The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chase Burns (R) $10,500 Cincinnati Reds (-121) at San Diego Padres
Just two years removed from being drafted #2 overall, Chase Burns has arrived as a legit big-league ace. With a 2.05 ERA and a strikeout rate just under 30%, he’s in the NL Cy Young conversation and continues to improve throughout the season. Coming into Tuesday, he’s topped 24 DraftKings points in four straight starts and has a great chance to do so again tonight.
While Burns has been a bit lucky from a run-prevention standpoint, he’s due for some positive regression in terms of strikeouts. His swinging strike rate is virtually identical to last year’s, when his strikeout rate was about five percent higher. Those factors broadly even out for DFS, or, if anything, he should be scoring a bit higher than his 23-point average.
He’s also been better on the road, which makes sense given Great American Ball Park’s park factors. Tonight, he’s in San Diego, which is about 6% better for pitchers. That’s not even factoring in the matchup – the Padres rank 28th in wRC+ against righties and 26th in strikeout rate.
In total, that gives us a star pitcher in a pitcher-friendly park with a top-five matchup. It’s hard to ask for much more than that. He leads our median and ceiling projections by a solid margin, with his ownership fairly reasonable, all things considered.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Kai-Wei Teng (R) $6,600 Houston Astros (-125) at Los Angeles Angels
There’s a trio of “cheap-but-scary” value options on the slate based on our projections. One of them – Robert Gasser ($5,500) – I’m staying far away from due to park factors, but the other two we will discuss.
The stronger of those two options is the Astros’ Teng. He’s been largely solid since taking over a starting role, with a 4.00 ERA as a starter this season. However, he’s been inconsistent, with three of his six starts going for at least 25 points and two of them providing negative points, including his most recent outing. He’s also been a bit lucky, with a .237 BABIP and ERA predictors about a run higher than his ERA.
The matchup tonight only furthers the wide range of outcomes for Teng. That’s because the Angels strike out at the highest rate in baseball against righties but are a solid/average offense in run production. Teng is a moderate-strikeout pitcher, but he could get a boost from this matchup – though if he’s not missing bats, things could get ugly in a hurry.
Still, at his price point, he’s more than worth the risk, especially with solid Vegas odds. He leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection and has a 96% Bargain Rating, so his value is fairly clear.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Zach Wheeler (R) $10,700 Philadelphia Phillies (-109) at Toronto Blue Jays
With pitcher projected ownership fairly evenly spread out, I’m not sure you really need to pivot from Burns at the top, but if you were going to, Wheeler is a strong option. He has a similar ERA to Burns, albeit with fewer strikeouts, and the Blue Jays have the lowest strikeout rate in the majors against righties. The only real case for Wheeler is ownership, as he’s about 10% lower than Burns. That’s not enough for me, but for MME play, it makes sense to look his way in some chunk of your rosters.
Dustin May (R) $6,300 St. Louis Cardinals (+109) at New York Mets
The other budget option is Dustin May, who, in some ways, is an inverse version of Teng. His ERA is in the mid-fours, but he’s been fairly unlucky, with ERA indicators in the low threes. He’s also facing a team with a much lower wRC+ in the Mets, as they rank 27th in baseball. They also have a below-average strikeout rate, giving May a tighter range of outcomes than Teng. I prefer Teng thanks to his stronger upside, but there’s a case for May being much more reliable at a cheaper price.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Chicago Cubs:
Park factors, and to a lesser extent, weather, are a major storyline for DFS contests tonight. The Cubs get a huge boost in the former as they travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies at Coors Field.
As we’d expect, they come in with a slate-high seven-run implied total tonight and hitter salaries that are somewhat reasonable, all things considered. They’ve been a top-ten offense against right-handed pitching this season, and it’s not exactly a scary matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano ($5,000).
Sugano has somehow managed a 3.98 ERA despite a 7.52 xERA over 63.1 innings this season. That would be fairly surprising in any circumstance, but doubly so when considering his home ballpark. It also seems extremely unsustainable.
The weather does provide another boost today, with temperatures in the high 80s and winds blowing out to right field. Our sample size of games this hot and windy are fairly small (12 games) at Coors specifically, but we’d expect that to be a considerable boost long term, especially for left-handed hitters, of which this stack has four (counting switch-hitting Ian Happ against a righty). There are some other teams worth stacking tonight as well, but the Cubs are obviously extremely strong.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Shea Langeliers C ($5,200) Athletics vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Robert Gasser)
I mentioned Langeliers yesterday as the best option from the A’s to exploit the ridiculous park factors in Las Vegas, where the A’s are playing a six-game homestand at a AAA ballpark. Those park factors were clearly important as the game finished with a football score, 15-14. Langeliers wasn’t the only hitter to get involved, but he had three hits, including a home run.
The reason I’m so high on Langeliers again is because of his numbers against lefties. He’s one of the few A’s hitters who does their best work against southpaws. PlateIQ makes that easy to visualize:
Obviously team stacks are also an option, though, with the A’s implied for 6.6 runs as the market adjusts to this temporary home stadium.
Brice Turang 2B ($5,400) Milwaukee Brewers at Athletics (J.T. Ginn)
The Brewers have an even higher total than the Athletics tonight at 6.8 runs, just narrowly short of the Cubs for the best on the slate. You really can’t go wrong for hitters on either team, but Turang stands out. He has the strongest projection of any non-Cub hitter on the slate.
This makes sense for a player with a 1.020 OPS against righties taking on a pitcher who is noticeably worse against lefties in J.T. Ginn ($7,700). Ginn is a tougher overall matchup than the Brewers starter – which is why I prefer the Athletics as a team – but it’s an elite spot for Turang considering the park.
Joc Pederson OF ($3,100) Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (Stephen Kolek)
The last weather/park game worth mentioning is Rangers-Royals, where the conditions are forecasted to boost home runs 16% and scoring 23%. Joc Pederson is a solid option for cheap exposure to that game as a low-average, high-power slugger.
He’s facing a pitcher in Stephen Kolek ($8,000) who doesn’t strike out many opponents. More importantly, he’s $3,100 despite the leadoff spot in a lineup implied for a solid 4.7 runs. We probably can’t afford to roster exclusively Athletics/Cubs/Brewers hitters, so taking some savings on Pederson is a solid option.
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Pictured: Chase Burns
Photo Credit: Imagn
