The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Kyle Harrison (L) $10,000 Milwaukee Brewers (-153) vs. Seattle Mariners
The 77-48 Brewers are cruising to an NL Central title in large part due to their pitching and defense, with an NL-low 472 runs allowed this season, or a bit under four per game. Harrison is a big part of that, with a rock-solid 3.47 ERA, slightly better ERA predictors, and a strikeout rate just a tick below 30%.
That makes him a DFS consideration any time he takes the bump, regardless of matchup. With that said, the bull case is even stronger thanks to the matchup with Seattle, which ranks 27th in wRC+ against lefties with a top-ten strikeout rate. Seattle is an above-average unit against righties but suffers a massive drop-off when facing southpaws.
The Mariners 3.5-run total is the lowest on the slate, and Harrison has plenty of strikeout-driven upside, making him the clear best play in terms of median and ceiling projection. However, his five-figure price tag is a bit tricky to fit tonight, with the Dodgers playing at Coors Field and their stack eating a ton of salary.
For that reason, I won’t have Harrison in tighter builds but am interested in him as a contrarian option. By fading the Dodgers and rostering Harrison, you’ll get a double whammy of unique plays, which is important in large-field tournaments.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Eric Lauer (L) $6,000 Los Angeles Dodgers (-187) at Colorado Rockies
Once again, the best pitching value on the slate belongs to a Dodgers lefty against the Rockies. Yesterday it was Blake Snell, who threw six innings of one-run ball at Coors Field, keeping Colorado’s season-long wRC+ against southpaws at 80, the second-worst mark in the league.
Eric Lauer is no Snell, but at just $6,000, he doesn’t really need to be. Still, he’s a bit of a scary selection, with a mid-fours ERA and just a 15.7% strikeout rate. His 52.2% fly-ball rate is well above the league average, which is especially concerning for a game at Coors Field, but the Rockies are bad enough against lefties that it might not matter.
With a fairly wide range of outcomes, it makes sense that his median projection is strong enough to qualify as the Pts/Sal leader. He’ll also be popular, as the savings he provides allow you to stack him with his teammates and build in some extra correlation. Still, I wouldn’t fault anyone for fading him in cash games, as the worst-case scenario is pretty bad here.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Cal Quantrill (R) $7,000 Texas Rangers (-153) vs. Washington Nationals
If you can find the extra $1,000, it’s a bit more comfortable having Cal Quantrill as a budget starting option than Lauer. He has similarly underwhelming strikeout numbers but a solid 3.44 ERA, plus obviously much better park factors in Texas (29th for run scoring) than Lauer in Colorado (1st for run scoring). Washington is a tougher matchup than Colorado, but I weigh the other factors more heavily, especially with the Nationals implied for just 3.7 runs. He’s my preferred cash game budget pitcher.
Bryce Miller (R) $9,500 Seattle Mariners (+130) at Milwaukee Brewers
Bryce Miller is arguably the best starter taking the mound tonight, with a 3.39 ERA and 2.83 xERA. However, he gets a tough matchup against the Brewers, leading to his underdog odds. Miller is risky between the matchup and the fact that his stats are buoyed by a pitcher-friendly home park, but at a $500 discount compared with his opponent, he’s an interesting tournament pivot. Saving $500 in salary and double-digit ownership are enough to take the risk in some chunk of your lineups today.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
Yesterday, I wrote about both the difficulty of affording Ohtani and his massive projection, and he blew through the latter with 40 points on DraftKings. While it’s unfair to expect that again, his 16.45-point median projection trails only Harrison on today’s slate among all players, while leading all hitters by a significant amount.
The Dodgers are the second-best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching and are taking on a righty in Ryan Feltner with a mid-fives ERA, all while playing at the best hitter-friendly park. They’re the clear best stack, though, again, extremely difficult to afford in this iteration.
Your options are effectively to punt at both pitching spots (Lauer and Quantrill, for example, leave just over $2,500 in salary each for the other three hitter spots) or roster some cheaper Dodgers, though outside of #9 hitter Ben Rortvedt ($2,700), nobody is cheaper than $4,600, so there aren’t many savings without fading Ohtani.
I prefer a combination of those approaches while keeping Ohtani a priority and possibly only playing 3-4 Dodgers, especially with some other potentially strong and cheaper mini-stacking options tonight.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Ildemaro Vargas 1B/2B ($3,800) Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox (Ranger Suarez)
One of those cheaper options is the Diamondbacks, who aren’t going to draw any attention thanks to their 3.7-run implied total in a tough matchup against Ranger Suarez. However, Arizona is a top-three team against lefties this season, making them potentially undervalued.
Vargas is emblematic of their extreme platoon splits, with a .230 average against righties and a .333 mark against lefties this season. You can see how strong his numbers are in PlateIQ:
Vargas is priced for the .265 overall hitter he is, rather than his .333 average against lefties in a fairly strong sample size, making him an excellent budget option to fit around Dodgers stacks.
Sam Antonacci 2B/OF ($4,100) Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (Kevin Gausman)
The all-Chicago matchup at Wrigley Field has some elite hitting weather, with home runs boosted by over 50% and overall scoring by 24%. That is if the game plays. The same humid, low-pressure conditions that help the ball fly also bring rain, and our current forecast has about a 50% chance of rain from first pitch to beyond midnight.
That makes both teams risky but also potentially rewarding. The underdog White Sox are implied for just four runs against Kevin Gausman but are an above-average team against righties. Gausman has a mid-fours ERA and a 23.5% strikeout rate, so he’s not an especially imposing matchup.
Antonacci is the likely leadoff hitter in the lineup and represents a good mix of value and upside, but this entry is really about a contrarian White Sox stack in general.
Hunter Goodman C ($5,900) Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Eric Lauer)
Much of the appeal of rostering Lauer is due to the Rockies’ overall awful numbers against lefties. Of course, that doesn’t mean all of their hitters are bad. Catcher Hunter Goodman‘s batting average is about 30 points higher against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers, and he’ll likely be very contrarian thanks to his price tag.
With Lauer likely to catch plenty of ownership, any Rockies hitters that produce will provide double leverage against chalky Lauer/Dodgers combos, making Colorado bats a great option for large-field tournaments. Unfortunately, there aren’t a ton of great ones, but the top three hitters in the order all have at least serviceable numbers against lefties. Plus, the hope is that they chase Lauer early and get some at-bats against right-handed pitching.
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Pictured: Kyle Harrison
Photo Credit: Imagn
