The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Logan Webb ($10,200) San Francisco Giants (-192) at Athletics
Webb has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection on the board this Saturday night, and he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus. He holds those distinctions in both the FantasyLabs projections and the projections from THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders.
The location at Sutter Health Park isn’t ideal, and the Athletics do have some power potential in their lineup, but the Giants’ ace has been excellent lately, and is the best play on the board if you have the salary for a stud.
Webb is 7-6 in his 18 starts with a 2.61 ERA, 2.32 FIP, and a 1.14 WHIP. His K% would be a new career high at 27.5%, and he has racked up 127 strikeouts in his 113 2/3 innings.
This will be his second start of the season against the Athletics. He went eight innings against them on May 16 in San Francisco, giving up just one run on five hits and earning 23.8 DraftKings points.
In his 18 starts, he’s averaging 21.8 DraftKings points per game, and he has shown both a high floor and a high ceiling. He has 16+ DraftKings points in seven straight and 10 of his last 11 games. He has also popped for at least 25 DraftKings points in four of those outings, including a big game against the Guardians in late June that earned him 31.55 DraftKings points.
Webb has a favorable matchup against Luis Severino ($6,700), who has struggled at home, and he should be set up for success on Saturday night as the top stud arm on the slate.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code FL55.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Luis Castillo ($8,700) Seattle Mariners (-186) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Castillo has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus behind only Webb on the slate for Saturday night. He actually has a lower opponents’ implied run total as he faces the Pirates, and his strikeout prediction is also second on the slate behind only Webb’s.
While he hasn’t been as consistent as Webb, Castillo is 4-5 in his 17 starts, with a 3.55 ERA and 4.13 FIP. His K% has dropped sharply from last year, but the 32-year-old has still managed to be effective. He has a 2.60 ERA at home and a 3.23 ERA over his last nine outings, while his strikeout rate has ticked up a little as the weather has gotten warmer.
Castillo had 14.1 DraftKings points in his last start against the Rangers and has earned 13+ DraftKings points in three of his last four starts and seven of his last nine.
The Pirates are a great matchup for Castillo in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. The Pirates rank in the bottom five in the majors in runs scored, home runs, ISO, and wOBA. They have been a little better over the last two weeks and had actually won six straight at home before being shut out on Friday to start the series.
Castillo will look to continue the trend started by Bryan Woo on Friday and keep the Buccos’ bats quiet. Since he only has the fourth-highest salary on the board, he’s a great value with a high ceiling to consider Saturday night.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Stephen Kolek ($7,600) San Diego Padres (-136) vs. Texas Rangers
Kolek is tied for the second-highest Leverage rating on the board and brings solid upside to his matchup at home at pitcher-friendly Petco Park against the Rangers. He has had mixed results in his 11 starts, going 3-3 with a 3.73 ERA and 3.87 FIP, but he looked sharp enough in his last outing against the Reds to roll with him in this favorable spot against Texas.
Kolek went 5 2/3 innings against the Reds, racking up five strikeouts and allowing just one run to earn 18.35 DraftKings points in the no-decision. He has averaged 13.7 DraftKings points per start on the year, with a high point of 39.05 DraftKings points in an impressive outing in Colorado in a game the Padres won 21-0.
While he probably won’t get quite that much run support on Saturday, he will be set up well against the Rangers, who have only hit .229 on the road this season with a .297 wOBA, both of which rank in the bottom 10 in the majors. They have averaged just 3.7 runs per game on the road, so Kolek has a chance to keep them in check on Saturday night and help differentiate your lineup while also saving significant salary.
If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The Rockies haven’t been a great offense this season, even when playing at Coors Field, but their matchup with the White Sox on Saturday night is enough to earn them the top spot in our stacks. As a team, they’re actually fairly affordable as well, so there are definitely some strong options to consider. Jonathan Cannon ($6,100) has allowed 11 homers in his 13 games this season with a 45.3% hard-hit rate against him, a 4.59 ERA, and a 4.85 FIP. On the road, he has a 5.16 ERA and 5.11 FIP.
Lefties have done most of the damage against Cannon, so Ryan McMahon ($4,100) and Michael Toglia ($3,600) are both strong power plays from the corner infield spots. Tyler Freeman ($5,000) has stepped up as the Rockies’ leadoff hitter, averaging 8.9 fantasy points per game over his last 10 games.
Hunter Goodman ($5,600) is the most expensive bat in the stack, but he’s a good way to fill your catcher spot with offensive upside. He has shown a good ceiling, with an average of 11.4 fantasy points per game over his last 10, which includes four games of at least 12 DraftKings points.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries- you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Click here to find out how SimLabs can elevate your MLB DFS game and watch the video below.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
OF Cam Smith ($3,700) Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani)
Smith made some swing adjustments in May and has caught fire over the last few weeks. He and the Astros went off on the Dodgers on Friday night, and they’ll look to keep rolling on Saturday against Shohei Ohtani and bulk reliever Justin Wrobleski.
Through his first 50 games, the 22-year-old rookie was hitting .245 with three homers after his first 50 games, but since then, he has posted a .381 batting average in his last 24 games. He has double-digit DraftKings points in seven of his last eight games, averaging 15 DraftKings points per game over that stretch.
He is hitting .313 with a .449 wOBA against lefties on the year, so I especially like his matchup against Wrobleski after Ohtani leaves the mound. Smith has been smashing everything lately, and his batted ball metrics back up his recent surge in production, making him a great value option in the outfield Saturday night.
SS Willy Adames ($3,800) San Francisco Giants at Athletics (Luis Severino)
Adames and the Giants are at Sutter Health Park in a favorable matchup against Severino. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters outside of Coors Field in the aggregate projections. Adames has had a disappointing season so far in his first year for the Giants, but has been turning things around a little bit lately.
Adames has hit safely in four straight, going 6-for-15 with two doubles and a home run and averaging 10.6 DraftKings points per game. He is also 4-for-13 against Severino in their past matchups, with a home run and three RBIs.
Severino has a 6.79 ERA and 4.32 FIP at home at Sutter Health Park this season, so the Giants offer several interesting options to consider. Here’s how they look in our Plate IQ tool:
OF Jahmai Jones ($3,000) Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen)
Jones has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all outfielders under $3,400 and the fourth-highest of the outfielders under $4,000 on Saturday’s slate. He’s projected to hit in the leadoff spot for the powerful Tigers’ lineup as they take on lefty Logan Allen.
Jones had 16 DraftKings points by going 2-for-3 with a double in his last start, which was on Wednesday. Since joining the Tigers 20 games ago, Jones is hitting .343 with a pair of homers and a .458 wOBA.
He’s been used mostly against lefties, and he has gone 11-for-29 (.379) in the split with a .508 wOBA. If he’s hitting leadoff in such a great spot, he’s too great of a value to pass up at only $3,000 on Saturday night.
Interested in more MLB action? Check out the pick’ems on Underdog Fantasy with Underdog promo code LABS.
