The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Gavin Williams (R) $9,800 Cleveland Guardians (-195) vs. San Francisco Giants
In his four seasons in the majors, Gavin Williams has increased his average fastball velocity every year. In 2026 he’s sitting at 97.3 miles per hour, which is elite for a starter. Along with it, he’s had a corresponding increase in strikeout rate, with that mark now sitting at 31.8%, third-best in all of baseball.
That makes him an elite DFS option, as evidenced by his four-game stretch of consecutive games with at least 33 DraftKings points and double-digit strikeouts per contest. Throwing that hard also tends to lead to him getting hit hard when batters do connect, though, with his 24 home runs allowed also a top-ten mark among all pitchers.
On the other hand, you could point to his 17.5% fly-ball rate, which is well above league average, as “bad luck” and a figure due for regression. Williams has a solid but unspectacular 3.74 ERA, with his xFIP and SIERA under 3.00, so one could argue he’s due for some positive regression on top of his borderline elite fantasy production.
Today he faces an almost exactly average Giants lineup (at least against righties), so his typical performance is probably a pretty safe estimate of where he’ll land. The Giants have a slate-low 3.0-run implied total, which is another hint that this is a good spot. He leads all starters in median and ceiling projections and is tied for the Pts/Sal lead, making him a top overall option now that we’re free of the Dodgers’ extremely expensive hitting stack today.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Ian Seymour (L) $8,800 Tampa Bay Rays (-165) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Seymour is the starter tied with Williams in Pts/Sal projection, with the two of them expected to garner the bulk of the ownership on the six-game afternoon slate. That’s a small enough field that you probably don’t want to lean into both of the chalk pitchers, making Seymour an interesting pivot from Williams that saves a bit of salary.
Seymour has similar overall numbers to Williams, with a 28.8% strikeout rate and an ERA just over four. While that ERA is on the high side, his underlying numbers suggest he’s more like a mid-threes ERA pitcher. Those are a bit misleading, though, since he spent the first half or so of the season as a reliever. As a starter, his ERA is about half of a run higher, but he’s also struck out a higher percentage of his opponents, so it’s a bit of a mixed bag.
What potentially gives him the edge over Williams is the matchup. Toronto has the worst wRC+ in all of baseball against southpaws, trailing even the lowly Rockies by a couple of points. While they don’t strike out at a massive rate, Seymour needs more help in the run-prevention department than with strikeouts, so that’s probably fine.
All of that makes him an interesting pivot for tournaments in at least some chunk of your lineups. For cash games, it makes sense to play both Williams and Seymour and spend down at hitter since they clearly stand out over the rest of the field.
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MLB DFS Tournament Picks
Robert Gasser (L) $7,700 Milwaukee Brewers (-130) vs. Seattle Mariners
After getting shut out on Tuesday, the Mariners scored seven runs last night, all of them coming in the first two innings against Milwaukee’s starter. That was a right-handed starter, though, and tonight they’re facing lefty Robert Gasser. Seattle has some extreme platoon splits, with an 18-point drop-off in wRC+ when facing lefties. That makes Gasser worth a look despite his mediocre 4.54 ERA, if for no other reason than as a contrarian option on a chalky slate.
Gage Jump (L) $7,500 Athletics (+122) at Kansas City Royals
Kansas City doesn’t have a massive fall-off when facing left-handed starters the way Seattle does, but it’s a below-average offense overall. More importantly, this game is in Kansas City, which frees A’s starter Gage Jump from his awful home park factors in Sacramento. Jump has a solid 25% strikeout rate but a 4.50 ERA. His underlying numbers are mostly below 4.00, though, largely thanks to a difficult ballpark. His home/road splits paint an even clearer picture, with an ERA over six at home and just 2.60 on the road, making him worth a look at a reasonable price tag in an effectively average stadium.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
One of the reasons it makes sense to spend up at pitcher this afternoon is the comparatively weak hitting options. The top implied total on the board belongs to the Cardinals at just 4.7 runs, though fortunately they’re priced appropriately for their total.
That is a nicer way of saying they’re pretty cheap for being the day’s top stack, leaving plenty of available salary for pitchers. They have a winnable matchup against Brady Singer, who comes into the contest with a 4.66 ERA but underlying numbers north of five. They also get a big park factor upgrade by virtue of this game being in Cincinnati.
St. Louis is, ultimately, a slightly below-average offense overall, but the combination of matchup and circumstance gives them some upside today. The chalk build today will likely be the Cardinals paired with Williams and Seymour, which is fine for cash games and smaller tournaments, but I’d swap at least one of those parts for larger tournaments.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Matt Olson 1B ($5,500) Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox (Anthony Kay)
After the Cardinals, the Braves have the best implied total of any road team (and narrowly miss the #2 spot overall), making them my favorite stack to pivot to. They’re facing White Sox lefty Anthony Kay in Chicago with some vaguely positive hitting weather. The Braves are a slightly below-average team against lefties, but I turned to PlateIQ to see if any hitters buck that trend:
Surprisingly, the left-handed Olson has by far the best numbers. The sample size of over 200 plate appearances is also plenty big, so it seems like the same-side matchup doesn’t bother him at all. The lefty-on-lefty matchup also has pushed his projected ownership below five percent, making him an elite one-off for lineups trying to be a bit contrarian.
Zack Gelof 3B/OF ($4,500) Athletics at Kansas City Royals (Randy Dobnak)
I’m always slightly wary of rostering A’s hitters on the road, since any stadium except Coors is a considerable park factor downgrade. I’m willing to break that rule a bit today, though, as they take on Randy Dobnak in Kansas City. Dobnak has a 1.73 ERA through six starts this season but is a major regression candidate, with his xERA and SIERA about 3x that number.
With many of the A’s top hitters missing from their lineup, Gelof is the best option. He’s eligible at multiple positions, making him easy to fit around stacks, and has an .821 OPS this season while adding nine steals in 76 games. At $4,500, that’s a solid combination, as Dobnak’s luck is likely to run out very soon.
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Pictured: Gavin Williams
Photo Credit: Imagn
