Friday brings a huge 14-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has amazingly hit salary-based expectations in each of his last nine games, averaging 10.14 excess FanDuel points despite carrying sky-high price tags:
He has scored over 49.9 FD points in each of those games and has been at 59.1 or above in each of his last four. As if he needed any help scoring fantasy points, he now gets a dream matchup against the Nuggets, who own the 19th-ranked defense and have allowed a poor +2.5 DraftKings Plus/Minus to PGs this season. Russ has used a whopping 41.7 percent of his team’s possessions while on the floor and that will likely continue considering the lack of talent on the wings around him. Westbrook is very expensive at $12,000 DK and $11,800 FD, but he still holds large Projected Plus/Minus values of +5.15 and +7.74. There’s certainly merit to fading him in this huge slate — he’s projected to be owned in a position-high 17-20 percent of FD lineups — but he’s had a ridiculous 50-point floor lately. That’s scary to fade.
Value
Jamal Murray is somehow the Utah Jazz whisperer: In his two games against them lately, he’s popped off for 18 and 23 real points. The rookie has been playing very well lately and got a boost in minutes last game as result, getting 35.2 and taking 19 shots Wednesday against the Jazz. He’s now hit salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games, and he’s still only $3,800 FD. The Thunder have dropped off a bit defensively the past couple of weeks and now rank eighth, allowing 102.2 points per 100 possessions. As we’ve mentioned often in this space and on our NBA pods, the Thunder are weak against PGs: They’ve allowed them to score 2.0 DK points above salary-based expectations on the year — the fifth-worst mark in the league. Murray probably won’t get 35 minutes as he did last game, but he should get in the mid-to-high 20s, and he needs only 14.54 FD points at his salary to hit value.
Leverage Play
It’s hard to get excited about Rajon Rondo in this huge, star-studded PG slate — I mean, Stephen Curry and the Warriors get the Lakers again tonight after hanging 149 on them Wednesday, and Kemba Walker gets the terrible Knicks defense — but Rondo’s a pretty nice tournament option. He’s been a solid DFS asset lately, scoring 31.8 or more FD points in each of his last three games while racking up at least nine rebounds and eight assists in each contest. He’s been flirting with a triple-double and definitely could hit that bonus tonight against the Philadelphia 76ers, who have a bottom-10 defense again this year. The Bulls are currently 7.5-point favorites implied for 106 points. Rondo comes with only nine to 12 percent ownership. He’s at a low $5,700 price tag on FD, where he owns 10 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Stud
This is a really tough slate, as several of the high-priced studs have elite matchups. James Harden gets the Kings, who own the 28th-ranked defense in the league, allowing a miserable 108.1 points per 100 possessions. He’s managed to match Westbrook’s ridiculous DFS scores while using fewer possessions (a more sustainable 35.7 percent) while on the floor. He’s had at least nine assists in every game in November, and he’s been above 50 FD points in each of his last four. Want a really impressive stat? He scored 50.7 FD points last game while having 12 turnovers. As expected, he’s projected for a position-high 21-25 percent FD ownership. He has position-high Projected Plus/Minus marks of +5.35 and +6.47 on DK and FD, despite the high price tags. He’s an elite option in all contest formats.
Value
Victor Oladipo is again the highest-rated SG in the Phan Player Model for FD, where he comes with a +3.94 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He has hit salary-based expectations in each of his last five games, scoring at least 27.8 FD points in all those contests. That’s above where he needs to be tonight to hit value — his $5,900 salary comes with an expectation of 23.76 points — and he’s shown a high ceiling, recently dropping 49.5 FD points against the Rockets. He and Westbrook are literally the only two players who can dribble a basketball on the Thunder’s roster — and he’s projected for 36.4 minutes and a 20.01 usage rate tonight. Denver has also been poor against SGs this year, allowing 1.0 points above salary-based expectations to the position on DK.
Leverage Play
I think it’s safe to say that Klay Thompson is out of his early-season shooting slump: He’s hit salary-based expectations in five of his last six games, scoring at least 25 real points in those contests. He’s now hit at least three 3-pointers in each of his last eight games, including four against the Lakers Wednesday in only 23.7 minutes of action. As mentioned above, the Warriors dropped 149 points on the Lakers in that game, and they’re currently implied for a slate-high 122 points again tonight. There’s definitely a blowout risk — the Warriors are humming offensively right now and are 12.5-point favorites — but Klay and all the Warriors starters showed that they can hit value even in abbreviated minutes. Klay comes with low five to eight percent ownership in this huge slate and could be a nice leverage play off still-underpriced teammates Curry and Kevin Durant.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler has been an elite DFS asset lately, scoring at least 55-plus FD points in his last two games, hitting salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, and averaging a +13.18 FD Plus/Minus in that time frame. He’s priced up at $9,300 on DK today, but he’s still only $8,800 on FD, where he comes with a +6.61 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He gets a really juicy matchup today against a 76ers defense that ranks bottom-10 this year and is allowing 1.6 DK points above salary-based expectations to SFs — the third-worst mark in the league. Butler is currently the highest-rated SF in the FD Phan Model and is projected to be owned in nine to 12 percent of lineups. He’s an elite option in all contest formats on FD and is a nice contrarian GPP play on DK.
Value
DeMarre Carroll has quietly hit salary-based expectations in each of his last seven games, and he exploded last game, scoring 40.75 DK points in 26.8 minutes against the Rockets. He has slowly increased his playing time and has received 26.8 and 33.0 minutes in his last two games. He’s projected for 26.6 minutes today, which is a little thin in a short slate, but he has a great matchup against a Bucks team that has been the worst squad in the league versus SFs this season. Per our Trends tool, the Bucks have allowed opposing SFs to score 2.6 points above salary-based expectations. Carroll is only $3,600 DK and $3,800 FD. He can potentially unlock some valuable Westbrook and Harden-filled lineups with his low salary.
Leverage Play
Paul George has been playing heavy minutes lately — 37.6, 36.7, 34.2, and 40.5 in his last four games — and is only $8,000 on DK today against a Nets team that currently ranks 27th on defense, allowing a poor 107.9 points per 100 possessions. They’ve been bad against SFs specifically, allowing 0.9 DK points above salary-based expectations — the sixth-worst mark. The Pacers are currently nine-point favorites and implied to score 112.25 points, which is second only to the Warriors’ high 112-point total. George has scored 1.12 DK points per minute in the past year, right behind Durant, Butler, and LeBron James — guys all priced between $9,300 and $9,600 DK. George is projected for 35.7 minutes tonight and is a really nice play down from those guys, given his very low price tag.
Power Forward
Stud
The trend of stud players with elite matchups continues: Anthony Davis gets the Trail Blazers, who currently own the league’s worst defense, allowing an awful 109.7 points per 100 possessions. Brow rebounded from an injury scare two games ago, dropping 68.5 DK points in 38.5 minutes against the Timberwolves on Friday thanks to 45 real points and 10 rebounds. Portland has been a sieve to opposing PFs this year, allowing them to score 1.7 DK points above salary-based expectations. Davis has high price tags at $10,700 DK and $11,600 FD, but he’s still the highest and second-highest rated PF in the DK and FD Phan Models, given his recent play and elite matchup. He’s probably the best play on the board overall, but he will be chalky: He’s currently projected for a slate-high 26-30 percent ownership on FD, and that could be even higher on DK, where he owns a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Kristaps Porzingis has been on fire lately, hitting salary-based expectations in each of his last five games and scoring at least 32 FD points in each contest. Against the Trail Blazers — and this should get you even more excited about Brow — Porz dropped 43.3 FD points in 39.6 minutes, scoring 31 real points and grabbing nine boards. He has a fairly tough matchup today against a Charlotte team that ranks eighth defensively this year, but he’s a matchup nightmare for any team, given his size and shooting ability. Per our NBA Matchups tool, he should draw the start opposite Marvin Williams, who is 6’9″; Porzingis is 7’3.” This really comes down to his price, though: He’s only $7,200 on FD, where he comes with a high +5.33 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
I’ll throw out LaMarcus Aldridge as the ‘Leverage Play’ today for those skipping Black Friday shopping and playing in the 1pm ET all-day or early slates. Aldridge has been excellent lately, hitting salary-based expectations in four of his last five games and scoring at least 33 FD points in that time frame. He had been in a little bit of a shooting slump before that, but that has helped drop his salary down to only $6,400 DK and $6,900 FD. Boston has been a little better defensively lately, but the Celtics still have a poor Opponent Plus/Minus mark against PFs: They’ve allowed them to score 1.3 DK points above salary-based expectations this season. Aldridge has nice Projected Plus/Minus values of +4.25 and +4.35 on DK and FD, and he’s actually the highest-rated DK and FD PF in the Phan Model. He’s currently projected for 35.5 minutes and a 24.07 usage rate. He’s a nice pivot down from Brow and Kristaps if you’re playing the earlier slates.
Center
Stud
Center is an interesting spot tonight, as it is the only position in which the studs all have tough matchups: Hassan Whiteside against the Grizzlies (30th), DeMarcus Cousins versus the Rockets (26th), Karl-Anthony Towns versus the Suns (25th), and Andre Drummond against the Clippers (28th) all have bottom-six matchups in terms of DK Plus/Minus allowed to the position. There’s a value play that will likely be very popular — we’ll get to him in a second — but if you want to pay up with this group, you might want to lean toward Towns against the Suns, who play at the second-fastest pace in the league. He’s definitely the most volatile player of the group — he has 29.7 and 56.1 FD points in his last two games — but you’ll probably want to pay up for one of these guys in tournaments only anyway. If you want the guy playing the best right now, look at Cousins, who has hit salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games.
Value
Joel Embiid will rest tonight for the 76ers, which means that Jahlil Okafor will draw the start at only $4,300 DK and $4,400 FD. He still won’t play a ton of minutes — he’s projected for 25.6 currently — but he is expected to use a high 29.4 percent of his possessions while on the floor. He really struggled last game out, scoring only 8.2 FD points in 26.2 minutes against the Grizzlies, but he has a much easier matchup tonight against the Bulls, who have allowed a +1.9 DK Opponent Plus/Minus to centers this year — the sixth-highest mark in the league. Okafor is projected for five to eight percent ownership on FD, where he’s easily the highest-rated center in the Phan Model, owning a nice +5.12 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
Interestingly, the Miami Heat have been the third-worst team against centers this year, allowing a poor +3.1 DK Plus/Minus to the position. That bodes well for Marc Gasol, who has crushed value in his last two games, scoring 44.8 and 39.1 FD points in 45.4 and 34.4 minutes. He has 13 assists, four steals, and six blocks in those contests: He can score fantasy points in a variety of ways. This game has a low 192.5-point total, but that should work to keep Gasol’s ownership down in tournaments given the large slate: He’s projected to be owned in only five to eight percent of FD contests. He’s only $6,700 DK and $6,900 FD and owns double-digit Pro Trends on both sites.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
