The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Drew Rasmussen (R) $8,500 Tampa Bay Rays (-153) vs. Los Angeles Angels
The Tampa Bay Rays continue to defy expectations seemingly on a yearly basis. They currently have the best record in the American League, including a sparkling 20-5 record at home. They rank seventh in team ERA and eighth in runs per game, despite ranking just 24th in payroll.
Rasmussen has emerged as the team’s ace pitcher over the past few seasons. He’s had a sub-3.00 ERA for five straight years, and he’s at 2.78 once again this season. He’s not an elite strikeout pitcher (8.35 K/9), but he makes up for it with a 97th percentile walk rate, 85th percentile ground-ball rate, and 81st percentile hard-hit rate.
Rasmussen stands out in terms of his Vegas data on Saturday. His 3.2 opponent implied run total is tied for the top mark on the slate, and he’s the biggest favorite of the day at -153.
Rasmussen also draws a fantastic matchup vs. the Angels. Not only is their lineup below average, but they also strike out at an extreme rate. Their 25.7% strikeout rate vs. right-handers is the worst mark in the league by a pretty significant margin. That gives Rasmussen a higher ceiling than usual to go along with his consistent floor. He ultimately leads all pitchers in projected Plus/Minus.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Christian Scott (R) $6,700 New York Mets (-132) vs. Miami Marlins
The Mets have had more than their fair share of issues this season, but Scott has been one of the lone bright spots. He returned to the rotation after missing all of last year while recovering from injury, and he has more than held his own at the MLB level. He’s pitched to a 3.20 ERA while striking out 10.66 batters per nine innings across his six starts.
Scott hasn’t been asked to pitch too deeply into games, averaging fewer than five innings per start, but he did get to 5.2 innings in his last outing. That came against the Marlins, whom he will face once again on Saturday. He didn’t allow a single run in their previous matchup, finishing with 18.55 DraftKings points and a +7.04 Plus/Minus.
Scott remains extremely affordable for the rematch, and he has strong Vegas marks. His 3.4 opponent implied run total is the third-best mark on the slate, and he’s also a -132 favorite. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas odds have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.44 (per the Trends tool). He ranks fourth on the slate in projected Plus/Minus and is a nice way to save some salary at SP2.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Parker Messick (L) $8,600 Cleveland Guardians (-130) vs. Boston Red Sox
Messick has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He’s pitched to a 2.24 ERA and 9.79 K/9, and he’s helped the Guardians jump to the top of the AL Central standings. He gets a matchup vs. the lowly Red Sox on Saturday, who are a dismal 28th in runs per game this season. Messick’s 3.2 opponent implied run total is tied with Rasmussen for the best mark on the slate, while his $8,600 salary comes with a 94% Bargain Rating.
Reid Detmers (L) $7,500 Los Angeles Angels (+129) at Tampa Bay Rays
Detmers will be an underdog vs. Rasmussen and the Rays, but there’s no denying his upside at $7,500. He’s coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, tossing eight innings with 14 strikeouts vs. the Rangers. The Rays will be a tougher matchup, but Detmers has elite upside for his price tag, as he ranks in the 85th percentile for strikeout rate this season.
Brandon Sproat (R) $6,000 Milwaukee Brewers (-117) at Houston Astros
Like the Rays, the Brewers continue to exceed expectations annually. They’re atop the NL Central standings once again this season despite losing ace pitcher Freddy Peralta this offseason. Sproat was part of the return for Peralta, and he’s put together some solid results recently. The former top prospect has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four outings, and he’ll face an Astros’ lineup that ranks 29th in runs per game on Saturday. He’s third on the slate in projected Plus/Minus, and he’s projected to carry almost no ownership.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected Plus/Minus belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates are not a team that is typically in contention for top stack of the day. However, they overhauled their lineup this offseason, and it has started to pay dividends. They’re up to sixth in the league in runs per game, and they’re sixth in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers.
Their matchup Saturday vs. Bailey Ober doesn’t exactly jump off the page. Ober is a decent starter, and he owns a 3.92 ERA and 3.73 xERA for the year.
That said, the weather in Pittsburgh looks extremely favorable for hitters on Saturday. The current forecast calls for winds blowing out toward right field, which should help the left-handed batters in particular. Ober has already surrendered 1.91 homers per nine innings in that split this season, so it’s an elite spot for the Pirates’ lefties.
Four of the five batters in this stack will hit from the left side, with super-prospect Konnor Griffin the lone exception. Each of those batters has posted solid figures against right-handers dating back to the start of last season (via Plate IQ):
Add in the fact that Ober has been dismal on the road this season (6.30 ERA), and the Pirates end up with the top implied team total on the main slate.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Taylor Trammell, OF ($2,300) Houston Astros vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Brandon Sproat)
Given the Astros’ offensive struggles this season, they’ve started to look at some alternatives in their lineup. That includes Trammell. He’s one of the few batters who has produced for Houston this season, posting a 148 wRC+ across 48 plate appearances.
Trammell’s underlying metrics aren’t quite as impressive, but he’s going to bat cleanup for the Astros on Saturday. It’s rare to get a cleanup batter at nearly the minimum price, especially one that’s on the positive side of his splits. He ranks first in the blended projection set in projected Plus/Minus, while the Astros stand out as a solid team target against Sproat. They have the third-highest implied team total on the slate, so perhaps their lineup will break out in this spot.
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B ($3,500) Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers (Kumar Rocker)
Pasquantino went on a tear last season, clubbing 32 homers to shatter his previous career best of 19. Unfortunately, he’s been unable to carry that success into this season. He has just five homers so far this season, while his batting average has dipped to a paltry .206.
Still, Pasquantino has a solid track record of production, even if his power outburst last year might be a bit fluky. He should be able to get back on track eventually, and a matchup vs. Rocker could be just what the doctor ordered. Rocker allows tons of hard contact, especially against left-handed hitters. Pasquantino’s salary is down to a point where he’s a very reasonable buy-low target.
Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B ($4,300) San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals (Foster Griffin)
Speaking of buy-low options, what the heck has happened to Tatis? The Padres’ superstar is somehow still looking for his first home run of the season despite racking up 205 at-bats. That’s almost unfathomable for a guy with a 42-homer season on his ledger.
Tatis is still making solid contact; he’s just not getting the ball in the air enough for that to matter. His 51.9% hard-hit rate puts him in the 94th percentile, so once he starts elevating the ball, it should eventually start to leave the yard.
Even without the long ball, Tatis has been a nice source of production recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his last nine games, and he’s had at least double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five outings.
Pictured: Drew Rasmussen
Photo Credit: Imagn
