The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Jose Caballero ($2,500): Second Base, Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have invaded the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. Although they’ve yielded sub-optimal results through the first two games of the series, we’re anticipating a more robust showing spearheaded by an undervalued Caballero.
The M’s second baseman heads into the series finale on a modest three-game hitting streak, earning a promotion to the leadoff spot on Wednesday night. He’s projected to bat near the top of the order again on Thursday and should build off his recent performances. Five of his last 13 hits have gone for extra bases — including two homers — while producing ten RBI and seven runs scored across that stretch.
Domingo German takes to the mound for the New York Yankees off his worst start of the season. The soft-throwing righty gave up seven runs in 2.0 innings last time out, giving up seven hits and two walks. Caballero and the Mariners will perpetuate those stats on Thursday night.
Jesus Sanchez ($2,600): Outfield, Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins are tasked with getting to Mitch Keller on Thursday night. Keller has been a revelation for the Pittsburgh Pirates this year but has seen a decline in his metrics this month. Conversely, the Fish continue to churn out playoff-worthy metrics and are poised for another strong showing at home.
Sanchez remains a fixture in the heart of the Marlins’ lineup, but his salary doesn’t reflect his true fantasy potential. The 25-year-old has a .500 slugging percentage this season and has rekindled his power stroke lately. His last three have gone for doubles, elevating his slugging percentage to .571 at home. Still, there’s room for improvement, as Sanchez is below his expected value.
This month, Keller has been torched for ten earned runs, 15 hits, and three homers across 17.1 innings. That ineffective form plays into Sanchez’s strengths as he looks to sustain his torrid pace this evening.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Shane McClanahan ($10,300 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
The MLB-leading Tampa Bay Rays trot their ace to the mound for another elite fantasy showing against the Kansas City Royals. McClanahan is far and away the best pitcher available on tonight’s docket and should make short work of the visiting Royals.
McClanahan continues to flash some of the filthiest stuff in the bigs. The AL Cy Young frontrunner induces at least a 23.8% swing-and-miss rate on all of his offerings, contributing to a whiff rate that puts him among the top 9% of MLB pitchers. Moreover, he can turn to his changeup, curveball, or slider as put-away pitches, helping him strike out 27.2% of batters. Additionally, the southpaw has reserved his best efforts for Tropicana Field, where he is 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA.
The Royals should offer little resistance, as they rank as one of the worst-hitting teams in the majors. Those issues have been compounded against lefties, with Kansas City accumulating the fourth-most strikeouts and eighth-worst slugging percentage. Those factors play into McClanahan’s slate-best median and ceiling projections.
Hitter
Julio Rodriguez ($5,100 DraftKings, $3,700 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees
Rodriguez is still looking to recapture his AL Rookie of the Year form. Thankfully, the Mariners’ centerfielder has shown signs of progression over his recent sample. J-Rod has five hits over his past five games, including two multi-hit efforts, two extra-base hits, and four stolen bases. Overall, he’s increased his wOBA to .342 and ISO to .203 against right-handers over the past 30 days, both of which represent increases over his full-season marks (per PlateIQ):
Analytically, Rodriguez is still a stud. He ranks in the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate and 91st percentile in average exit velocity while posting an above-average barrel rate, expected slugging percentage, and batting average. Further, Rodriguez adds an extra dimension on the base paths, recording 19 stolen bags this season. More impressively, he’s nabbed 11 straight without getting caught. That’s validated by his elite speed metrics, which put him in the top 3% of players in sprint speed.
In reconciling Rodriguez’s analytics with his traditional stats, the 22-year-old is due for a breakout performance. That’s reflected in our aggregate projections, which rate J-Rod as the median and ceiling leader on the evening slate.
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More MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
Pitcher
Mitch Keller ($9,900 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
With only three contests on the evening slate, there’s a limited amount of starting pitchers available. Although Keller has struggled over his past few starts, he appears to have bottomed out, and the pendulum should start swinging in the other direction.
At his best, Keller has been unhittable. The former second-round pick had a stretch of 16.0 scoreless innings, including a complete game shutout, allowing a paltry four hits and one walk. That was part of a more significant stretch, posting a 2.02 ERA with seven quality starts in eight outings.
Since then, Keller has given up at least four runs in four of five starts but is showing green sprouts in his metrics. Two starts ago, Keller allowed just two hits and one run across 7.0 innings versus the New York Mets, and he’s struck out 14 over his past two starts.
We’ve seen Cy Young-caliber metrics from Keller this year. Granted, he’s been off the mark lately, but we still like him to continue his upward trajectory and reach his fantasy ceiling against the Marlins.
Hitters
Randy Arozarena ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Royals
Arozarena is putting together an MVP profile this season. The former Rookie of the Year is posting team and league-best metrics and should have no problem getting to Royals’ starting pitcher Jose Cuas on Thursday.
Arozarena leads the AL with a .409 on-base percentage and is the Rays’ pacesetter in RBI and home runs, ranking second in runs and fourth in stolen bases. More importantly, Arozarena’s metrics suggest ongoing success at the plate. The right-handed batting outfielder has a gaudy 16.6% barrel rate and 50.3% hard-hit percentage, yielding a .502 expected slugging percentage.
Practically, those metrics are playing out on the field over Arozarena’s past few outings. Over his last five games, Arozarena has eight hits, two round-trippers, six driven in, and four runs scored. Cuas sits in the 1st percentile in barrel rate and 6th percentile in hard-hit rate, assuring that Randy maintains his current form in the series opener.
Anthony Rizzo ($4,200 DraftKings, $2,800 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Mariners
Aaron Judge‘s absence has thrown the Yankees lineup into disarray. Different players have been called upon to stabilize the top of the batting order, with various levels of success. Although Rizzo was mired in a slump at the start of the month, he’s improved his performances of late. We expect him to live up to expectations in Thursday’s tilt against the Mariners.
Rizzo rakes at home. The three-time All-Star has an impressive .923 OPS at Yankee Stadium this year, with eight of his 11 homers and 15 of 22 extra-base hits coming in his friendly confines. Predictably, this has also positively impacted his run production at home. Rizzo’s accounted for 42 runs in the Bronx, compared to 29 on the road.
Rizzo’s fantasy value has plummeted this month, dragging his salary down. That makes him the ideal buy-low candidate as he maintains his home metrics and insulates the top half of the Yankees’ order.
