The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jacob Misiorowski (R) $12,000 Milwaukee Brewers (-219) at New York Mets
You probably don’t need to be sold on the merits of Misiorowski, the runaway NL Cy Young favorite who also has a perfect profile for DFS and is averaging 28.7 points per game on DraftKings. Misiorowksi’s average fastball is over 100 mph at this point, and he’s maintained an absurd 39.3% strikeout rate through 24 starts, with an ERA below 2.00.
The question is whether or not he will be worth his $12,000 price tag, which seems to be the maximum salary DraftKings will ever give a pitcher. The combination of maximum salary and high ownership make him a somewhat tough proposition. For him to pay off, not only would he need to have the highest score on the slate, but he’d also need to finish well ahead of the other pitchers.
With that said, our projections have him likely to do just that. His median projection is around five points ahead of any other starter as he takes on a bottom-five Mets offense that is implied for just 2.9 runs. It doesn’t seem like Milwaukee has him on any sort of limited pitch count as they prepare for the playoffs, as he’s thrown at least 94 pitches in each of his last three starts after a short period post-All-Star break where he had a shorter leash. That might be the one thing that could slow him down from a fantasy perspective.
With just five games on Thursday evening’s slate, it’s hard to get around Misiorowski in cash games and smaller tournaments. I’ll have a chunk of my lineups built differently for GPPs, but purely for ownership reasons.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Jose Cabrera (R) $5,000 Arizona Diamondbacks (-113) at San Francisco Giants
One of the reasons we’re projecting such high ownership for Misiorowski is the presence of Cabrera (and one other pitcher) as cheap options that allow you to balance out your pitching salary spend. The Diamondbacks rookie is getting called back up to the majors after spending most of the last two months in AAA and comes in with the minimum price for a true starter.
Most of the analysis here boils down to “look how cheap he is,” as nothing about Cabrera’s numbers are especially exciting. His ERA was over 5.00 in his four MLB starts earlier this season, with just a 14.8% strikeout rate. He isn’t/wasn’t a top prospect by any stretch, though it’s fair to expect some improvement given his limited MLB experience. The matchup isn’t especially easy, either, with the Giants a slightly above-average unit against righties.
He’s cheap though, and the market is giving him a reasonable chance here. Both teams in this game are implied for right around four runs, with Arizona a slight favorite. If Cabrera could give you a serviceable 10 points — a bit under our median projection — alongside a 30+ point score from Misiorowski, you’d take it and still have plenty of salary left for hitters. He leads all pitchers in Pts/Sal projection.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Chris Sale (L) $10,200 Atlanta Braves (-115) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
In nearly any matchup, it would be a no brainer to pivot from Misiorowski to Chris Sale, since you’re saving nearly $2,000 in salary and getting lower ownership while still getting an elite pitcher. This isn’t any matchup, though; this is the worst possible matchup for a southpaw starter. Sale is obviously good enough to shine against any lineup, but the Dodgers are the best offense in baseball, and his ownership projection isn’t that much below Misiorowski’s. He still projects well and I’ll have some exposure, but I’d rather find the extra salary for Misiorowski when I can.
Noah Cameron (L) $6,900 Kansas City Royals (-113) at Toronto Blue Jays
We have a great “pay up to be contrarian” value option in Cameron, who is more expensive than Cabrera but projecting for single-digit ownership. He also brings considerably more upside, with a low-fours ERA and 20% strikeout rate. Those aren’t great numbers, but they’re good enough for a sub-$7,000 pitcher, especially in this matchup. Toronto ranks dead last in wRC+ against lefties, a significant boost to the Royals southpaw.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the New York Yankees:
The story so far this week has been high totals throughout the slate, giving us plenty of offensive options to choose form. That shifts tonight, as the Yankees lead the slate with a 4.5-run total for their home game against the Astros.
They have what I would describe as a fairly typical matchup against the Astros Hayden Wesneski ($6,600), who comes into the contest with an ERA in the low fours and slightly better underlying numbers. They have somewhat favorable hitting weather but not a huge boost — and it’s also worth making sure the rain stays away long enough to get this game in if you’re rostering them.
All of which means we should expect a roughly typical performance from the Yankees, which isn’t a negative. The top of their lineup tends to hit righties well, with four straight left-handed bats. You could even swap out #5 hitter George Lombard for another lefty if you want to fully play the platoon splits game against a righty starter. Wesneski has fairly balanced numbers against left- and right-handed hitters so I’m not sure that’s totally needed, but it’s an option.
More importantly, we don’t really have any clear better options, with the other top offense on the slate (Dodgers) taking on an elite starter. That’s enough for me on a small slate.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Andrew Vaughn 1B/3B ($3,500) Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
The Brewers are taking on the Mets and left-hander Sean Manaea ($7,100), who has a mediocre 4.31 ERA and slightly higher xERA and FIP marks. Milwaukee struggles somewhat against left-handed pitching on the whole, but as always, we can use PlateIQ to find some exceptions:
Vaughn clearly stands out, especially relative to his salary, with the added benefit of being eligible at multiple positions. With Manaea also considerably worse against righties, it’s the perfect situation for Vaughn, who provides both upside and some much-needed salary relief and can fit around nearly any stack.
Carter Jensen C ($4,100) Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays (Spencer Arrigheti)
The Royals’ 4.4-run implied total trails only the Yankees, and by just 0.1 runs. That makes them an interesting stack, especially in a matchup with Spencer Arrigheti ($6,300). His ERA and underlying numbers are all right around 5.00, and he’s specifically struggled against lefties, allowing a .364 wOBA compared to .263 against righties.
The lefty-hitting Jensen has an OPS about 50 points higher against righties and is the rare catcher who also bats leadoff. Getting a catcher at the top of the lineup on the road in a solid platoon-split scenario is a perfect storm, and it would also make sense to do a mini-stack with other Kansas City left-handed bats.
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Pictured: Jacob Misiorowski
Photo Credit: Imagn
