This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze MLB stacks in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Baltimore Orioles
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS stacks. There’s a split slate today, and on the early slate the top four-man FanDuel stack per the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Baltimore Orioles:
On paper, this isn’t the greatest spot for the Orioles. They are currently implied for a respectable 4.7 runs but are facing Twins pitcher Jose Berrios, who has been dominant in his only two starts this season. What the Orioles do have going for them is their recent Statcast data. All four of the stacked batters have positive exit velocity differentials, and Seth Smith and Chris Davis also have large distance differentials of +20 and +35 feet. Batters with comparable differentials and implied team totals have a historical Plus/Minus of +1.85 on FanDuel (per our Trends tool). It’s possible that the matchup with Berrios could result in somewhat reduced ownership, which Pro Subscribers can review using our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Houston Astros
On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model belongs to the Houston Astros, whose current implied team total of 5.1 runs is the second-highest mark on the slate (per the Vegas Dashboard):
Tigers pitcher Dan Norris has been pedestrian to start the season, owning a 4.81 ERA through his first eight starts and giving up a .354 wOBA to righties. His recent Statcast data isn’t encouraging either: Over his last two starts he’s allowed an average batted ball distance of 217 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and hard hit rate of 55 percent. If the Astros can get past Norris, then they will have an opportunity to leverage their Opponent Bullpen Rating of 85 by facing Detroit’s overworked relievers for extended innings.
Chicago Cubs
There’s currently no total for the Giants-Cubs game, but the Cubs typically smash left-handed pitchers. They have the fifth highest wOBA split this season at .343, and they have the top four-man ISO stack on DraftKings:
This stack is a bit inflated by the ridiculous (and unsustainable) .750 ISO for Ian Happ, but the rest of the batters are no slouches. Albert Almora has a wOBA of .402 and ISO of .274 against lefties, and Kris Bryant has a Consistency Rating of 48.8 percent when facing southpaws. Of course, with Wrigley games there are always wind concerns. Per our Lineups page, there is currently a forecast wind blowing from left field at 14 miles per hour, and comparable conditions have resulted in a Plus/Minus of -0.48 for DraftKings batters. Even against a mediocre lefty in Matt Moore, the ceiling for the Chicago hitters might be somewhat limited in guaranteed prize pools.
Good luck, and be sure to read Bryan Mears’ MLB Breakdown later today!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
