The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Cristopher Sanchez ($8,200) Philadelphia Phillies (-225) at Washington Nationals
Heading into the 2025 season, Sanchez had been a consistently solid pitcher, but a step or two shy from elite. The early results this year have him approaching the latter category, though. He comes into Wednesday with a 3.42 ERA but underlying numbers below three, and more importantly for DFS a 29.5% strikeout rate.
That strikeout rate could be even higher based on his 15.1% swinging strike rate, so he’s largely earned that increase in production. That’s reflected in the Vegas Lines for today, which have the Nats implied for just 3.1 runs and the Phillies as the largest favorites on the slate.
Washington has been bad against lefties this season, with a 74 wRC+ and a 24.8% strikeout rate. We’ve also got good strong pitching weather that reduces scoring by more than 12%. Getting all of that for just $8,200 makes Sanchez an elite price-considered play tonight.
He leads our models in median and ceiling projection while checking in second in Pts/Sal.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Noah Cameron ($4,000) Kansas City Royals (+152) at Tampa Bay Rays
The only thing stopping Sanchez from leading the Pts/Sal projections today is the presence of a stone minimum-priced pitcher, Noah Cameron. The 25-year-old lefty is making his MLB debut tonight, after striking out over 30% of the hitters he faced over 22.1 innings in AAA this season.
Cameron is expected to be used as a traditional starter tonight, not just an opener, which makes his price tag a steal. While I wouldn’t expect him to last deep into the game, three of his five AAA starts this season have gone at least five innings. Plus, his excellent strikeout rate proves he obviously has MLB-level stuff.
It’s always a risk taking a mostly unheralded prospect in their MLB debut, but I don’t mind taking risks at $4,000. Especially against the Rays, a bottom-ten team against lefties. Tampa’s 4.7-run implied total is a bit scary, but we don’t need a ton from Cameron at his salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Drew Rasmussen ($8,800) Tampa Bay Rays (-184) vs. Kansas City Royals
I was somewhat surprised to learn that the leader in K% on Wednesdays’ slate (including 2024 and 2025 stats) was the Rays’ Rasmussen. That comes with a slight asterisk, since he was primarily used as a reliever last season, but it’s still an encouraging stat.
This year, since switching to full-time starting duty, he’s posted a still strong 27.8% strikeout rate and an ERA of just 2.10. As we might expect from a former reliever, his starts have been on the shorter side, though, as he’s yet to complete six innings in a single game.
The matchup with the Royals could change that, though. Kansas City is implied for just 3.5 runs, and they rank 29th in the MLB for wRC+ against righties. They also don’t strike out a ton, which is a solid recipe for a pitcher lasting deep into a game.
Which he’ll need to do to justify his salary against a low-strikeout team. While Sanchez is the better overall play on paper, Rasmussen is a solid GPP pivot at lower projected ownership.
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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the New York Yankees:
Unlike previous days this week, it’s actually fairly easy to afford the slate’s top stack. Outside of Aaron Judge, the Yankees are very fairly priced — especially relative to their 4.8-run implied total.
The Yankees exploded for 15 runs last night against the Orioles and arguably have a better matchup today. They’re taking on Cade Povich ($5,500), a lefty with a 5.16 ERA (and slightly higher xERA) over the last two seasons.
The Yankees have the best overall wRC+ in baseball, but an even better team number against southpaws. I see no reason not to stack them tonight — outside of ownership. They’ll likely be very popular.
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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Joc Pederson OF ($2,400) Texas Rangers vs. Athletics (Luis Severino)
While I typically focus on the hitter side of the equation in PlateIQ, the pitcher stats were more notable for Luis Severino tonight:
That’s a lot of red in the “Vs L” columns, both this season and last season. Enough that I’m willing to take a shot on Pederson, a low-batting-average power hitter. At $2,400 we aren’t risking much if he doesn’t score, and he’s also projecting to hit third in the Rangers lineup. That makes him underpriced relative to their 4.8-run total.
Jarren Duran OF ($5,200) Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (Yariel Rodriguez)
It looks like it’s going to be a bullpen game for the Blue Jays tonight, with Yariel Rodriguez ($6,000) getting his first start after making ten bullpen appearances. That’s probably a good thing for Boston, who have already scored 23 runs over the past two games.
It starts at the top with Duran, who has broken out of his early season slump to average more than 14 points per game over his last seven. I’m interested in the top of the Boston lineup in general, but Duran is my favorite one-off play.
Yandy Diaz 3B ($3,900) Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals (Noah Cameron)
While I’ll be playing Cameron in some of my lineups tonight, I’m also looking to leverage off of him in other spots. A debuting pitcher is an inherently high-variance spot, since we don’t know if Cameron’s stuff will translate to the major leagues.
Diaz is the obvious choice there, as he’s a career .308 hitter against lefties and is batting first in their lineup. The market is fairly bullish on the Rays’ chances with their 4.7 run total, making his $3,900 salary a relative bargain.
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Pictured: Aaron Judge
Photo Credit: Getty Images
