The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Freddy Peralta ($10,300) Milwaukee Brewers (-242) at Chicago White Sox
The ideal scenario for a DFS pitcher is somebody who has good numbers and a good matchup. Most days we’re forced to settle for one or the other — but not today. Freddy Peralta has a 2.43 ERA and a 26.5% strikeout rate — and he gets to take on the White Sox.
Chicago has a slate-low 3.2 run implied total, and Milwaukee is the heaviest moneyline favorite on the slate. That’s an ideal combination and enough to justify the five-figure price tag. Peralta leads the slate in median projection, so it’s understandable that we’re paying a high price for him.
Of course, we could poke some minor holes in the outlook for Peralta. The White Sox have improved their batting stats as a team from awful to merely bad, and his 26.5% strikeout rate is good but short of elite. However, those are minor quibbles. Peralta is a rock-solid play, and the reasons to fade him are more about ownership and salary than a lack of scoring potential.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Bryce Miller ($8,200) Seattle Mariners (-185) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Miller has similar Vegas data overall as Peralta, with the Angels implied for just 0.1 more runs than the White Sox. That makes him an obvious value at more than $2,000 cheaper, despite being a lesser pitcher overall.
Miller has a 4.21 ERA this season, but underlying numbers are in the mid-threes. That’s surprising given his home ballpark, as typically Mariners pitchers have an actual ERA somewhat lower than their (park-adjusted) expected stats.
He’s home tonight at T-Mobile Park, where scoring is suppressed 17% from the league average. That’s the biggest factor in his projection, since the Angels aren’t a terrible offense by any stretch. Their 90 wRC+ ranks 23rd in baseball so we still want to target them — but target them selectively.
Miller doesn’t bring massive upside, but he’s the best Pts/Sal option on the slate. That makes him a great cash game play, with some limited GPP appeal.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Garret Crochet ($10,500) Boston Red Sox (-135) at Toronto Blue Jays
Crochet is a pretty obvious — but scary — GPP pivot from Peralta if you’re spending up on pitching. He has better numbers, particularly in the strikeout department, but a much tougher matchup against the Blue Jays.
Toronto has underperformed as an offense overall this season, with a major caveat: they crush lefties. They have a 139 wRC+ against southpaws, good for third in the majors. That’s a big concern for the left-handed Crochet.
Of course, good pitching tends to beat good hitting, and Crochet is certainly a good pitcher. He has a 1.95 ERA so far this season and a strikeout rate just under 30%. He also plays home games at Fenway Park — the second-best hitter’s park in baseball — making tonight’s road contest a moderate upgrade.
The price premium we’re paying should keep his ownership very reasonable, making him an excellent GPP leverage option. I’ll be well overweight on the field on him tonight.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
Get used to seeing the Braves in this spot, as they have a road series at Coors Field in Colorado. For the second straight day, they lead the slate in implied total by a solid margin, with a massive 6.6 mark.
Yesterday they scored “only” six runs, which somehow felt like a disappointment. That was a tougher pitching matchup, though. Today they draw German Marquez ($5,000), whose slate-low salary is certainly an indication of how this game is likely to go.
Marquez has an ERA over 9.00 this season, with his underlying numbers around 5.00. Crucially, he only strikes out 14% of his opponents, and balls in play at Coors turn into a problem quickly.
It’s obviously difficult to afford the Braves’ full stack today, but they’re an excellent option if you can make it work.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Wyatt Langford OF ($5,000) Texas Rangers vs. Athletics (Jacob Lopez)
I’m sticking to my guns on Langford, who went 0-4 yesterday in what seemed like a good matchup on paper. Today looks even better, as lefty reliever Jacob Lopez ($6,000) draws a spot start for the A’s. Here’s a reminder of Langford’s numbers against lefties courtesy of PlateIQ:
Obviously in the small sample size of one baseball game there’s no guarantee, but I’m playing the numbers here. Especially against a pitcher with a fly ball rate over 60% the last two seasons.
William Contreras ($4,400) Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago White Sox (Tyler Gilbert)
After a slow start to the season, Contreras is still a buy-low candidate. He’s started to turn it around recently, carrying a seven-game hit streak into Tuesday’s contest. However, his salary is still down considerably from early in the season.
He has a great matchup against the left-handed Gilbert, a journeyman with a career 4.35 ERA and worse underlying numbers. Contreras does his best work against lefties, with a career .931 OPS. He’s also reasonably priced for his cleanup spot in the Brewers lineup, as they’re implied for a solid five runs.
Max Muncy 3B ($2,900) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins (Sandy Alcantara)
We have to save salary somewhere on Tuesday’s slate, so we might as well take a flier on a player from a good offense. That’s the argument for Muncy, whose Dodgers are the fourth team implied for five or more runs tonight.
They’re taking on Sandy Alcantara ($7,000), who has struggled this year after returning from Tommy John surgery. He has a 6.56 ERA through five starts and just a 17% strikeout rate.
Muncy has also struggled, but he’s due for some regression. His hard-hit rate is slightly above his career average, and he has a career slugging percentage of .469. I suspect he’ll break out of his slump at some point, and I want to have some exposure when he does.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Freddy Peralta
Photo Credit: Imagn
