The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
The MLB has a dozen games lined up for Friday night, as the regular season continues with a busy night of fantasy baseball that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Freddy Peralta ($9,300) Milwaukee Brewers (-102) at Baltimore Orioles
Peralta was originally scheduled to start on Thursday against the Reds but was pushed back to Friday after the game was rained out. With the extra day of rest, he’ll look to continue his early-season form. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all starting pitchers on Friday in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest in THE BAT X projections.
Peralta racked up 15 strikeouts in his first two games this season, allowing four runs on five hits. He was dominant in his road start against the Mets on Opening Day, earning 30.3 DraftKings points. He allowed just three Mariners to reach base in the first five innings of his second start but then struggled in the sixth inning and ended up giving up three runs.
Peralta had an excellent 11.4 K/9 rate last year while going 12-10 in 30 starts. He’s being asked to step up as the team’s ace after the off-season trade of Corbin Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff (shoulder). So far, he has looked up to the task.
Peralta’s strikeout upside is high enough to back him at this salary even in a less-than-ideal matchup against the Orioles.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Paul Blackburn ($7,600) Oakland Athletics (-135) vs. Washington Nationals
Blackburn has yet to allow a run this season, and he’s in a good matchup at home against the Nationals. The A’s are actually favored, which is a rarity, and the Nationals have the fourth-lowest implied run total of all the teams on the slate.
He started his strong run back in Spring Training when he allowed no runs in his last two appearances. He went a combined 11 and 2/3 scoreless in those two exhibitions against the Cubs and Giants, with nine strikeouts, and he allowed just two hits. Once the games counted, he threw seven shutout innings in a no-decision against the Guardians and followed that with six shutout innings in Detroit in his most recent start. He got the win in that outing and earned 23.7 DKFP. In his 13 innings, he has seven strikeouts and has allowed just six hits.
Blackburn has posted an ERA over 4.25 in each of the last three seasons, so this may not be a trend that lasts a long time, but he should be able to keep it rolling for one more start since he faces the Nats. Washington’s offense ranks in the bottom 10 in the MLB in batting average, home runs, ISO, and wRC+. In 12 games, they have averaged 3.8 runs per game.
Even though he doesn’t offer a sky-high ceiling since his strikeouts aren’t usually very numerous, Blackburn’s recent form and strong matchup make him a solid value from the pitchers priced under $8,000.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Brandon Pfaadt ($7,500) Arizona Diamondbacks (-118) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
If you can afford more risk in your GPP lineup and are looking for higher upside than Blackburn’s, check out Pfaadt, who has electric stuff but hasn’t quite been able to put it all together at the MLB level yet.
Pfaadt was an elite prospect for the Diamondbacks but struggled to a 3-9 record in 19 games in his first taste of the MLB, posting a 5.72 ERA and 5.18 FIP with an 8.8 K/9 last season. In Spring Training, he continued to show upside but gave up too many big innings.
His mixed results have spilled over to his first two starts of the season, and he has a 5.06 ERA but only a 2.84 FIP through his first 10 and 2/3 innings. He was knocked around in his last start against Atlanta, allowing five runs in 5 and 2/3 innings. However, even in that game, there were some signs of success. He got a career-high 20 swinging strikes on 87 pitches and had seven strikeouts. He now has 13 strikeouts on the season for a 10.97 K/9, which shows how high his ceiling could be if things start to bounce his way a little bit.
On Friday, he’s at home against the Cardinals, which should be a much better matchup for him than the Braves. He won his first home start with five effective innings against the Rockies and will look to have a similar result on Friday.
While the dominant numbers haven’t quite been there, he has shown better control and poise and continues to showcase plenty of strikeout potential. That gives him a high ceiling for a play under $8,000 on Friday.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The top four in the Dodgers’ lineup make a great stack, as they take on Michael King ($8,000) and the Padres at home. King has allowed five runs in 14 and 1/3 innings while issuing 11 walks. Ten of those walks have come against lefties, who have a .363 wOBA against him this season. Both home runs he has allowed have come to right-handed batters though.
Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani are both strong plays at the top of the lineup and have the third and second-highest ceiling projections of all hitters in both THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs Projections. Will Smith is much cheaper by comparison and also comes at a position of scarcity, making him a key play at catcher on this slate.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Ronald Acuña Jr. ($6,500) Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (Trevor Rogers)
The Braves are also a great alternative stack, as they visit the Marlins and take on lefty Trevor Rogers. In that matchup, Acuña has the highest ceiling projection of all hitters in the aggregated projections.
He broke through with three stolen bases and 32 DraftKings points on Wednesday. He’s hitting just .233 in his 11 games this season but now has four stolen bases.
Acuña looks primed for a breakout performance in both projections since he is 4-for-8 in his career against Rogers with four walks, two doubles, and a home run. He always seems to thrash the Marlins, and he also has strong splits against left-handed pitchers.
He isn’t the only Braves’ hitter who is a strong play in this matchup against a lefty. Check out how impressive the Braves look against lefties over this season and last season in the PlateIQ tool:
3B Abraham Toro ($2,700) Oakland Athletics vs. Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)
Toro has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters in the aggregated projections. He has moved into the lead-off spot in the lineup for the Athletics for the last four games, going 6-for-17 (.353) with three runs scored. From the lead-off spot, he has more chances for at-bats and run production.
The switch-hitter should have a spot in the order against both righties and lefties now that Brent Rooker (ribs) landed on the 10-day IL. He and J.D. Davis had been platooning, but both should be in Friday night’s lineup against Jake Irvin. Irvin does have some value potential himself but has struggled against lefties in his career, allowing a .280 batting average, 14 home runs and a .369 wOBA.
Toro typically doesn’t bring elite power or speed production, but his above-average contact tool at the top of the order makes him a good bargain play Friday.
SS David Hamilton ($2,600) Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
Another bargain option in the infield is Red Sox rookie David Hamilton, who will try not to throw away his shot as he fills in for Trevor Story (shoulder). Hamilton has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters in the aggregate projections behind just Toro and Lenyn Sosa of the White Sox.
Hamilton’s fantasy value comes mostly from his elite speed. At Double-A in 2022, he stole 70 bases in 119 games, and last year, he swiped 57 bags at Triple-A. He stole his first base of the season on Thursday against the Orioles and finished with eight DraftKings points. If he can get on base, he should be able to wreak havoc from the bottom of the Red Sox lineup, and he could be on base ahead of the top of the order, at which point he should have a chance to score some runs in high-scoring games at Fenway.
He is more boom-or-bust than Toro since he isn’t hitting lead off and doesn’t make contact as well as Toro, but he has a higher ceiling since he does have one elite category that can make him a bargain play if he gets a chance to run on Friday night.
