The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Tonight’s slate will feature the first ABC prime time game of the season, and boy did they pick a good one. The Rockets and Warriors both rank in the top-two in offensive efficiency, top-five in 3-pointers made, and top-eight in pace this season. The result should be a whole lot of offense, evidenced by a 234-point over/under that has been matched just once this season. Historically, targeting players projected for at least 20 minutes of playing time in games with a comparable total has worked out well . . .
. . . but targeting the ‘stud’ players in these games has not been nearly as successful:
With that in mind, don’t feel like you have to jam in Chris Paul or Stephen Curry just because of the massive total. Both figure to be popular options at the position, but neither is really in an elite spot today. Paul has gotten a bit cheaper with the return of James Harden, but he still might be a bit overpriced: His usage rate of 20.4 percent in his last game was his lowest mark in nine games. Curry, meanwhile, will have to deal with the individual defense of Paul, who still grades out as one of the best in the business per Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM). His resulting Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.98 is less than ideal. That said, he might be worth consideration on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Value
The Bucks are going to be down a lot of minutes on the wing today, with both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Malcolm Brogdon slated to miss today’s contest. While Eric Bledsoe may not see a huge uptick in minutes as the starting PG, he will almost undoubtedly see an uptick in value. So far this season, he’s increased his usage rate by 7.9 percent and averaged over 48 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with both players off the court:
He also has an awesome matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, who have struggled to defend opposing PGs all season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.27 for Bledsoe on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
And don’t forget about Matthew Dellavedova, who’s priced at just $3,300 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel. He’s a prime candidate to see some increased run with the first team in addition to serving as the backup PG.
Fast Break
The 76ers will be down J.J. Redick and Jerryd Bayless for today’s contest, which will likely result in a big workload for T.J. McConnell. McConnell has averaged 1.06 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so he can do a lot of damage when given the opportunity.
Damian Lillard has the best matchup of the day at the position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.51 against the Dallas Mavericks. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He might fly a bit under the radar given the presence of Bledsoe, Paul, and Curry, which makes him an elite target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Shooting Guard
Studs
It will be interesting to see what people do with James Harden on today’s slate. On one hand, he’s likely still on some sort of a minutes restriction, which obviously decreases his appeal. On the other hand, he’s been priced down to just $9,700 on DraftKings in what should be an awesome game environment against the Warriors. He’s obviously way too risky for cash games, but he could be an intriguing target for GPPs. Even if he plays only 30 minutes, he still has massive upside.
Khris Middleton will likely be the SG of choice for most people on today’s slate. He’s led the team with a usage rate of over 36 percent with Giannis and Brogdon off the court this season:
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.50 against the 76ers and has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on FanDuel.
Value
There may not be a more boring person to roster in NBA DFS than Tony Snell. He’s a low usage player and has averaged just 0.53 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which is the lowest mark among all SGs on today’s slate. That said, it’s hard to discount a guy who is priced at nearly the minimum across the industry and could play upwards of 40 minutes. He’s definitely cash-game viable, but he may not have the ceiling required for GPPs.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies figure to be shorthanded again tonight, which will likely result in another big workload for Tyreke Evans. He posted a usage rate of 33.5 percent last night given the Grizzlies’ injuries but was needed for only 28 minutes in a game that Memphis won easily. Tonight’s matchup with the Pelicans should be a good one for Evans: It’s the largest pace-up spot of the day, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +5.6, and Evans has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.95 on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant might be the most appealing superstar in tonight’s marquee game. He has the best Opponent Plus/Minus of the group at +2.24 on FanDuel and has historically destroyed the Rockets as a member of the Warriors:
The SF position is also much thinner than PG or SG on today’s slate, with only four players owning price tags of $6,000 or higher on FanDuel. He’ll likely be one of the highest-owned players on the slate for that reason.
Value
Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green will each serve the second game of their suspensions tonight, which will likely result in a larger workload for P.J. Tucker. He played 33 minutes in the first game without Ariza and Green but has been plagued by a Snell-like 0.54 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That said, the game environment between the Rockets and Warriors will likely trump Tucker’s poor fantasy efficiency: Players with a comparable salary and minute projection have historically smashed in games with massive totals:
Fast Break
Josh Richardson has been one of the most reliable assets in NBA DFS recently, posting a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating over the past month. Despite his production, his salary has actually decreased by $500 over the past 10 games on FanDuel, which makes him an attractive target again today.
January has not gotten off to the best start for Robert Covington. He’s shooting a paltry 33.3 percent from the field and 30.4 percent from 3-point range this month. The shooting slump has really crippled his fantasy production, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -7.59 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. If you can stomach a bit of risk, however, this could be a prime buy-low opportunity given the 76ers’ injury situation. He played over 40 minutes in their last game and is almost undoubtedly underpriced if he sees some shooting regression.
Power Forward
Stud
If you’re looking for a contrarian stud on today’s slate, consider Anthony Davis. He’s coming off a disappointing game against the Hawks, but prior to that had scored at least 48 fantasy points in four straight games. Unfortunately, he does have a tough matchup today against the Grizzlies, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.70. However, he did score 57 DraftKings points against them in their only meeting so far this season, so it’s not like he can’t succeed in this matchup. He’s more appealing today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Value
Dario Saric is another member of the 76ers who figures to see an increased role. No one on the team has been more effective this season with Redick, Bayless, and Markelle Fultz off the floor than Saric, who has averaged 33.61 FanDuel points per 36 minutes in those situations:
At just $5,500 on FanDuel, that kind of production would be more than enough to return value.
Fast Break
Draymond Green has had great success against the Rockets over the past two seasons:
He has one of the best individual matchups in that game, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.62. He’s a better buy on FanDuel, where his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
John Henson has played at least 30 minutes in each of his past two games and doesn’t figure to see less playing time today given the Bucks’ injury situation. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.42 is also one of the top marks at the PF position on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid is in a dream spot today against the Bucks. First, the Bucks have been one of the worst teams against opposing centers all season, giving Embiid an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.75 on FanDuel. They’ve particularly struggled in the rebounding category, with only Dallas grabbing a lower percentage of available boards this season.
Embiid should also get a chance to build on his season-long usage rate of 33.1 percent. He’s averaged a usage rate of 37.5 percent with Redick off the court this season, which he’s converted into roughly 52 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He scored 59.2 FanDuel points in his last game without Redick and is in a prime spot to smash again today.
Value
Jonas Valanciunas could be an appealing option for those looking to pay down at the position. The problem with Val has never been production, but rather a lack of reliable playing time. That said, he has seen at least 27.5 minutes in back-to-back games, which provides some optimism that he’ll get more regular playing time moving forward. If he does, he’s almost certainly underpriced at $5,500 on FanDuel given his average of 1.17 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan won’t play for the Clippers tonight as they actively look to trade him. Montrezl Harrell has been the prime beneficiary of his absence recently, averaging 28.5 minutes and 29.75 DraftKings points in three games without DJ this season:
He has a tough matchup today against the Jazz but may be too cheap to pass up on DraftKings at $4,800.
Hassan Whiteside has rattled off back-to-back games with at least 50 DraftKings points but has a tough matchup tonight against Dwight Howard and the Hornets. Still, it’s hard to write off a guy with that kind of upside who costs only $7,600. He could be an intriguing contrarian option for GPPs.
Good luck!
Photo via Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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