Week 7 NFL DFS RB Breakdown: Top Cash Game and Tournament Picks

Nailing the running back spots is essential for constructing a solid DFS lineup. It’s a bit easier to project than the receivers, where touchdowns and big plays are going to result in weekly variance. The workloads for the top running backs are much more stable, so they’re typically more consistent fantasy producers.

However, that also results in some of the heaviest chalk you’ll see across the industry. How do you handle those players each week?

In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks

Christian McCaffrey ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)

The 49ers are getting dangerously low on pass-catchers. They were already without De’Zhaun Stribling, Deebo Samuel, Ricky Pearsall, and Demarcus Robinson, and now Mike Evans is expected to miss time. It leaves the team with an uninspiring group at receiver for their matchup vs. the Falcons.

The good news is that the 49ers don’t necessarily need to lean on their receivers. McCaffrey is one of the most accomplished receiving backs in NFL history, and they can easily crank up his volume a couple of notches moving forward. We saw that last week, when McCaffrey finished with 10 targets and nine receptions vs. the Commanders.

McCaffrey had a 36% target share in that contest, which represented a significant increase from his 18% mark across the first five weeks. McCaffrey had a 23% target share last year, and it was even higher when the 49ers were dealing with injuries at the start of the year. Even if he doesn’t get back to 36% in Week 7, he should pretty comfortably settle in the 25% range.

Combine his increased receiving potential with his touchdown upside – McCaffrey has seven scores in his past five games – and he’s back to being in contention for the top RB spot in fantasy. He led the position in fantasy scoring last year, and he’s available at a significant discount compared to the most expensive options at RB. It results in the top projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, while he’s No. 4 on FanDuel.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,800 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel)

While McCaffrey might be the better pure value (especially on DraftKings), it’s hard to knock the raw upside of Gibbs. He’s had the best workload in fantasy so far this season, racking up 85% of the Lions’ rushing attempts with an 18% target share. He’s also handled 93% of the carries from inside the five-yard line for one of the most potent offenses in football. Add it all up, and Gibbs has averaged better than 30 fantasy points per game.

The Lions are set to take on the Packers in Week 7, and that game unsurprisingly leads the slate with a 53.5-point total. The Lions are three-point home favorites, giving them a slate-best 28.25 implied team total.

Green Bay has also been an excellent opponent for RBs this season. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position, giving Gibbs and Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.5. Gibbs ultimately owns the top median and ceiling projections in our NFL Models, and he’s No. 1 in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus.

Chuba Hubbard ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)

There are a handful of appealing midrange options this week, but Hubbard stands out as arguably the best. He continues to dominate the touches in the Panthers’ backfield, and his usage only increased with A.J. Dillon sidelined last week. He played on 93% of the team’s offensive snaps and handled 93% of their rushing attempts. Hubbard finished with 18.6 fantasy points, his fifth-straight finish inside the top 12 at the position.

Dillon should return to the lineup in Week 7. He was back at practice on Wednesday, which puts him on track to suit up vs. the Buccaneers. Still, he’s not a real threat to Hubbard’s workload. Even if Dillon steals a couple of carries, Hubbard has had at least 80% of the team’s rushing attempts in three straight games.

Hubbard’s price tag continues to creep up, but it’s 100% deserved. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all five games on FanDuel, and he’s had a Plus/Minus of at least +11.8 in three of them. He remains way too affordable across the industry. 

Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks

Woody Marks ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)

Marks was expected to take on less responsibilities in his second season than he did as a rookie. The team traded for David Montgomery, and he handled most of the rushing attempts through the first four weeks.

Unfortunately for Houston, Montgomery went down with an injury in Week 5. Jawhar Jordan also suffered an injury last week, leaving the team with basically just Marks in the backfield moving forward.

Marks has an 81% snap share over the past two weeks, and he’s handled 60% of their carries. Those figures only figure to increase against the Giants, and it’s a great spot for him to do some damage. The Texans are listed as massive 10.5-point favorites, and bell-cow RBs tend to crush in that split. Lead runners have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.92 when favored by more than a touchdown (per the Trends tool).

Add in a cheap price tag, and Marks stands out as one of the strongest tournament options on the slate. He leads all running backs in SimLabs optimal lineup rate.

Kyren Williams ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)

Like with the 49ers, the bodies continue to fall by the wayside in Los Angeles. Davante Adams is the most recent casualty. He’s set to miss the next 6-10 weeks with a hamstring injury, and so he’ll join Terrance Ferguson on the sidelines in Week 7. Those are arguably two of the Rams’ top three pass-catchers, so they’re going to have to look elsewhere for production.

Puka Nacua should continue to be one of the busiest players in the NFL, but he can’t do everything for the offense. Williams is someone who can certainly chip in as a receiver. He has a 16% target share for the year, which ranks sixth at the RB position. That figure has jumped up to 20% over the past three weeks.

As far as the rushing attempts, Williams typically splits those pretty evenly with Blake Corum. However, Williams has a clear edge in terms of short-yardage opportunities (84%), and there have been games where he’s eclipsed 70% of the carries overall. It gives him a very stable floor with a bell-cow type of ceiling.

Williams ultimately stands out as underpriced on DraftKings. His $7,000 salary comes with an 81% Bargain Rating, while he trails only McCaffrey and Gibbs in projected Plus/Minus.

Bijan Robinson ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel)

Robinson figures to be the odd man out at running back this week. Much of the attention will be focused on Gibbs and McCaffrey, and deservedly so. However, that means Robinson should be available at an ownership discount. He’s currently projected for roughly 13% ownership on DraftKings, while his optimal lineup rate is closer to 18%.

Robinson is coming off back-to-back quiet games, but he remains one of the best players in football at his position. He’s averaging a career-best 5.8 yards per attempt as a runner, and he’s a threat to turn any touch into a long touchdown. Robinson is also an elite pass-catcher, and he leads the NFL with 785 scrimmage yards through six weeks.

The only real question is how many touches Robinson will get on a week-to-week basis. They played from behind last week vs. the Bears, which took Robinson out of the equation. They’re just 2.5-point home underdogs vs. the 49ers, and as long as this game remains competitive, Robinson should provide his usual production.

Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside

Braelon Allen ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)

Breece Hall has yet to return to practice for the Jets, and it’s possible that the team is without his services once again this week. That would make Allen a fantastic value target. He’s served as the team’s clear bell-cow with Hall out of the lineup recently, racking up an 88% snap share and 80% carry share over the past three weeks. He’s even chipped in just a bit as a pass-catcher, which is not something he was known for previously.

If Allen can maintain that role vs. the Dolphins, he could be poised for his best game to date. The Dolphins are probably the worst team in football, and opposing RBs have torched them so far this season. They’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the position, giving Allen an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.4 on DraftKings.

The last time Allen took the field as a favorite, he tallied 24 carries, 116 yards, and a touchdown vs. the Browns. He finished as a top-six scorer at the position, and he has arguably even more upside vs. the Dolphins.

Bucky Irving ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)

Irving had a phenomenal performance two weeks ago vs. the Cowboys, finishing with 165 rushing yards, 10 receiving yards, and two total touchdowns. He came back to reality last week vs. the Steelers, but that was a significantly tougher opponent. He still had 19 carries in that contest, and with Jalon Daniels expected to make another start, he should be the focal point of the offense once again.

This week’s matchup vs. the Panthers should be significantly more favorable. They rank 24th in EPA per rush defensively, and Irving owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.1. He also stands out as one of the better pure values on DraftKings, where his $6,100 salary comes with an 88% Bargain Rating.

Aaron Jones ($6,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)

Jones has had a good recent run as the Vikings’ top running back, but those days could be coming to a stretch. Jordan Mason is practicing in full this week, and the team has officially designated him to return from IR. That’s not a guarantee that he’s in the lineup vs. the Colts – the Vikings have 21 days to activate him – but he appears on track to return to the lineup.

That’s a definite negative for Jones, but it’s possible that Mason is limited in his first game back. It’s also possible that there’s enough work to go around for both of them this week. The Vikings are listed as 6.5-point favorites, and the Colts offense has looked awful in recent weeks. The Vikings could ride their defense to an early lead, which would give both RBs opportunities to chew up yards and clock.

Jones is also the rare RB who actually has a cheaper price tag on FanDuel than DraftKings. It unsurprisingly results in a 99% Bargain Rating, and he ranks third on FanDuel in projected Plus/Minus.

Tony Pollard ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel)

The Titans got on the board with their first win of the season last week, and Pollard saw a season-high 19 carries in that contest. That’s not a huge shocker. The Titans have arguably the worst passing attack in football, so they’d love to give Pollard the ball as much as the game script will allow.

This is another week where the Titans should be competitive. They’re listed as just 1.5-point underdogs vs. the Browns, and points are expected to be at a premium. It seems extremely unlikely that the Browns can turn the game into a blowout, so Pollard should be locked into a solid workload.

He’s another player who stands out as a nice option on FanDuel. He ranks fifth in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s second in Sim Labs optimal lineup rate.

Pictured: Christian McCaffrey
Photo Credit: Imagn