The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook has gone full Beastbrook over the past month, posting a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating and 60 percent Upside Rating on FanDuel over the past month. While there was some early concern about how his numbers would be affected by the additions of Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, Westbrook has slowly but surely returned to his massive usage ways from last season. While he posted a usage rate of ‘just’ 30.2 percent over the first month of the season, that number has jumped to 34.3 percent in November and 36.1 percent in December. Unsurprisingly, he’s been a value at his current salary over the past two months:
His usage rate for today’s contest will likely be even higher given that George has already been ruled out. So far this season, Westbrook has averaged a ridiculous usage rate of 41.4 percent with George off the court this season:
He does have a tough matchup today with the Milwaukee Bucks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.73, but it’s going to be incredibly tough to fade Westbrook in his current situation.
John Wall was a major disappointment on Wednesday, posting just 25.7 FanDuel points in a juicy matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. That said, he still figures to be a value long term at just $8,600 given that he no longer appears to have a minute restriction. He’s currently projected for 35.3 minutes in our Player Models and has smashed over the past two seasons with a comparable salary and minute projection:
He’s in a pace-up spot today against the Houston Rockets, who are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Wizards’ implied team total of 109.5 points ranks fifth on today’s slate and represents an increase of nearly four points compared to their season average.
Value
George Hill has been a solid value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.92 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He’s seen a slight bump in playing time with De’Aaron Fox currently sidelined with a quad injury, culminating in 37.5 minutes of playing time in his last game against the Cavaliers. He has a wonderful matchup today with the Phoenix Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.90, and the Kings’ implied team total of 106.25 points is almost 10 points higher than their season average (96.9).
Fast Break
Victor Oladipo has been ruled today for the Indiana Pacers, which will likely result in a slightly increased role for Darren Collison. He scored 32.75 DraftKings points in his last game without Oladipo and has averaged over 31 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Dipo off the court this season:
He has a nice matchup today with the Chicago Bulls, and his $5,800 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Chris Paul’s status is unknown for today’s game, and that will ultimately be a deciding factor for a lot of people in regard to rostering James Harden. That said, Paul’s status really hasn’t had much of an effect on Harden from a fantasy perspective this season, as The Beard has averaged 54.9 DraftKings points in games with him and 55.43 DraftKings points in games without. He has seen a reduced usage rate and assist rate when sharing the court with Paul directly, but head coach Mike D’Antoni has done a good job staggering their minutes so that Harden can still operate as the lead ball-handler.
The bigger concern for Harden might be that tonight’s game is on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back. Historically, Harden has not fared well in these situations:
The results have been even worse over the past two seasons, with Harden averaging a Plus/Minus of -2.44.
Value
Jordan Clarkson maintains his SG eligibility on DraftKings despite the fact that he’s serving as the Lakers’ starting PG at the moment. He’s crushed in his two games serving as the replacement for Lonzo Ball, averaging just under 37 DraftKings points per game:
He remains very affordable on DraftKings at just $6,400 and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94 against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal leads the position with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on DraftKings, and his production over his past two games hasn’t really been affected by the increased minutes for Wall. He has an elite matchup with the Rockets, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.17, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most among SG-eligible players.
Justin Holiday has been a reliable option for FanDuel users recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 86 percent over the past month. Despite his steady production, his salary has actually decreased by $800 over that time frame, and his current $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He has a decent matchup today with a Pacers team that will be without their best perimeter defender in Oladipo.
Small Forward
Studs
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant sit atop the SF position today, and choosing between the two will be a tough decision. Regardless of who you choose, both players are much better values on DraftKings, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 90 percent.
Let’s start with Durant. His salary has come down quite a bit since its peak without Stephen Curry, who has already been ruled out for today’s contest. He’s averaged a 33.8 percent usage rate and 52.7 DraftKings points per game without Curry this season, which would make him a slight value at his current $10,600 salary:
Of course, we know he has the potential for a whole lot more: He’s scored at least 65 DraftKings points in five of 11 games without Curry this season. The Warriors’ implied team total of 111.5 points ranks second on today’s slate, and Durant has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.62 against the Charlotte Hornets.
The one big edge that Giannis has over Durant is the sheer volume of minutes that he plays. He’s leading the league with an average of 38.0 per game and is coming off a game in which he saw 40.5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves. He hasn’t been producing at the same level as Durant recently, averaging 0.13 fewer fantasy points per minute, but his defensive impact is unmatched and gives him one of the higher ceilings in the league. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.57 today against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but that likely undersells how difficult a matchup this is: He’ll draw the individual defense of Andre Roberson, who has graded out as the best wing defender in the league this season in Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). Ultimately, Durant likely has a slight edge when analyzing all variables, and that will likely push the ownership needle in his direction for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
With all due respect to KD and Giannis, neither option looks like as strong a value as Lance Stephenson on today’s slate. So far this season, Lance has absolutely crushed in two games without Oladipo:
That’s in line with his average of 34.22 points per 36 minutes with Oladipo off the court, and that kind of production would make him an awesome value at $5,600 on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel. He doesn’t have a great matchup with the Chicago Bulls – this game has the second-lowest total on the slate – but it’s going to be tough to avoid Lance given his likely role for the Pacers.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram played a whopping 44 minutes in his last game, and the huge minute total is becoming a trend for him: He’s played at least 39 minutes in five of his past six games. He has a nice matchup today with the Clippers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.10, and his $6,600 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
Paying down at PF will likely be a popular option on today’s slate. Those who do pay up will likely opt for Anthony Davis, who is coming off an outing with 69.2 FanDuel points against the Brooklyn Nets. That said, he has posted a Plus/Minus of -3.99 over his past 10 games, and today’s matchup with the Dallas Mavericks isn’t nearly as friendly for DFS purposes. The Mavericks are playing at the fourth-slowest pace this season, resulting in a pace differential of -5.9 for the Pelicans. Davis has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.10.
Value
Zach Randolph has played just 20 and 21 minutes in his past two games, which makes him a bit of an uncertainty heading into today’s matchup with the Suns. There is some reason for optimism, however: His previous two games were on a back-to-back, while tonight’s game is an island game for Sacramento. Even in low minutes, ZBo has continued to dominate possessions for the Kings, culminating in a usage rate of 39.9 percent in his last game. If he were to see more minutes tonight in an elite matchup, he has the potential to destroy his current $5,800 salary on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Kyle Kuzma has been a monster recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.77 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. However, he’s currently questionable for today’s game with a quad injury, and his absence would likely result in big minutes for both Julius Randle and Larry Nance Jr. Randle remains extremely effective on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so a few additional minutes could make a huge difference for his fantasy outlook. Nance hasn’t been nearly as effective on a per-minute basis but would likely be the favorite to see the larger boost in minutes. He’s very affordable at $4,400 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings.
George will not suit up today for Oklahoma City, which will likely result in a boost in value for Carmelo Anthony. So far this season, Melo has seen an increase in usage of 6.2 percent with George off the court, and he’s turned that usage into an average of 39.6 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
His current $6,100 salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings is also among his cheapest points of the entire season.
Center
Stud
DeAndre Jordan continues to rebound the hell out of the basketball for the Clippers, with his current average of 15.2 per game serving as the third-highest average over the past 15 seasons. He’s in an excellent spot today against the Lakers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.32, and his $7,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. The big caveat with Jordan is that Blake Griffin may return for today’s contest, and Blake’s presence would likely result in a few less rebounds: Jordan’s rebound rate has decreased by 5.3 percent when sharing the court with Griffin this season.
Value
Steven Adams looks like a major value on DraftKings today at just $6,300. He has an elite matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been smashed by opposing centers all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.41 for Adams on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
The Phoenix big men have a strong matchup today against the Sacramento Kings, but unfortunately that situation is an incredibly difficult one to analyze. Alex Len has been the best of the bunch recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.06 over his past 10 games, but he’s seen 20.5 minutes or less in three of his past four. The lone exception was his most recent game, however, which does create a bit of optimism for him today. Marquese Chriss has also appeared to crawl his way out of the doghouse recently, playing at least 25 minutes in three straight games. At just $3,600 on DraftKings, he doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary.
Myles Turner is another member of the Pacers who should see a bump in value given the injury to Oladipo: He’s averaged over 40 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with him off the court this season:
He’s much more intriguing on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Good luck!
Photo via Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
