Projecting line play — or the line’s impact on fantasy scoring — is one of the more challenging tasks in all of DFS.
While quantitative measures exist, they can be lacking to an extent. On the player level, grading services like Pro Football Focus are notoriously challenged with offensive line play. It’s difficult to know which member of a line blew an assignment on a sack, for example.
Things are a bit easier on the team level, as assessing the unit’s overall success is more practical.
However, we’ll still be taking a glance at qualitative sources. Including Action Network’s Brandon Anderson ranking all 32 NFL offensive lines. On the defensive side, PFF’s defensive line rankings will be the main source.
We also have projected sacks in our NFL Player Models.
The Data
With six weeks of data under our belt, we now have matchup-adjusted figures. One effect of that is that it smoothes the data at the edges — the highs aren’t quite as high and the lows aren’t quite as low. The bigger impact, though, is that the data is considerably more reliable as a measure of per-play efficiency, making it more useful for DFS.
Strong Offensive Line Matchups
Los Angeles Rams OL (#1 in Adjusted Line Yards, #5 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Las Vegas Raiders DL
If this game plays out the way the spread reflects, with the Rams controlling the action, we could be in for an ideal fantasy environment. Los Angeles has the best run-blocking mismatch on the slate by a comfortable margin, while their opponent, the Raiders, have the best pass-blocking matchup.
That’s a great setup for Rams back Kyren Williams ($7,000), who is already somewhat underpriced as the RB6 in DraftKings points on the season. He curiously lost a big chunk of work to Blake Corum ($5,000) last week, with Williams getting 10 carries to Corum’s nine, but was still in for over 70% of the Rams’ offensive snaps and is a solid starting back in terms of workload.
On the flip side, the Vegas passing attack is in play. Kirk Cousins ($5,800) has taken just eight sacks through six games, whether due to his own abilities or the Raiders offensive line. More importantly, the Rams’ defensive line ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate.
Building stacks around Williams (or Corum) and the Raiders passing attack is risky, as the Rams’ running back situation is fluid from a workload perspective, and even Cousins is at a slight risk of being benched. The build also relies on the Rams getting out to a large enough lead to overcome their top-10 PROE. However, we’re always trying to thread the needle in tournaments, so it’s worth a shot this weekend.
San Francisco 49ers OL (#5 in Adjusted Line Yards, #2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Atlanta Falcons DL
We have a similar situation in the 49ers-Falcons game, with at least one blocking unit projecting to do well for each team. For the 49ers, both run blocking and pass blocking rank in the top five among the 20 Week 7 main slate teams. For Atlanta, as always, it’s the run game projecting well, with the second-best matchup on the ground for the Falcons.
This one is a bit trickier, as points can come from anywhere in San Francisco. The Falcons are a below-average all-around defense, and the 49ers rank in the top five in both run and pass blocking. Plus, their top back Christian McCaffrey ($7,600) gets a lot of production from the passing game. Pairing him with Brock Purdy ($6,600) in an effort to capture all of the 49ers’ production (and double-dip on McCaffrey’s receiving yards/scores) is an interesting play.
That pairing is especially appealing if the Falcons can keep this close enough for a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson ($8,500), who should continue to have running lanes thanks to a solid offensive line and the 49ers ranking 20th in adjusted line yards defensively. The Falcons rank 30th in PROE, so unless this one is a complete blowout, he should get plenty of touches. Affording Robinson alongside the 49ers mini-stack is tricky, but all the players involved are in a solid spot.
Strong Defensive Line Matchups
Tennessee Titans DL (#1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. Cleveland Browns OL
After a couple of weeks where it looked like things might be turning around, Deshaun Watson ($5,200) has now taken 13(!) sacks over the past two games. Both of those were one-score games, with Cleveland winning one, so that’s not even a function of being forced into a high pass rate.
The lucky defense that gets to tee off on him this week is the Titans ($2,800), an overall middling unit in most defensive stats. The fact that they’re No. 1 by a healthy margin in adjusted sack rate this week says plenty about Cleveland’s offensive front.
They’re also fairly cheap and playing at home in the lowest-total game on the board, making them an elite option for all contest types.
Houston Texans DL (#2 in Adjusted Sack Rate) vs. New England Patriots OL
As far as premium D/ST units go, the Texans ($3,400) are a top choice. They have a top-five adjusted sack rate on the season and are facing a Giants team that ranks 25th in adjusted sack rate and will probably roll out turnover-prone Jameis Winston ($4,800) for at least the start of the contest this weekend.
No other team on the slate is currently favored by seven points, while Houston is -10 at the time of writing. Everything is pointing their way this week, and we might even get an ownership discount due to their price tag. Much like some of the offensive stacks mentioned, they’re a bit annoying to fit – but could prove to be well worth it.
Picture: Matthew Stafford, Rams offensive line
Photo Credit: Imagn
