The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a four-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall has been excellent recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in six straight games while averaging a Plus/Minus of +10.60 on DraftKings. He’s in an excellent spot to build on those numbers today against the Brooklyn Nets. The Wizards’ implied team total of 112.75 ranks second on today’s slate, and Wall has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.88. Today’s match is the second leg of a back-to-back for the Wizards, but Wall has historically crushed in these spots as long as the game has been at home:
He’s a stronger value today on DraftKings, where his $9,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Value
Kyle Lowry is unlikely to play today for the Raptors, which will likely result in Delon Wright entering the starting lineup. Wright has been fantastic recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +8.72 over his past 10 games on FanDuel:
He disappointed in his last game, playing just 18 minutes and scoring 19.4 FanDuel points in a blowout. Fred VanVleet also ate into his workload, but Wright still figures to see the majority of the minutes at PG if today’s game against the Warriors stays close.
Fast Break
Only Wall and Stephen Curry have been better on a per-minute basis at the PG position than Kris Dunn over the past month. He’s averaged 1.17 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings, and his $7,300 salary makes him much easier to afford than the other two. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 85 percent over the past month, which makes him an appealing target for cash games.
Ish Smith hasn’t exactly thrived as the starting PG for the Pistons, failing to return value in three of his past five games. Still, he remains affordable at $5,500, and Smith has historically been a solid value with a comparable salary and minute projection (30.3):
Jamal Murray was a sharp target yesterday, owning the third highest Volatility rating on our DFS Ownership Dashboard:
The sharp ownership makes sense. The Nuggets were without Gary Harris, and Murray has seen the largest bump in usage and fantasy production with Harris off the court this season:
If Harris is out again today, Murray could be an intriguing buy-low option.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan wasn’t really needed in the Raptors’ last game against the Cavaliers, but he still figures to be a massive part of their offense with Lowry on the sidelines. So far this season, he’s posted a usage rate of 35.7 percent while averaging 47.5 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Lowry off the court:
Today’s game between the Raptors and Warriors also has a lot of fantasy appeal. Both of these teams rank in the top-three in offensive efficiency and top-nine in pace, and the resulting over/under of 225.5 is the highest mark on the slate by a wide margin. DeRozan has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.96 on DraftKings and should be one of the more popular targets of the day.
Value
Will Barton played 40 minutes yesterday and could handle a similar workload today if Harris remains sidelined. He’s almost undoubtedly underpriced on DraftKings if that’s the case given his average of 0.96 fantasy points per minute this season. He does have a brutal matchup with the Spurs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.02, but the combination of price and potential workload might be too good to pass up.
Fast Break
Curry is questionable for today’s contest, and his absence could potentially open up a few more scoring opportunities for Klay Thompson. Klay has seen the second-largest usage increase on the team with Curry off the court this season, resulting in an average of 32.4 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.20 against the Raptors and remains affordable at $6,500 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel.
Avery Bradley has really struggled as a member of the Pistons but has managed to hit value in two straight games on FanDuel. He’ll have an excellent shot to make it three in a row today against the Bulls, who reward Bradley with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.41 on FanDuel. He’s underpriced on FanDuel, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant presents a tough dilemma on today’s slate. On one hand, he’s one of the few true studs available, and his stock is only made higher by the potential absence of Curry. He’s averaged over 51 DraftKings points per game in 14 games without Curry this season, which would make him a decent value at his current $9,700 salary:
That said, his best games without Curry all came at the beginning of Steph’s absence: He’s posted a Plus/Minus of -5.95 over his past six games without Curry. He also has a brutal matchup against the Toronto Raptors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.45. He is a better value today on DraftKings, owning a Bargain Rating of 97 percent, but this spot is far from a slam dunk for Durant.
Value
DeMarre Carroll returned on Friday and produced right away, scoring 31.3 FanDuel points in 28 minutes of playing time. He’s averaged 0.9 fantasy points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play more than that to have a shot at returning value at $4,600 on FanDuel. He stands out as one of the only real values at a weak position on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Otto Porter has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on DraftKings in a wonderful matchup against the Nets. He comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.12, and he played over 39 minutes yesterday against the Magic. He has significant upside at his current salary.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge bombed badly in his last start against the Lakers, scoring just 27.5 DraftKings points in 35 minutes. That said, he still figures to be the focal point of the San Antonio offense for as long as Kawhi Leonard is sidelined. He’s posted a usage rate of 29.3 percent while averaging 39.34 DraftKings points in games without Leonard this season:
That said, he might be a little too expensive today at $8,700 on DraftKings and $9,500 on FanDuel for a tough matchup against the Denver Nuggets. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.12, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -3.86 against them over the past two seasons.
Value
The Nuggets may still be getting ridiculed for trading the pick that became Donovan Mitchell for Trey Lyles, but Lyles has been doing his best to change that recently:
He’s averaged 1.04 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel over the past month and has played at least 28 minutes in six of his past eight games. He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris has been a clear beneficiary of the injury to Reggie Jackson. He’s seen a usage increase of approximately two percent, which he’s converted into just under 34 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He’s one of the safest options at the position today against the Chicago Bulls.
Markieff Morris has been extremely volatile this season but has quite possibly the best matchup of the day at the position against the Nets. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.04, although there’s no guarantee he’ll play enough minutes to return value at his current salary.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has been a beast recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games. His average of 1.46 fantasy points per minute over the past month is the highest mark among today’s centers and trails only Curry’s on the slate. He has a decent matchup today against the Bulls, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.22 on DraftKings.
Value
Mason Plumlee continues to be the safest 20 minutes in NBA DFS. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in 15 of his past 17 games despite rarely seeing more than 24 minutes of playing time. He has a solid matchup against the Spurs, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14. It never feels good to play someone with such a low minutes floor, but Plumlee has been the exception this season.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on DraftKings, where he leads all centers with 10 Pro Trends. Historically, centers with a comparable number of Pro Trends and Bargain Ratings have been excellent values:
Marcin Gortat has the best matchup of the day at the center position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.66 on DraftKings. He probably won’t play more than 30 minutes, but that should still give him a chance to return value at his currently reduced salary.
Good luck!
Photo via Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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