can go in a few different directions if you choose to pay up at point guard on Monday. Luka Doncic is always in play. He’s increased his production to 1.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark on the slate regardless of position. That said, he does have a tough matchup vs. the Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.68.
On FanDuel, paying up for Damian Lillard makes a lot of sense. His $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%, and he should continue to carry a massive workload with C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic out of the lineup. He’s also in a pace-up spot vs. the Bucks, and the total on that game sits at a slate-high 235.0 points. There are always some blowout concerns against Milwaukee, but Lillard has excellent upside if that game stays competitive.
Value
Monte Morris stands out as a nice source of value across the industry. His playing time has increased recently, and he’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes in our NBA Models. Morris has averaged a solid 0.81 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of making the most of his minutes. He also owns a strong matchup vs. the Pistons, who rank just 24th in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Devin Booker is currently listed as questionable, and Chris Paul would see a boost in value if he’s unable to suit up. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +7.9% in games without Booker this season, resulting in an average of 44.25 DraftKings points per game. That number would be even higher if not for a game where he scored just 25.25 DraftKings points over 27.1 minutes in a blowout win over the Warriors.
Dejounte Murray has taken a leap forward this season from a fantasy perspective. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute thanks in part to his ability to stuff the stat sheet. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on DraftKings, yet his salary has decreased by -$1,500 since its peak.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Collin Sexton has struggled a bit recently. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five games on FanDuel, which has caused his salary to plummet across the industry. His price has decreased by -$1,300 over that time frame on FanDuel in particular.
That makes him an appealing buy-low target. He’s increased his fantasy output to 1.07 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he owns an elite matchup vs. the Timberwolves. They’ve been dreadful defensively this season, ranking just 25th in defensive efficiency.
Value
Devonte’ Graham has been as effective as he was last season, but he’s tough to ignore today at just $5,500 on FanDuel. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, and Terry Rozier is currently listed as questionable. Graham hasn’t seen a boost in production with Rozier off the court so far this season, but Rozier has yet to miss a full game. It’s possible that Graham picks up some additional responsibilities in that situation.
Even if Rozier is active, Graham still seems underpriced. He’s currently projected for 35.0 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.98 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Tyrese Haliburton has dual PG/SG eligibility on DraftKings, and he’s an excellent option at just $5,200. He’s played at least 30.1 minutes in each of his past four games, and he’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s an excellent combination of playing time and production.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is another option to consider paying up for. His average of 1.22 FanDuel points per minute over the past month ranks second at the position, and he’s carried a massive workload for the Thunder this season. He’s on pace to lead the team in usage rate and assist rate, and he’s scored at least 48.6 FanDuel points in three of his past five games. That gives him an excellent ceiling at his current salary.
Small Forward
Stud
Gordon Hayward remains underpriced across the industry. He’s carrying one of the largest workloads in basketball at the moment, and he’s played at least 36.5 minutes in each of his past seven games. He would also be one of the biggest beneficiaries if Rozier is ruled out. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.5% with Rozier off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.19 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Luguentz Dort is known more for his defense than his ability to rack up fantasy points, but he’s underpriced on DraftKings given the volume of minutes he’s been playing. He’s logged at least 30 minutes in five straight games, and he’s currently projected for 30.8 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.01.
Fast Break
Will Barton stands out as an elite option on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $4,000, but he’s coming off 33.6 FanDuel points over 37.5 minutes in his last contest. Barton is typically productive when on the court – he’s averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute this season – but the bigger issue recently has been a lack of playing time. Barton has been playing ahead of Michael Porter Jr. recently and Gary Harris suffered an injury on Sunday, so playing time shouldn’t be an issue for Barton on Monday.
Khris Middleton is coming off a poor performance on Saturday, but that stands out as a major anomaly. He’s been excellent this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.63 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. His salary has come down a bit for Monday matchup vs. the Blazers, so Middleton looks like an excellent buy-low candidate.
Power Forward
Stud
The Bucks have somewhat quietly disappointed this season. They still sit in third place in the Eastern Conference, but their record and Net Rating are both drastically worse than their marks from the past two seasons.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that head coach Mike Budenholzer has loosened his restrictions on Giannis Antetokounmpo recently. His playing time has been way up, logging at least 36.4 minutes in five of his past six games. Giannis remains one of the best producers in fantasy on a per-minute basis, so he’s unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in all five of those contests. That includes a 72.0 DraftKings point performance Saturday vs. the Hornets, and now he gets a matchup vs. a Blazers’ squad that ranks just 28th in defensive efficiency. Milwaukee’s implied team total of 122.5 is the top mark on the slate, so there’s a lot to like about Giannis.
Value
Jonas Valanciunas remains out of the lineup for the Grizzlies, and Xavier Tillman should continue to start in his absence. Tillman has been an excellent source of value in that situation, and he managed 24.0 DraftKings points in just 21.3 minutes in his last outing. He’s projected for closer to 30 minutes on today’s slate, which makes him an elite target at just $4,800. Expect him to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Fast Break
It’s possible that LaMarcus Aldridge is cooked at this point, but I’m not giving up hope quite yet. He’s still averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he has the potential to pay off his current salary without much playing time. He also owns an elite individual matchup vs. the Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.81.
Kristaps Porzingis got the night off in the Mavericks’ last game, but he should be back in the lineup vs. the Suns. He’s priced very fairly at $7,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 69%, and Porzingis has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.03 with a comparable price tag.
Center
Stud
Giannis will likely draw the majority of the stud attention today, which means that Nikola Jokic could fly a bit under the radar. That makes him an elite option in a potential smash spot vs. the Pistons. Detroit has hemorrhaged fantasy points to opposing centers this season, giving Jokic an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.96 on FanDuel. He’s also coming off a dominant performance yesterday vs. the Jazz, and his 12 Pro Trends are the top mark at the position.
Value
I prefer the idea of spending up a bit at center, but Steven Adams makes some sense if you want to pay down. He’s currently listed as questionable, but he’s likely too cheap across the industry if he does suit up. He’s averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s projected for 31.8 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Andre Drummond has seen a reduction in value since the Cavaliers acquired Jarrett Allen, but he’s coming off 62.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. That was against the Timberwolves, and he’ll square off with the same team on Monday. Minnesota has no answer for Drummond on the interior with Karl-Anthony Towns out of the lineup.
Enes Kanter has been dominant since taking over for Nurkic. He’s increased his production to 1.36 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s played at least 31.9 minutes in three straight games. If he continues to see that much playing time, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he fails to pay off his current salary.
