The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Paul Skenes ($9,700) Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) vs. Chicago Cubs
Sometimes we don’t need to overthink it. Such is the case today, with reigning NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes taking the mound against the Cubs.
Skenes has posted slightly worse numbers this season with a 2.39 ERA after finishing 2024 below 2.00. However, all of his underlying numbers are better than they were during his rookie campaign, and he continues to miss bats at a high rate. His 12.9% swinging strike rate is excellent and more than supports his 27.5% strikeout rate.
The matchup with the Cubs isn’t ideal, as they’re a top-ten offense against righties with a slightly below-average strikeout rate. However, Skenes just posted 33.25 points in a matchup against the Dodgers in his last start, so matchups don’t matter all that much.
He also saw his salary decrease after that performance — likely due to his low ownership in the perceived tough matchup — making this something of a “buy low” spot for him. He leads our median and ceiling projections by a wide margin and is tied for the lead in Pts/Sal.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Colin Rea ($6,200) Chicago Cubs (+124) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The rest of the Pts/Sal leaders (there are five total options with roughly the same projection) are, to varying degrees, questionable pitchers who either have strong matchups or a low enough price tag to be worth taking a chance on. One of those is Rea, who pitches against Paul Skenes and the Pirates tonight.
Rea has a 0.96 ERA so far this season but has split time between starting and the bullpen. He’s also a career 4.43 ERA pitcher, and at 34 years old is unlikely to have suddenly made that massive of a leap. With an xERA and SIERA both around 3.50, we’re almost certainly due for some major regression at some point.
However, that point might not be tonight. Pittsburgh ranks 27th in wRC+ against righties, and they have a middling 4.2 run implied total. That’s not an elite mark, but relative to his $6,200 salary, it’s very strong.
Rea will likely be fairly unpopular since most rosters will be playing Skenes, and players don’t want to block themselves from securing two win bonuses. The leverage and savings might be worth it, though.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Shane Baz ($9,000) Tampa Bay Rays (-150) vs. Kansas City Royals
One player whose 2025 breakout might be sustainable is the Rays’ Shane Baz. The 26-year-old had just 120 innings of big league experience prior to the season but has been one of the top pitchers in the game this year.
He comes into the contest with a 2.45 ERA and 31.6% strikeout rate, with underlying numbers that more or less support his results. Especially considering his BABIP is actually higher than his career mark this season, he’s not exactly a negative regression candidate.
The Royals are probably better as an offense than their 29th rank in wRC+ would imply, but they’re still far from a team we’re looking to avoid rostering pitchers against. Their 3.6 run implied total is just slightly off the lowest mark on the slate.
The real appeal for Baz is, of course, the strikeouts. That’s a bit more problematic since the Royals strike out at a fairly low rate. Still, it’s a smaller slate at seven games, and he could easily post one of the top scores even without a huge strikeout number. He’s an excellent GPP option at manageable ownership tonight.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers:
There are some mild weather concerns for the game between the Brewers and White Sox, but that might be the only concern for the Milwaukee offense.
They have the best implied total on the slate as they take on Sean Burke ($5,000), who brings a 6.00 ERA and somehow worse underlying numbers into the day. The Brewers are a slightly above-average overall offense against righties, and most of this stack is on the stronger side of their platoon splits.
Plus, their all-around reasonable salaries make it possible to play two of the better pitchers on the slate. We can’t ask for much more than that.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game, and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Wyatt Langford OF ($5,000) Texas Rangers vs. Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
We have yet another matchup between the Rangers and an A’s southpaw starter, the third of the week. Langford has had mixed results in the two prior versions, putting up 15 DraftKings points in one of the games and 0 in the other.
However, his overall numbers against lefties remain excellent, as we can see in PlateIQ:
I’m more than happy to go back to that well against Jeffrey Springs ($7,100) and his 6.04 ERA on the season. In defense of Springs, his ERA predictors are mostly in the mid-fours — but that’s still not great.
Masyn Winn SS ($3,200) St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
This game has more significant weather concerns, though it seems like they should be able to get the game in with a slight delay. That’s less of an issue — and possibly even a benefit — to hitters, since it disrupts the pitching staff so much.
Winn is a strong value today, since he’s set to hit second in the Cardinals’ lineup at just $3,200. Assuming they can get the game in, Great American Ball Park is one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball, so I want some exposure to the game in some form.
Chandler Simpson OF ($3,500) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals (Seth Lugo)
Another solid value play is Chandler Simpson of the Rays. He’s underpriced due to his role as the projected leadoff hitter for Tampa, whose 4.8-run implied total is just off the mark for the slate lead.
The rookie is hitting .300 through 43 MLB plate appearances, with three steals across those ten games. He projects as a very good contact hitter with elite speed, a perfect leadoff hitter profile.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out Fanatics Sportsbook and use our Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.
Pictured: Paul Skenes
Photo Credit: Getty Images
