The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features a 9-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Gerrit Cole ($9,800) New York Yankees (-160) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Cole is a pretty obvious choice here. He leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs median and ceiling projections after an 11-strikeout, 36.5 DraftKings points performance in his 2022 debut. He won’t strike out that many every time, but he’s topped a 32% strikeout rate in each of the past five seasons.
The Phillies aren’t a poor offense by any stretch, but Cole isn’t a pitcher where we worry about the matchup. His underlying metrics continue to be just as good or better than his box score production, with no signs of slowing down in his age-32 season.
He could have a slightly longer leash this time around as well, though his 95 pitches on opening day were fairly high by the first start of the season standards.
He’s an excellent play in all contest types.
MLB DFS Value Picks
Christian Javier ($8,100) Houston Astros (-275) vs. Detroit Tigers
While the Tigers ended up with six runs yesterday against the Astros, they still produced a very strong score for Houston’s starter. Detroit struck out nine times in seven innings yesterday, and Javier is better at missing bats than his teammate Valdez.
This is still a matchup we want to exploit, with Detroit implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs. Javier is cheap enough that we can live with a few earned runs against, so long as he keeps missing bats. He topped a 30% strikeout rate in each of the past two seasons and has a career ERA of just 3.08.
Javier is second in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs Pts/Sal projection, trailing only the minimum-priced Grayson Rodriguez ($4,00)
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Jacob deGrom ($9,500) Texas Rangers (-190) vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Rangers ace is projecting behind only Cole today but is expected to carry considerably less ownership. He’s in just as good of a spot, though, with Baltimore implied for only 3.2 runs against him and the Rangers.
The Orioles’ bats have been hot to start the season, but this is a much tougher pitching matchup for them. deGrom got knocked around a bit in his season debut, giving up five runs in 3.2 innings to the Phillies. However, he was a victim of some bad breaks, with FIP and xFIP (fielding independent pitching) marks of 2.95 and 1.74, respectively.
He also still managed to pick up seven strikeouts, salvaging his day from a DFS perspective. If he can get some more support from his defense, he’ll be in line for a massive day. He could be paired with Cole if you’re able to find some cheap bats but is also an excellent pivot for tournaments.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays:
Picking on Patrick Corbin ($6,000) might be the real national pastime at this point, with his ERA at 5.82 or higher since 2021. The Rays are the lucky team that gets to face him today, with a righty-heavy top of the lineup that should have no problem with the southpaw.
Tampa is implied for a slate-leading 5.4 runs and are also on the road in Washington. With winds blowing out to left field, right-handed hitters are in an especially good spot today. They’re far too cheap on DraftKings considering their Vegas Data and matchup and fit nicely if going with two pricier pitchers today.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Mike Brosseau 1B/3B ($2,200 DraftKings; $2,300 FanDuel) Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets (David Peterson)
Brosseau is currently expected to hit first in the Brewers lineup, making him a screaming value at his near-minimum price on both sites. The Brewers are implied for a solid 4.4 runs against Peterson and the Mets, a matchup that doesn’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of opposing hitters. Peterson is solid but has a career ERA of 4.20.
Brosseau is far from a superstar, but he’s hit left-handed pitching much better than right in his career. He has a .350 wOBA against southpaws, compared to just .287 vs. right-handed pitching. That’s why the Brewers are using him as a platoon option against lefties and why we should consider doing the same.
His teammate William Contreras C ($3,900 DraftKings; $2,700 FanDuel) is another excellent option against Peterson, with similar lefty/righty splits.
LaMont Wade Jr. 1B/OF ($3,500 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) San Francisco Giants at Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease)
Wade is another projected leadoff hitter who’s a bit too cheap, especially on FanDuel, where he has a 74% Bargain Rating. Cease is on the tougher side in terms of pitching matchups, but that’s why Wade is coming so cheap.
Wade is also a player who could benefit from the new rules enabling base-stealing. He has good-but-not-great speed and was unlikely to get many green lights under the old rules. With a high walk rate (both his and Cease’s as a pitcher) and a leadoff spot in the order, that’s worth targeting this season.
Jeremy Pena SS ($5,100 DraftKings; $3,100 FanDuel) Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers (Eduardo Rodriguez)
Pena has a solid combination of power and speed, with 22 homers and 11 stolen bases in his 2022 rookie season. He hit especially well against lefties, with his batting average nearly 80 points higher. That’s a good thing for his prospects today since he’s taking on the Tigers lefty “ace” Eduardo Rodriguez.
Rodriguez was bad last year for the Tigers, and not a ton better to start 2023. His low strikeout rates in Detroit are a boost to the free-swinging Pena as well. He’s a bit hard to fit from a salary standpoint (especially on DraftKings), but that should keep him at fairly low ownership, making him a solid GPP option.
