The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Dylan Cease (R) $10,500 Toronto Blue Jays (-147) vs. Boston Red Sox
Dylan Cease not only leads our median and ceiling projections today but is also one of the top Pts/Sal options as his Blue Jays host the Red Sox in an AL East showdown. It’s been a disappointing year overall for the last-place Blue Jays, but Cease is a legitimate Cy Young candidate who has kept them in the Wild Card race with his 2.28 ERA and 4.7 wins above replacement (WAR).
More importantly for DFS, he has a monster 36.4% strikeout rate, the best in the AL and second only to Jacob Misiorowski in the majors. Given the importance of strikeouts in DFS, particularly on DraftKings, it’s easy to see how he averages over 25 DraftKings points per game. Even if Cease performs below his average – which is possible in a somewhat challenging matchup against Boston – he could still be the highest-scoring pitcher on the board.
Boston has been a slightly below-average team against righties this season but should have trade-deadline acquisition Adley Rutschman active tonight, which would boost its lineup. Still, Vegas is firmly on Cease’s side, installing Toronto as a solid favorite and giving Boston a slate-low 3.3-run implied total.
Cease is clearly the best play on paper, but that naturally comes with heavy ownership. I don’t mind eating the chalk in tournaments, but there are other options. Cease, meanwhile, is pretty much a lock in cash games and smaller-field contests.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Mitch Bratt (L) $5,700 Arizona Diamondbacks (-180) vs. Colorado Rockies
One of the two pitchers with a better Pts/Sal projection than Cease is Mitch Bratt, a Diamondbacks lefty whose projection has far more to do with his opponent than his own abilities.
That isn’t to say Bratt has been bad. He enters the game with a 3.90 ERA through his first six career starts and an xERA just slightly higher at 4.04. He also has a 2.41 ERA in AAA this season, so an increase of about 1.5 runs in the majors seems like a fair representation of his abilities. He doesn’t strike out many batters – just 17.2% of hitters since getting called up – but that’s probably fine at a sub-$6,000 price tag.
That could also change against the Rockies, who rank 29th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching while striking out at a top-five rate. They’ve improved somewhat overall, but hitting lefties remains a massive issue, especially outside of Coors Field, where they can’t rely on extremely friendly park factors to provide offense.
Colorado was shut out last night in a theoretically more favorable pitching matchup, so this is a tremendous spot for the noticeably underpriced Bratt. He’s an excellent complement to Cease because the average salary between them is somewhat low, and Bratt’s low ownership makes him an interesting option in any lineup construction.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Nick Lodolo (L) $6,300 Cincinnati Reds (+136) at Chicago White Sox
The other starter with a Pts/Sal mark better than Cease is Lodolo, who is returning from a stint on the IL to take on the White Sox. It’s always tricky when pitchers come back from injury. We could attribute their previous poor performance to the injury – thus justifying an upgrade – or downgrade them because they might not be at full strength. I don’t have a strong opinion on which consideration is more relevant to Lodolo tonight, though he faces a fairly tough matchup. However, we’re getting the standard post-injury discount after he was routinely priced in the $7,000 range, so he’s somewhat underpriced.
Hunter Brown (R) $9,300 Houston Astros (-187) at San Francisco Giants
Houston’s Hunter Brown is another pitcher who has missed time due to injury this season, though he’s been back since mid-June. Brown is having a bit of a down year compared to his last couple of seasons, but that’s likely a result of the nagging issues that caused him to miss time. Still, he has a mid-threes ERA and a mid-20s strikeout rate on top of a great matchup. The Giants’ full-season offensive numbers aren’t bad, but they traded away most of their best bats at the deadline and have been shut out twice in the last week. This is an ideal spot for Brown to shine, and with projected ownership roughly half that of Cease, he’s an interesting tournament pivot.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
Perhaps I should’ve been more excited about the Diamondbacks yesterday, when they opened their home series against the Rockies with a nine-run performance. Tonight, they’re implied for the second-highest mark on the slate at 5.6 runs as they face Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano ($5,500).
Sugano has an ERA in the mid-fours this season, but his xERA is north of seven – a surprising gap for a starter who plays his home games at the worst park for pitchers in baseball. With xERA attempting to account for park factors, we’d expect those numbers to be reversed.
For Sugano, that means he’s been both bad and very lucky this season, with major negative regression looming. Arizona again has fairly reasonable prices overall, so if the Diamondbacks can cash in on some of that regression, they’ll be slate winners for the second day in a row.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Junior Carminero 3B ($6,500) Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics (Mason Barrett)
I’m once again more excited about Tampa Bay, which, like Arizona, had an excellent day yesterday, scoring ten runs against the A’s in Sacramento. Much of that success is obviously due to the park factors. Since it began hosting MLB games last season, Sutter Health Park has trailed only Coors Field as the best hitter’s park in baseball.
The Rays have a slate-leading six-run total tonight, and Caminero has the best numbers against right-handed pitching on the team:
He’s expensive, but there are some value pitchers we can use to lessen the load, so it’s not impossible to afford him. His projection of 13+ points also stands out. Unfortunately, we can only roster two of Diaz, Aranda, and Caminero for positional reasons, but I’ll mix and match two of the three across lineups.
Jeff McNeil 1B/2B ($2,700) Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Nick Martinez)
Jeff McNeil goes a long way toward aiding my quest to load up on bats from the game in Sacramento. He’s not only eligible at two positions – including second base, which is somewhat thin today – but also just $2,700. He’s also projecting to lead off in the A’s lineup, making him a massive value.
His .254 batting average isn’t even all that bad, and simply getting on base in front of the A’s power hitters with Oakland implied for 4.7 runs gives him some solid upside. He’s one of the best Pts/Sal bats on the slate.
Tyler O’Neil OF ($2,700) Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins (Bailey Ober)
I was forced to describe McNeil as “one of” the best Pts/Sal plays on the slate, specifically because of O’Neill, who leads all hitters in that category. He’s Baltimore’s cleanup hitter on a night when the Orioles are implied for 4.8 runs against a pitcher with a mid-fours ERA this season.
O’Neill is technically a slightly above-average bat by wRC+, with a 102 mark, though his .215 average is somewhat ugly. He packs some power, though, with a .405 slugging percentage. That makes him a high-upside, boom-or-bust tournament option tonight.
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Pictured: Dylan Cease
Photo Credit: Imagn
