The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
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Point Guard
Stud
D’Angelo Russell is currently listed as questionable for this contest, just as he has been for each of the past seven games. That said, the questionable designation hasn’t stopped him from suiting up in each of his past four contests, so expect him to be in the lineup vs. the Thunder.
As long as he’s active, Russell is in an excellent spot. Karl-Anthony Towns remains out of the lineup, so Russell should continue to serve as the Timberwolves’ offensive focal point. He’s attempted at least 18 shots in each of his past three games, so he’s underpriced at $6,900 on DraftKings. The Thunder have also been decimated by injuries recently, particularly in the backcourt, so this matchup should be even friendlier than usual.
Value
On the other side of that matchup, Theo Maledon should carry a huge workload for the Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort and George Hill have all been ruled out, which essentially leaves Maledon as the team’s lone PG option. He played virtually the entire second half in their last contest, and he responded with 28.75 DraftKings points. He’s also seen a usage bump of +3.1% with all three players off the court this season, so he has a safe floor and a high ceiling.
Maledon has been priced up a bit on DraftKings, but his $4,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 72%.
Fast Break
The Pacers have played in two straight blowouts, which has hurt Malcolm Brogdon in fantasy. He saw reduced minutes in both contests, and he surprisingly posted a negative Plus/Minus in each. That caused his salary to drop across the industry, which makes him a nice buy-low target vs. the Pelicans. He owns one of the best matchups at the position, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.53, and he leads all PGs with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Devin Booker will miss another contest for the Suns, so Chris Paul should be looking at another expanded workload. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.45 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and his matchup vs. the Pistons results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.45.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The buy-low window on Fred VanVleet is officially closed. He won’t fly under the radar anymore after dropping 54 points and 77.75 DraftKings points on the Magic in his last start, and his price has jumped up a bit as well. That said, he’s still way too cheap on DraftKings, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
VanVleet has the potential for another big performance vs. the Nets. They have been a disaster defensively since acquiring James Harden from the Rockets, and VanVleet should continue to benefit from the absence of OG Anunoby. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.6% with Anunoby off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.29 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Isaac Okoro has been pretty uninspiring when on the court this season, averaging a paltry 0.50 DraftKings points per minute. That’s one of the worst marks on the slate, but he’s still tough to ignore at just $3,400. He’s playing huge minutes for the Cavaliers – he’s logged at least 32.2 in five of his past six games – and he has the potential to play even more than usual on today’s slate. Larry Nance Jr. remains out of the lineup, while Collin Sexton is listed as questionable.
Okoro is currently projected for 32.7 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.72 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
The Thunder are going to provide tons of value on tonight’s slate, and Hamidou Diallo stands out as one of their best options. He’s coming off 32.8 minutes and 31.75 DraftKings in his last game, and he has the potential to be even better vs. the Timberwolves. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.8% with SGA, Dort and Hill off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.14 DKFP per minute.
Devonte’ Graham remains one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $5,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%, and he also leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Small Forward
Stud
There were some questions about how hard the Nets would push Kevin Durant this season. He was coming off a serious injury that caused him to miss all of last year, and most teams have been playing their star players less to begin with. However, Durant has surprisingly carried a pretty massive workload. He’s played at least 36.9 minutes in each of his past six games, and Durant is still one of the best producers in the league on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he stands out as one of the better stud options on the slate.
Durant is an elite target on DraftKings in particular, where his $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Taurean Prince has started each of the past two games in place of Nance, and he’s seen a solid workload in those contests. He’s currently projected for 31.4 minutes vs. the Bucks, which makes him an excellent option at $4,500 on DraftKings. Prince has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has the potential to do a lot of damage with that much playing time.
Fast Break
Justin Jackson is priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and he’s another player who should see a big workload for the Thunder tonight. He started the second half of their last game after Dort got injured, and he ultimately finished with 29.8 minutes. He’s projected for a similar number of minutes vs. the Timberwolves, and min-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.34.
Jimmy Butler has been fantastic since returning to the lineup for the Heat. He’s scored at least 45.1 FanDuel points in each of his past three games, and he’s increased his production to 1.45 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s in an elite spot tonight vs. the Wizards, who rank first in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Heat’s implied team total of 118.5 ranks second on the slate.
Power Forward
Stud
There’s tons of value available on tonight’s slate, so it should be pretty easy to pay up for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Antetokounmpo remains the most dominant force in fantasy on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute this season, and while that’s not as impressive as his mark from last season, it still gives him arguably the highest ceiling in the league whenever he takes the floor.
The only real concern with Giannis tonight is his playing time. The Bucks have won each of their past two games by at least 20 points, which has kept Giannis’ minutes in check. That didn’t stop him from scoring 62.0 DraftKings points in his last game vs. the Pacers, but there are some blowout concerns vs. the Cavs. The Bucks are currently favored by 10.5 points, which makes them the largest favorites on the slate.
Value
Can I interest you in another member of the Thunder? Darius Bazley is one of their top offensive options at the moment, and he’s coming off 41.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. In addition to the Thunder being shorthanded, the Timberwolves also represent an elite matchup. They’ve been dreadful defensively with Towns off the court this season, so the Thunder that do suit up should be able to find success.
Fast Break
Lauri Markkanen has been priced down to $6,500 on FanDuel, which makes him an interesting buy-low target vs. the Magic. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%, and he could see a few additional minutes with Otto Porter out of the lineup.
If you’ve been reading my writeups for a while, you know that I stan hard for Domantas Sabonis. He’s one of the most underrated players in the league, and he’s scored at least 59.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He remains underpriced across the industry, and he leads all power forwards with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Center
Stud
You can add Nikola Vucevic to the list of undervalued NBA players. He doesn’t get the respect he deserves as one of the best big men in the game, and he’s in a great spot tonight vs. the Bulls. The Bulls rank just tied for 26th in defensive efficiency, and Vucevic should command a larger workload than usual given the Magic’s current injury situation. Aaron Gordon, Michael Carter-Williams and Markelle Fultz all remain out of the lineup, and Vucevic has increased his usage rate by +3.5% with all three players off the court this season.
Overall, he leads the position in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
Naz Reid returned to the starting lineup in the Timberwolves’ last game, and he responded with 30.75 DraftKings points over 32.1 minutes. He’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings per minute over the past month, so he has the potential to provide excellent value if he sees a comparable workload tonight vs. the Thunder.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton stands out as one of the best pure values on DraftKings regardless of position. He’s priced at just $7,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Ayton has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.38 with a comparable salary. He also owns an appealing matchup vs. the Pistons given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.02.
Let’s conclude today’s tour of the Thunder with Al Horford. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +3.9% with SGA, Dort and Hill off the court this season, and he owns arguably the best individual matchup on the team vs. the Timberwolves. They’ve been dreadful on the interior without Towns, giving Horford an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.78.
Pictured above: Theo Maledon
Zach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images
